095
FXUS63 KICT 172008
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible this evening.

- Hot and humid conditions starting Friday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Currently, there is a stationary front along I-35 leaving a moist
air mass with dewpoints in the lower 70s in south-central to
southeast Kansas. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
possible into the evening in southern Kansas as instability
increases with surface heating. PWATS are expected to stay around
2.00", keeping support for efficient rainfall.

As we move into the overnight hours, some support remains for
showers and storms though chances are lower. The frontal boundary
will push further south near the KS/OK border allowing moisture to
continue to build. Uncertainty is high given the weak forcing. As we
approach Friday morning, the front will lift north as a warm front
returning southerly flow and drier conditions to the area. Stronger
southerly winds will increase WAA allowing afternoon highs to rise
into the mid 90s with some areas in southern Kansas seeing the upper
90s.

Saturday-Sunday... Our area will become more influenced by the mid-
level ridge starting on Saturday as it starts to amplify. Thickness
will continue to increase allowing temperatures to rise into the
upper 90s and lower 100s on Saturday and Sunday. Southerly flow will
continue keeping dewpoints in the 60s and 70s. As embedded weak
ripples continue to ride the upper-level ridge, low chances of rain
showers and storms will be possible through the weekend. This
is mainly in Central Kansas during the evening to overnight hours.

Monday-Thursday... Starting early next week, model consensus supports
the upper-level ridge amplifying more, allowing heights to continue
rising. With southerly flow persisting, hot and humid conditions are
expected daily. Overnight lows are expected to stay warm with most
areas in the mid to upper 70s. Upper-level flow will steer some
shortwave troughs into the Central High Plains making low
precipitation chances possible through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings remain across most of the region early this
afternoon. These ceilings are expected to slowly improve through
the afternoon however MVFR ceilings may remain possible for most
of the day especially across central Kansas. A few additional
showers and thunderstorms may develop this evening across
southeast Kansas however confidence on a direct impact on CNU
remain too low at this time to include any mention in the TAF.
Low ceilings are expected to develop and expand late tonight
into Friday morning across most of the region once again leading
to a period of MVFR to IFR ceilings at most sites. Winds will
remain light today primarily out of the northeast.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...WI