186
FXUS63 KICT 231742
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous morning showers across central KS; a few storms possible
  this afternoon and evening

- Much cooler air filters today into next week

- Several rain chances over the next 7 days; best chances Sunday
  night through Monday night and again Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

As of 3AM Saturday morning, quasi-zonal midlevel flow has overspread
the central Plains with the northern stream shortwave trough
dampening the ridge across the southern CONUS. The well-advertised
cold front extends from southeast CO through central KS and into
upper Midwest. A band of post frontal showers and storms continue
across central KS, though cloud tops have rapidly warmed over the
last 60-90 minutes. As the front continues to sink south this
morning, additional showers/isolated storms will remain possible.

The potential for thunderstorms may increase this afternoon and
evening for areas generally along and south of Highway 50. MLCAPE is
progged to increase up to 1500 J/kg as low-level lapse rates steepen
to 7-8 C/km. Despite an overall weak wind profile, backing winds
with some acceleration may yield 30-35 kt of effective shear. As
such, a stray strong or severe storm cannot be entirely ruled out
with hail up to quarter size the chief concern. Additional storms
may develop across the high Plains this afternoon/evening and
gradually propagate east and southeast. Surface ridging will build
into the eastern half of the state this evening/tonight. This will
shunt any residual instability to western KS. This should promote a
mostly dry night tonight into Sunday morning.

Surface ridging will become established into the northeastern half
of the state Sunday. Upslope flow across the high Plains is likely
to result in storm development Sunday afternoon. These storms will
progress east and southeast Sunday evening/night with the most
intense convection likely to remain within the instability gradient
across mainly western/southern-central KS. This paints the greatest
storm potential Sunday night for areas along/southwest of a line
from Great Bend to Wichita to Winfield. A 100 kt midlevel jet will
swing across the mid-MS valley Monday, leaving most of the state
within its right entrance region. This should promote additional
showers and storms. Again the best storm potential will remain
across southern and southwest KS, where the best instability will
reside. Additional shower and storm chances will continue throughout
the week with the best chances arriving Thursday as a shortwave
trough dives south from the northern Plains.

Aside from the rain chances, a drastic cool down is expected behind
the aforementioned cold front, currently across the northern Plains.
Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s Saturday and the
upper 70s to low/mid 80s Sunday. Expansive cloud cover and scattered
rain showers will hold temperatures in the 60s and 70s Monday and
Tuesday. 70s will remain common for the middle and latter portions
of next week!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A few MVFR ceilings linger across the area this afternoon.
Those will lift over the next few hours. Northerly winds around
10 knots will also relax going into the evening hours falling to
between 5-10 knots. Relatively light north-northeasterly winds
and mid-level clouds will persist through the overnight hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...AMD