875
FXUS63 KICT 062339
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue this
  afternoon through much of Sunday. High rainfall rates and
  downburst winds will be the main threats.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures for Tuesday and to a lesser
  extent Wednesday. Some heat indices across southern and
  southeast KS will likely be in the 100 to 108 degree range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Southern steam upper low is about to make its way out of the TX
Panhandle and into southwest OK. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough to
starting to dig across the Pacific Northwest.

Showers and isolated storms have persisted this morning from eastern
OK into southeast KS. This is in an area of 850mb moisture transport
and in an area where PW values are around 175-200% of normal. Even
with lack of sunshine, with such high low level  moisture, we look
to be fairly uncapped across the region which should allow isolated
to sct shower/storms to continue to develop this afternoon just
about anywhere. Not much is expected to change overnight as the
upper low tracks into south central KS. Still feel the more
widespread activity will be over southeast KS where higher PWs
will be located along with better 850- 700mb theta-e advection.
Upper low will quickly lift into central and northeast KS on
Sun and will keep sct activity around area wide at least through
the morning hours. However, by the afternoon hours the majority
of the precip should be mainly affecting eastern KS. High
rainfall rates and associated flooding along with wet microburst
winds still look to be the main threats for tonight through
Sunday.

What is left of this upper impulse will be moving across the Mid
Mississippi Valley on Monday, with shortwave troughing remaining
from the Pacific Northwest, through the Great Basin and into the
Northern Rockies. Weak upper ridging will keep things dry during the
day Mon. Confidence with regards to storm chances remains very low
for Mon night. While the majority of model solutions keep things dry
Mon night, there are still a couple that try to develop storms as an
piece of energy lifts out of the Central Rockies. Will go ahead and
keep some pops in for Mon evening, but confidence in this panning
out is very low.

Upper trough is expected to swing across the Northern Plains on Tue
through Wed with a chance that a weak cold front/sfc trough will try
and sneak into northeast/north central KS by Wed evening and may
bring some storm chances. However, the bigger story for Tue into Wed
will be unseasonably hot temperatures, and with dewpoints
staying very high, we will likely see heat indices in the
100-108 range for southern and southeast KS for Tue and to a
lesser extent Wed. Still looking like a more substantial cold
front will move across the area for the Thu-Thu nigh time frame
which will keep shower and storm chances around.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Scattered showers and storms will be possible through the
overnight hours across the region, and could linger over
southeast Kansas through the morning hours on Sunday. Meanwhile,
low level clouds will fill back in across the region with
MVFR/IFR cigs expected late tonight into the early morning
hours for Sunday. Cigs will gradually rise by late Sunday
morning into the afternoon as low clouds begin to scatter out.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
KSZ095-096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ