869
FXUS63 KICT 050914
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing drizzle this morning and associated travel impacts,
  especially during the morning rush.

- Fog likely tonight for areas along and east of the KS
  Turnpike.

- Below normal temps starting Sunday and continuing through most
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Cold front currently stretches from the Arklatex region through
Central TX with a shallow cold airmass still in place across
the Plains. In the upper levels, water vapor imagery shows a
couple different impulses. One lifting across the Pacific
Northwest, with another piece of energy tracking across eastern
WY/western Nebraska.

Most of south central and southeast KS are still getting a mix of
drizzle and BR with visibilities generally in the 3 to 6sm
range. Isentropic upglide in the low level saturated layer has
been a good indicator of where the drizzle has been occurring
and it has been fairly persistent over the last few hours. There
has been some consistency with the models in ramping up
isentropic lift/low level theta-e advection in the 12-15z time
frame with models also increasing the saturated layer by around
2,000 ft. Feel this will lead to more intense drizzle and
freezing drizzle this morning, possibly during the morning rush.
Previous forecaster mentioned ground temps in the mid/upper 30s
where freezing drizzle has been occurring, and this has likely
helped roads from getting too bad. However, we have seen an
uptick in accidents on overpasses here in Wichita overnight and
would expect this to continue, especially during the morning
rush.

Upper impulse is expected to move into western KS by this afternoon
and will veer the low level flow and push the better moisture
transport east as the day continues. So by around 18z, feel mainly
eastern KS will be seeing drizzle/light rain. The good news is that
most of that area should be above freezing by then. Did go
ahead and insert some fog for tonight as we really never get rid
of the low level moisture until the front comes through early
Thu morning.

Very progressive pattern will remain in place and there is good
model agreement that a fast moving upper perturbation will
track out of the Northern Intermountain and across the Northern
Plains by Sat morning. Ahead of this wave we are looking for
return flow starting back up for Fri and Fri night, with a cold
front moving through on Sat. This will bring a return to below
normal temps for Sun with below normal temps expected to
continue through at least Tue and possibly longer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

IFR to near-LIFR cigs are expected for a majority of the period as
drizzle and freezing drizzle persist through the morning hours. Best
chances for freezing drizzle remain in central and south central KS,
while precip should remain liquid in southeast KS. Current guidance
suggests cigs should lift from west to east by late afternoon and
early evening as temperatures gradually creep above freezing.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ050>053-
067>071-082-083-091>094.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK