503
FXUS63 KICT 030836
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
336 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temps for today and Monday with much cooler
  conditions for Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

- Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday with our
  highest chances arriving for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not
  looking for any significant severe storms with this activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Currently have northwest flow aloft over the Northern and
Central Plains with an upper trough stretching from the eastern
Great Lakes region down into the Southern Appalachians. At the
surface, a weak cold front extends from central MN down into
northwest Nebraska.

Some weak upper energy is expected to slide south out of the
Northern Rockies today which will allow surface low pressure to
strengthen over southeast CO. At the same time, the weak cold
front over the Northern Plains will also sink south, and by
late this afternoon will stretch generally along I-70. Still not
looking for any convection to develop along the front this
afternoon due mainly to capping issues, with the better storm
chances across northern and central MO. Main story for today
will be much warmer temps, with much of the area seeing highs in
the mid and upper 80s. Normal highs for this time of year are
in the low 70s.

For Monday, an upper low will dig south across the south central
Canadian Provinces and eventually into the Northern Plains and
Western Great Lakes region. This will allow a stronger cold
front to surge south across the Northern/Central Plains, with
this feature forecast to move through our forecast area Mon
night into early Tue morning. Current thinking is that any
daytime convection on Mon will be tied to the front, which will
be well north of the forecast area. So our best storm chances
will likely be Mon evening, especially across eastern KS, where
mid level warm advection will be maximized along with better low
level jet convergence. Much of the convection will likely be
north of the front. The main threat with stronger storms will be
some small hail.

Models remain consistent in tracking a southern stream upper low
across the Desert Southwest on Tue with most of the energy
phasing with the northern stream trough as it digs across the
Central Rockies. This will bring another increase in rainfall
chances for Tue night into Wed in an area of strong mid level
frontogenesis. As the trough continues to swing east, the better
precip chances will also push east of the forecast area by Wed
night. Confidence is high that below normal temps will be in
place for both Tue and especially Wed. Highs on Wed are expected
to be around 15 degrees below normal as readings don`t make it
out of the 50s. We look to quickly get back into northwest flow
aloft for Thu which will get us back to seasonal temps and dry
conditions. Warming trend will continue as the weekend
approaches with 80s likely for both Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period.

South winds currently observed across the region will continue
across south central and southeast KS, while a cold front arriving
later today turns winds around to the north/northeast in central KS.
Confidence is somewhat low at this time in the boundary making it to
GBD before stalling out, so left out wind shift there for this
cycle. Speeds around 15 kts are expected areawide after sunrise
with gusts in excess of 25 kts possible especially during the
afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK