166
FXUS63 KICT 051947
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- MCS likely tonight across mainly southern KS with heavy rain and
high winds the main threats.

- Another MCS likely Friday night, with heavy rain again
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Currently have upper trough extending from the Northern Rockies
down through central CA with a few embedded impulses within the
trough. One is lifting across northeast MO with another over
Northern Nebraska. Meanwhile, another upper impulse is sinking
south into the Great Basin. There are a couple surface features
to focus on. One looks to be remnant outflow across southern OK
into the TX Panhandle with a stationary front stretching across
Central TX.

Storms developed a couple hours ago across the TX Panhandle and are
moving into Western OK. This is associated with strong 850mb theta-e
advection and are likely elevated. Some surface convection has also
just developed over far southeast CO. This is the activity that is
expected to track east and expand as impressive low level jet sets
up and focuses into southern KS. Currently have a lean to the
WRF-ARW which is one of the only CAMs that did well with the
storms over the TX Panhandle and the activity over southeast CO.
While most of the area will likely see showers and storms
tonight, the best threat for heavy rain and severe storms still
looks to be over southern KS, where better instability will be
located. In addition, we are looking for PW values around 175%
of normal which will bring high rainfall rates. Unlike the heavy
rain event on Tuesday, the activity tonight will be much more
progressive, which should keep rainfall amounts from getting too
out of control.

By 12z Fri, storms are expected to be moving into central/eastern OK
and MO, which should leave most of the forecast area dry on
Fri. The best chance for daytime convection will be down along
an outflow boundary which is expected to be positioned across
central OK. There is good model agreement in shortwave energy
tracking out of the Northern Intermountain and across
Nebraska/northern KS Fri night. This will once again allow
850-700mb moisture transport to ramp-up, resulting in storms
developing over western KS early Fri evening and tracking
southeast through the overnight hours. It once again looks like
southern and southwest portions of the forecast area will have
the best chance at heavy rain and strong/severe storms.

Shortwave will be moving into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Sat
which will leave northwest flow aloft in place across the
Plains. Outside of some exiting morning convection Sat across
eastern KS, the remainder of the area looks dry for Sat, with
precip remaining out of the forecast for Sat night and Sun. By
00z Mon, a deep upper low is forecast to be situated over the
Upper Mississippi Valley into the Western Great Lakes region,
which will keep northwest flow in place across the
central/southern Plains. There will be a small chance for
showers/storms Sun night into Mon morning, but confidence is
very low in this panning out. Currently looks dry for Mon
afternoon-Wed with temps close to seasonal normals. Given the
expected pattern, confidence is high that we are not looking at
a significant warm-up at all through the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The initial area of light rain showers have moved northeast of
the terminals with lingering MVFR CIGS across portions of
central and eastern KS. The next batch of widely scattered
showers are expected across central after 20Z. Introduced a
PROB30 group at GBD, RSL, and SLN to account for this potential.
Strong to severe storms are likely to develop across western KS
and move towards central/south-central KS late this evening into
the overnight. Otherwise, a cold front will shift winds to the
north and northwest at 10-15 kt late tonight into Friday
morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning
for KSZ091>093-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BRF