293
FXUS63 KICT 191122
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
522 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy with very high to extreme grassfire danger this
  afternoon.

- Near or below average temperatures through Monday.

- Light snow and flurries mainly across central Kansas late
  Friday into Friday night. Accumulation less than one-half
  inch.

- Warming trend as we move into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A shortwave trough was evident on water vapor imagery emerging from
the Rockies over the Central/Northern Plains early this morning. Low
pressure at the sfc over the Central High Plains is progged to move
ESE through the morning hours tracking across south central Kansas
early in the day before arriving over northeast Kansas by midday.
This will allow a cold front to arrive by lunch time for areas west
of the Kansas Turnpike while spreading eastward into southeast
Kansas during the afternoon hours. Upstream temperatures across the
Northern High Plains were very cold ranging from the single digits
below zero to the teens. This modified arctic airmass will be
advected south today and maximum temperatures were trended lower,
especially in central KS where afternoon temperatures will likely
fall into the 20s before sunset. Relatively deep vertical mixing
ahead of the front will result in gusty southwest winds across
southern Kansas within a dry pbl resulting in elevated fire weather
concerns. Some pooling of dewpoints along the frontal zone may allow
for some temporary recovery in relative humidity before drier and
colder air is advected into the area in the post-frontal airmass.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the area early on Friday
resulting in light winds with below normal temperatures prevailing.
Another shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the Rockies late
Friday ushering in a reinforcing shot of cold air and bringing some
snow flurries or light snow to the area mainly on Friday night along
the I-70 corridor. We are not expecting big impacts with this
progressive system. A brief period of snow may be possible along the
frontal zone as the pv anomaly rotates over the area Friday night.
Some locations could see a light dusting before the light wintry
precipitation diminishes during the predawn hours on Sat.

Sat-Mon...Northwest mid/upper flow will prevail across the Central
Plains through the period with another reinforcing shot of cold air
possible on Sunday keeping temperatures below average through the
period.

As we move into Tue and beyond, a mid/upper ridge is progged to
translate eastward over the central CONUS bringing rising
heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures. Highs in the
60s and 70s are expected to return toward the middle of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

An area of low pressure over south central Kansas will move
slowly eastward through the day. Eventually south and southwest
winds in parts of south central and southeast Kansas will shift
to the northwest in the wake of a cold front. We could see some
25 or 30 knot gusts at times.

Winds will slowly decrease across the area as we move into the
evening hours with northwest around 10 knots toward morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A cold front will bring a wind shift to the area today, with gusty
northwest winds expected behind the front. Gusts up to around 35 mph
are expected at times. This combined with low humidity and above
average temperatures will result in a very high to extreme fire
danger over southern Kansas, where a red flag warning is in
effect.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this
evening for KSZ072-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM