190
FXUS63 KICT 131926
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
226 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon
  into the evening.

- Warming trend continues with triple digit heat indices on
  Friday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Currently, there is an upper-level ridge building into the Central
Plains with an embedded shortwave moving out of eastern Kansas into
the Middle Mississippi Valley. In our area, the warming trend has
begun with southerly/southeasterly flow returning at the surface
allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon
through the early evening. Instability has increased to
1500-2000 J/kg with the strongest instability in south-central
Kansas. Given the weak effective shear, any storm that develops
is not expected to be strong or severe. Considering the
expectation that activity would be very isolated, it has not
been included in the forecast.

By Thursday afternoon, the upper-level ridge axis will be over
western Kansas extending down into Texas returning northwesterly
flow to our area. Southerly flow at the surface will strengthen with
temperatures continuing to warm with highs reaching into the low to
mid 90s on Thursday afternoon.

Friday and beyond... This upper-level ridge will continue to shift
east and amplify as we move into the weekend. Mostly dry weather is
anticipated through Sunday. Thickness will start to increase on
Friday with heights expected to rise as we move into the weekend.
High temperatures will ramp back up into the mid to upper 90s by
Friday afternoon. Given dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s, some
areas could see temperatures in the lower 100s on Friday and
Saturday. Heat indices are expected to be between 100-105 Friday
through Sunday. Low precipitation chances may return to the forecast
Sunday night and Monday night, though there is uncertainty in the
upper-air pattern as well as the position of the cold front. Given
this uncertainty, confidence is low on precipitation chances. Stay
tuned as we refine this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the end of the
period. Southerly/southeasterly winds are anticipated to dominate
the scene over central and south central KS, while easterly
winds prevail through most of the period in southeast KS.

Latest short-term guidance continues to suggest the potential for an
isolated thunderstorm through the late afternoon and early evening
primarily across south central KS. However, confidence remains too
low for a mention at any site at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JWK