524
FXUS63 KICT 131918
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
218 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures are expected for Monday with
  warm conditions expected through much of the work week before
  a cooling trend into next weekend.

- Storm chances will increase Monday night in central KS as a
  cold front slowly pushes south with increased chances across
  the area on Tuesday. Strong to marginally severe storms are
  possible along with localized flooding.

- Additional periodic shower and storm chances will be possible
  from Tuesday night through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An upper trough is currently sliding across the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes as an upper low spins over the
northwestern US with ridging between these two features. At the
surface, a front is over northern Oklahoma and is starting to move
north. In our area, persistent mid-level WAA has resulted in
isolated showers and storms across south-central and southeast KS.
Isolated chances will remain possible in southeast KS for late this
afternoon into the early evening. Severe weather looks unlikely with
this activity given effective shear is around 20-25 kts with mid-
level lapse rates around 6 C/km, though some gusty winds and brief
heavy rainfall is possible given DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and
PWATs around 1.85" which is greater than the 75th percentile for
this time of year. As we move into tonight, storm chances will
decrease with our area remaining mostly dry overnight. Storm chances
will stay well off to our northeast as we continue into Monday
morning.

For Monday, the upper trough over the northwestern CONUS will
traverse into the Northern Plains by Monday afternoon. This will
strengthen the pressure gradient in the Central Plains, increasing
low-level southerly flow. Breezy winds are expected across much of
our area with sustained winds between 20-30 mph and gusts up to 35-
45 mph. The strongest winds are likely in central KS where a Wind
Advisory may be needed. Hot conditions are expected areawide as well
above normal 850mb temperatures are forecast. High temperatures will
be in the mid 90s to around 100 with the warmest temperatures along
and west of I-135. The aforementioned upper trough will push a slow
moving cold front into southern Nebraska by late Monday afternoon.
Shower and storm chances will be possible along and ahead of the
front as 850mb WAA increases, increasing chances in central KS
towards Monday evening and night. Severe storms are most likely
going to stay north of our area Monday night into Tuesday where
better wind shear will be, though a rogue strong gusty wind cannot
be ruled out in Russell or Lincoln County; however, chances remain
very low.

The front is progged to stall out across Highway 50 on Tuesday with
breezy northeasterly winds behind the front, affecting central KS.
This front will also result in a spread of temperatures on Tuesday
afternoon with highs in the 70s in northern KS to the mid 90s in
southern KS. Instability will increase along and south of the
boundary, increasing storm chances for much of eastern Kansas on
Tuesday afternoon into the night. Marginal severe storms may be
possible with effective shear around 30 kts. Heavy rainfall is
likely with any activity as PWATs approach the maximum value for
this time of year leading to potential flooding concerns especially
across central KS and portions of south-central. The frontal
boundary is likely to stay relatively in the same location for most
of the upcoming week. Additional weak upper shortwaves will slide
across the region, resulting in multiple rounds of possible storm
chances especially in central KS. For temperatures, warm conditions
are forecast to continue with highs in the 80s and 90s on Wednesday
and Thursday. Cooler temperatures are anticipated to arrive as we
move into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Main aviation concern will be shower and storm chances through
the afternoon hours.

Persistent 850mb-700mb theta-e advection has allowed scattered
showers and a few storms to persist through the morning and into
the early afternoon hours. This trend should continue for at
least the next few hours for areas along and especially east of
I-135. Strong or severe storms are not expected with this
activity. For tonight, the better storm chances will be
northeast of our forecast area. Gusty southwest winds are likely
for Mon afternoon, with gusts in the 30-35kt range likely along
and west of I-135.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds could
support very high fire danger west of I-135 Monday afternoon.
Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts
around 40-45 mph. That being said, antecedent rainfall and
dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire weather concerns
somewhat.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JC