574
FXUS63 KICT 181855
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
155 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are likely this afternoon into the
  evening with additional isolated chances again on Sunday.
  Severe storms are not expected.

- Warming trend will continue into early next week with highs
  near 100 on Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices will be up to 110
  on Monday and Tuesday afternoons with the warmest values in
  southern KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Upper ridging remains over the Northern and Central Plains with a
weak upper low over western Texas. An upper trough is sliding across
the Great Lakes with an upper low moving onshore over British
Columbia and Washington. At the surface, expansive high pressure
sits over the Northern Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
A cold front extends down through the Great Lakes into central Iowa
from a surface low over the Quebec/Ontario border. In our area, the
airmass remains relatively the same with an uncapped environment,
sufficient instability and moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s
across much of the area. PWATs remain between 1.7-2" with the
highest values in southeast KS. This will result in isolated showers
and storms across our area with the most activity in southeast KS.
Shower and storm chances will decrease into the evening. Severe
weather is not expected with this activity due to the lack of wind
shear. The main impacts will be brief heavy rainfall and occasional
lightning. This airmass will likely remain the same for Sunday
afternoon making additional shower and storm chances possible with
chances again decreasing into the evening.

An upper high is progged to expand across the Central Rockies into
the Central Plains Sunday through Tuesday. The upper ridge over the
Northern Plains will deamplify slightly as an upper shortwave trough
slides across southern Canada into the Upper Mississippi Valley by
late Monday afternoon. Highs will be around 100 areawide on Monday
afternoon as above normal 850 mb temperatures are expected. Surface
dewpoints will range from the lower 60s in central KS to near 70 in
southeast KS. This will allow heat indices to rise up to 105 across
much of the area with values in southeast KS approaching 110. As the
upper shortwave traverses from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the
Great Lakes, a cold front a cold front will push south through the
Central Plains into our area by Tuesday morning. Depending on how
far south the cold front makes it by Tuesday afternoon will
determine high temperatures. Highs behind the front are progged to
be in the low to mid 90s with areas ahead of the front around 100.
The warmest heat indices will be in southern KS with values between
100-105 and areas near the KS/OK border approaching 110. This front
will push south of our area by Wednesday, returning high
temperatures to the low to mid 90s across our area. Northwesterly
flow aloft is progged to return mid to late next week which may give
way to better rain chances on both Wednesday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Light
southerly winds will continue with speeds generally under 10 kts.
Isolated showers and storms are likely this afternoon into the
evening with chances diminishing around sunset. Given the
limited coverage and low confidence on terminal impacts, did not
include in this issuance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...GC