500
FXUS63 KICT 280351
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1051 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated shower or storm possible west of Highway 281 through
  this evening, then again across portions of central and
  northeast Kansas late tonight into early Friday morning.

- Hot and breezy this weekend through the first half of next week.

- Isolated showers and storms may find their way into portions
  of central Kansas throughout next week, though most of the
  area looks to stay dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a mid/upper
ridge building over the Four Corners as the first of a series of
upper impulses sits near the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a
cold front spans from the Red River Valley to the Great Lakes as
high pressure resides over the Central Plains. Gradual
destabilization through the remainder of this afternoon and evening
may allow for an isolated shower/storm or two to develop along and
west of US-281, with better (albeit low) chances residing to the
west of the forecast area. Solid DCAPE values indicate the potential
for stout wind gusts with the strongest activity during this
timeframe. Later tonight into Friday morning, a mid-level baroclinic
zone setting up over the area may provide additional low chances for
isolated showers and storms especially across central and northeast
Kansas. A few isolated strong wind gusts may continue to be possible
with the strongest activity, though severe storms appear unlikely.

Following one more day of seasonably warm highs in the low to middle
90s on Friday, the mid/upper ridge will continue to build east into
the weekend. This will promote the return of afternoon highs near
100 degrees alongside mostly dry conditions. A slight change in the
pattern may look to arrive Sunday and last into the beginning of the
work week as a handful of mid-level perturbations track out of the
Rockies and into the Northern Plains. These will help slowly drive a
frontal boundary southward, with model consensus supporting a
placement Sunday evening from northwest Kansas to the northeast into
southern Minnesota. On-and-off shower and storm chances may appear
along this boundary throughout the week as it stalls, which means
the best opportunities for rain should reside across portions of
central Kansas to the west and north. The placement for these
chances may change as additional model runs become available, though
as it stands with this forecast cycle, most of the area looks to
remain dry.

South of the aforementioned stalled front, high temperatures in the
100s are progged for many locations for a majority of next week as
the mid/upper ridge shifts toward the southeast CONUS. Despite this
heat, breezy south winds and dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s
should keep conditions from feeling quite as hot, especially for the
first half of the week. Additionally, if the front is able to
work its way southward into the forecast area, slightly cooler
temperatures in the trailing airmass should be realized
especially toward the latter half of the week. Stay tuned as
additional details become available.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Winds will remain light overnight out of the east to southeast.
Winds across the area will become southeast by 16Z and increase
above 10 knots. Far central and south-central Kansas sites will
see gusts between 20-25 knots.

A thunderstorm complex in northwest Kansas is currently diving
south across the state. A few remnant showers may manage to hold
together and impact RSL and GBD, but current guidance suggests
the activity will diminish and remain west of the TAF sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...AMD