130
FXUS63 KICT 171140
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
640 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances will quickly increase this evening with some
  large hail possible tonight.

- Severe storms still possible for Sunday afternoon and evening
  across a good portion of the area.

- Another round of severe storms Monday, especially across the
  Flint Hills into eastern KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low moving into the
Western great Lakes region with another upper impulse tracking
over Baja. Last but not least, more robust shortwave energy is
digging across Northern CA. At the surface, cold front extends
from central MO and through far southern KS.

Weak impulse over Baja will quickly track east and will be
moving into the Southern Plains by this afternoon. At the same
time, upper energy currently over CA will continue digging into
the Desert Southwest today into tonight. In response, rich low
level moisture will lift north today and tonight across the
Southern Plains. Confidence remains high that daytime storm
chances will remain south of the forecast area. However, shortly
after sunset, there is good model agreement that elevated
convection will quickly develop over southern KS and lift
quickly northeast through the evening hours. Looking for
2,000-3,000J/KG of elevated CAPE tonight with enough effective
shear for storms to generate large hail as they race off to the
northeast. At this time, it appears the Flint Hills into eastern
KS will have the better chances.

By 12z Sun, southern stream upper perturbation will be
approaching the Four Corners region while yet another piece of
energy starts to dive south across the Pacific Northwest.
Strong low level moisture advection will continue Sun morning
and should result in some drizzle and fog to areas generally
west of I-135 during the morning hours. By late Sun afternoon,
upper energy will be moving into western KS with a surface low
generally near the KS/CO border and a dry line extending in a NW
to se fashion across western KS. The NAM along with most short-
range models have pushed the dryline a bit further west compared
to runs 24 hours ago, with the GFS still further east. Still
have a slight lean to the further west dryline placement. The
main question for Sunday will be where is the warm front located
and how will low clouds and light precip affect afternoon storm
chances. In addition, there is pretty decent model agreement in
convection developing during the late afternoon near or north
of the warm front as 850-700mb moisture transport really ramps-
up. There is also still a chance we do see some storms on the
dryline over western KS, generally after 21z. Any storms that
develop on the dryline will have a great chance to quickly go
severe, with an abundance of instability and around 40-50kts of
effective shear. All severe wx hazards would be likely with
this activity. For the storms that develop near or north of the
warm front, large hail will be the main threat due to the
potential some of this activity could be elevated along with
messy storm interactions.

The initial upper impulse is expected to lift north and close-
off over western Nebraska on Monday as another upper wave and
strong upper jet moves into the Southern Plains. By 18z Mon, NAM
has the dryline setup generally along I-135 with the GFS and
ECMWF having this same feature a bit further east. What is very
impressive about Monday, is the 100-120KT upper jet moving into
north central OK/southern KS by 00z Tue. Plus, rich low level
moisture isn`t going anywhere, with upper 60s to around 70
dewpoints remaining. All severe weather modes will be possible
Mon east of the front/dryline, with some higher end severe
possible.

By Tue afternoon, upper low will be situated over the Mid
Mississippi Valley with the better precip chances north of the
forecast area. Confidence is high that below normal temps will
be in place for both Tue and Wed with highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Main aviation concern will be evening storm chances.

Weak surface high pressure is in place across the area and will
slide east today as low pressure strengthens over eastern
CO/western KS. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will be
in place area wide today. A few storms are expected to develop
early this evening across south central KS and lift northeast
through the evening hours. For now, ran with PROB30 at KICT and
KCNU. Some low clouds and drizzle are also expected to develop
late tonight west of I-135, but confidence wasn`t high enough to
hit too hard at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL