274
FXUS63 KICT 281704
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1204 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are expected this morning over southern/southeast
  Kansas with another round of storms this afternoon/tonight for
  mainly southeast Kansas

- Showers and storms look to become more numerous for Sunday night
as a frontal boundary pushes southward across Kansas

- Most areas look to remain dry for Monday-Thursday next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Low level moisture transport looks to increase early this morning
across northeast Oklahoma which should spark off scattered to
numerous showers/storms. Some of this activity will spread north
into southern/southeast Kansas before daybreak, and linger over
southeast Kansas through the morning hours. A few storms could
redevelop later this afternoon/evening over north central
Oklahoma and drift northeast into parts of south central Kansas.
Otherwise the better area tonight for showers/storms to
redevelop will be over eastern Kansas into western Missouri as
low level jet/moisture transport is focused in that location.
Once again not expecting severe weather due to wind shear being
rather weak. Heading into Sunday temperatures will warm even
more especially over central Kansas where upper 90s are likely.
A surface frontal boundary will push slowly southward from
Nebraska into Kansas with scattered to numerous storms
developing along the front. This activity will spread southeast
across Kansas with a few of the stronger storms capable of
torrential downpours and downburst winds up to 60mph due to high
DCAPE values.

The frontal boundary will continue to push slowly southward into
Oklahoma on Monday and this could be accelerated due to
convective cold pools from Sunday nights activity. Most of the
area should be dry on Monday in the wake of the frontal passage
although there is a small chance for a few storms over far
southeast Kansas. The weather pattern looks dry for most areas
Tuesday-Thursday as upper level ridging builds over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24
hours as showers and storms in SE Kansas finally pull off to the
east. There is again another chance for storms to impact KCNU
tomorrow morning as we could see a repeat of this morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...SGS