825
FXUS63 KICT 192316
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
616 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/thunderstorms increasing in coverage from the south tonight
  and persisting through much of Sunday areawide. Pockets of
  heavy rainfall and localized minor flooding possible. Low-end
  severe weather potential generally along/east of the Flint
  Hills Sunday morning through mid-afternoon.

- After another chilly day Sunday, a warming trend is expected Monday
  through Thursday, possibly turning a bit cooler again by
  Friday.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances late Tuesday through Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

TONIGHT--SUNDAY...Expecting showers with embedded thunderstorms to
gradually expand in coverage from the southwest tonight through
Sunday, as a deep/powerful upper trough approaches from the
southwest and eventually ejects northeast across the
central/southern plains. Given the strong forcing amidst marginal
instability and seasonably high precipitable waters, pockets of
heavy rainfall are likely, which may produce some localized minor
flooding, especially over southeast Kansas. Widespread meaningful
rainfall is likely areawide (this is in addition to what`s already
occurred). HREF probabilities support central Kansas likely seeing
an additional 0.50-1.00+ inches, with locations further southeast
seeing an additional 0.75-2.00+ inches, highest over extreme
southeast Kansas. Rain should exit to the northeast by mid-late
afternoon Sunday.

In addition to the rain, the strong forcing coupled with marginal
instability and strong vertical shear may support a few strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms, especially from roughly the Flint
Hills on east Sunday morning through about mid afternoon. Thinking
the main threats will be small hail, 50-60 mph winds, and perhaps a
brief tornado given the potential for strong low-level shear. The
greatest potential for more numerous organized severe weather will be
just east of the forecast area across Missouri.

LATE TUESDAY--THURSDAY NIGHT...Deterministic and ensemble consensus
continues to support an active period thunderstorm-wise, as a pair
of cold frontal zones ooze south through the region Tuesday evening-
night, and again sometime Wednesday evening through Thursday night.
Per model climatologies, forecast moisture and instability look to
be seasonably high, although effective deep layer shear appears to
be only so-so. Therefore, localized severe thunderstorms along with
locally heavy rainfall appear possible, but organized widespread
severe weather looks unlikely at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue this evening,
especially over south central and southeast Kansas. This
activity is expected to become more numerous after 03-05Z and
continue into the day on Sunday with IFR/LIFR likely through
much of the day as a storm system approaches and moves over the
area. There may be a brief lull where the mid-level dry
intrusion moves through over parts of the Flint Hills or
southeast KS. Gusty northeast winds will gradually shift to the
northwest late in the day on Sunday as the sfc low lifts rapidly
northeast over the area, meanwhile a period of southerly flow is
expected over southeast Kansas as a warm front lifts north over
the area early in the day on Sunday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM