246
FXUS63 KICT 130535
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms possible this afternoon through tonight,
  especially across south and southeast Kansas.

- Below-normal high temperatures through Sunday, then a slight
  warming trend to start the week.

- Opportunities for rain continue through the next seven days,
  with the best chances appearing mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a mid/upper shortwave
moving through the Central Plains with a vort max situated over
central Kansas. The resultant MCS partially decayed over southern
portions of the state late this morning and brought showers and a
few rumbles of thunder to the area early this afternoon. As it moves
eastward, the remnant MCV is expected to encounter ample, weakly-
capped surface instability later this afternoon, which should
continue to promote shower and thunderstorm development. Currently
thinking areas generally along/south of the Kansas Turnpike will see
the best chances for thunderstorm activity while the primary focus
for stronger storms will lie in Oklahoma. As the prior forecast
cycle highlighted, the strongest storms in southeast Kansas will be
capable of marginally-severe wind and small hail given a less
favorable setup than Friday. Per CAM ensembles, the slow-moving
system is progged to exit the southeast corner of the state sometime
Sunday afternoon/evening. Additionally, the slow movement of this
system may support a flooding threat to portions of southern
Kansas as showers and storms train over the area.

PRECIPITATION:

Abundant instability and relatively weak capping will allow for
shower and storm chances to linger over the area through Tuesday,
especially in southeast Kansas. Opportunities for widely scattered
showers and storms will return beginning Tuesday night through
Wednesday as a strengthening surface low develops and rolls in off
the High Plains. Additional frontal passages on Thursday and Friday
will keep rain chances in the forecast to close out the week.

TEMPERATURES:

Below-normal high temperatures (middle 80s to near 90) are expected
for one more day before a warming trend through Tuesday places highs
mostly in the middle to upper 90s. Repeated frontal passages to
close out the week will keep highs near normal (low to middle 90s)
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Conditions remaining fairly active through the overnight and
early morning hours.

After a break from widespread rainfall this past afternoon and
evening, additional showers and storms are developing across
locations along and east of the Kansas Turnpike early this
morning. Some showers and storms may produce moderate to heavy
rainfall, and may be accompanied by lower cigs. At worst, MVFR
to IFR conditions may occur between KICT and KCNU (along with
locations in between and surrounding these TAF sites) with any
shower or storm.

After 12Z, shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift
eastward, and mainly southeast Kansas (including KCNU and
surrounding locations) will need to monitor for the possibility
for isolated showers and storms. Other locations across the area
will generally see VFR conditions.

Surface winds over the entire area are expected to remain light
and variable through the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC