857
FXUS63 KICT 011742
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures to continue for today into early next
week

- Thunderstorm chances will increase across the region for late
Saturday night into Sunday, severe weather not expected

- Warmer temperatures to return for mid to late next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Below normal temperatures will prevail across the region for today
through the upcoming weekend, and extend into early next week.
Easterly flow in the low levels across the region today will create
a moist upslope regime which should cause scattered thunderstorms to
develop across the high plains later this afternoon. Weak westerly
flow in the upper levels will result in a slow eastward drift,
therefore not expecting storms to reach central Kansas tonight.
However there is a weak warm air advection at 700mb by short term
models for early Saturday morning associated with a weak upper level
wave. This looks to spark off elevated showers/storms mainly across
Nebraska southward into north central Kansas where better 700mb warm
air advection signal will reside. A few storms could try and extend
into central Kansas near I-70, but weak levels of shear/instability
will prohibit strong/severe potential. Heading into Saturday
night/Sunday morning the signal looks better for scattered to
numerous elevated showers/storms to affect central/south
central Kansas. Not expecting severe storms given weak
instability/shear but a few strong storms are possible.


A dry weather pattern looks to take shape for next week as upper
level ridge center expands eastward from the Rockies across the
central plains. This will allow temperatures to warm back up for mid
to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Widespread HZ will continue to impact all sites through much of
the the period. Fortunately, VSBY should remain in the 4-6 SM
range. A stray shower or storm is possible at RSL and SLN this
afternoon but confidence is not high enough for anything more
than a PROB30 group. Light easterly winds will increase from the
southeast at 10-15 kt by mid-morning Saturday. Showers and
storms are also possible near dawn Saturday across central KS
but confidence is too low for mention at this point.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...BRF