516
FXUS63 KICT 222346
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
646 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms across south central KS this afternoon

- More widespread thunderstorm activity expected Friday morning -
  afternoon

- The active weather pattern continues throughout the weekend with
  many rain chances, especially at night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

As of 145 PM Thursday afternoon, broad northwest midlevel flow was
present across the central and southern Plains with a shortwave
trough moving through the mid-MO valley. A surface low has developed
across southwest OK with a warm front extending through north-
central OK. Modest low-level WAA overtop the warm front has
allowed for the development of showers and storms across far
south-central KS. Latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings depict
400-500 J/kg of elevated instability above 700 mb. An
acceleration of winds above 700 mb are contributing to 30-40 kt
of effective shear. While severe weather appears unlikely with
the limited instability, the strongest updrafts may produce hail
up to dime size and wind gusts up to 40 mph. As an area of
surface high pressure builds into the area this evening the
best low-level WAA will be shunted west, ending the rain/storm
chance this evening.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will quickly return by Friday morning
as the low-level WAA pattern returns the forecast area. In addition,
a midlevel perturbation is forecast to eject into the area Friday
afternoon. This may set the stage for multiple rounds of
thunderstorm activity Friday. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to
steepen up to 8-8.5 C/km, contributing to elevated instability up to
1500 J/kg. Wind profiles strengthen with the approach of the
midlevel perturbation. Effective shear values are likely to exceed
40 kt. All of that to say, the WAA driven thunderstorms Friday
morning will be capable of hail up to golf ball size and heavy
rainfall. The second round is likely to form over northeast
CO/northwest KS Friday afternoon and propagate southeast throughout
the evening hours. Continued steep lapse rates will support a large
hail threat. Damaging winds will be possible as well with DCAPE
increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg. A third area of thunderstorm
development is possible Friday evening into Friday night on the nose
of strengthening LLJ. At this point the nose looks to set up along
Highway 400 or 50. Again, the background environment will support
elevated supercells with large hail up to golf ball size. The WAA
axis will shift south and east through the overnight hours Friday
into Saturday morning. While a shower or storm cannot be ruled out
Saturday, any activity should be isolated at best.

The next midlevel perturbation will traverse the area Saturday night
into Sunday morning in-conjunction with the return of a strong low-
level WAA pattern. This will set the stage for more thunderstorm
activity across much of the area. Again, the background environment
will remain conducive for elevated supercells capable of golf ball
size hail and heavy rainfall. This active period with multiple
rounds of showers and storms is expected to continue through the
weekend and into next week. One of the important questions is, how
much rainfall can we expect through early next week. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance give the entire area at least a 50% chance for
receiving 1+" of rainfall through early next week. Areas along and
southeast of the KS Turnpike stand a >50% chance for receiving 2+"
of rainfall through early next week. And finally, all of southeast
KS stands >50% chance for receiving 3+" of rainfall through early
next week. Given the recent heavy rainfall across southeast KS and
the additional heavy rainfall expected in the coming days, have
hoisted a flood watch for Allen, Wilson, Neosho, Chautauqua,
Montgomery, and Labette counties from 7 PM Friday through 7 PM
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Showers and storms are expected to develop during the morning
hours on Friday and persist through at least early afternoon.
Prior to storms, Light easterly winds and VFR will prevail.
Eventually widespread MVFR cigs are expected to overspread the
region on Friday afternoon. Some storm activity could linger
later in the day/evening but confidence in the details remains
low at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday evening through Monday evening for
KSZ072-095-096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...MWM