109
FXUS63 KICT 182025
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms throughout the weekend; highest rain amounts
  across southeast KS

- Cool through the weekend; warming trend next week

- More shower and storm chances next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

As of 3 PM Friday afternoon, southwesterly midlevel flow has
overspread the Plains ahead of an amplifying trough across the
western US. A secondary midlevel trough across the northern Plains
has shunted a cold through most of the area. The lone county that
remains in the pre-frontal airmass is Labette County but this
frontal passage will occur in the next hour or so. As the previous
forecast discussion mentioned, the overall frontal progression was
(and continues to be) ahead of schedule. This will greatly limit any
potential for surface based convection tonight. On that note, strong
midlevel WAA will overrun the frontal zone across southeast KS in
conjunction with right entrance dynamics from a 150 kt jet across
IA/WI. This will result in widespread shower and storm development,
especially southeast of the KS Turnpike this evening into the
overnight. Steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to 1000-1500
J/kg of elevated instability. Effective shear values of 40-50 kt are
likely as midlevel winds veer quite nicely. A potential limiting
factor on hail size is subtle backing of winds above 6 km, resulting
in a veer-back hodograph. Regardless, any supercell structure will
support hail up to golf ball size. This large hail potential is
likely to be confined to areas southeast of the KS Turnpike.

As the midlevel jet max lifts into the Great Lakes Saturday morning,
the large scale will decrease with the coverage of showers and
storms likely to decrease as well. That being said, continued
midlevel WAA, especially across southeast KS, should allow for at
least scattered showers/storms through the day Saturday. Coverage of
showers/storms will increase area-wide late Saturday night into
Sunday as the main midlevel trough ejects into the Plains. As the
main trough ejects into the Plains, the aforementioned surface
trough will lift back to the north late Sunday morning into the
afternoon, bringing the warm sector back into southeast KS. While
uncertainty remains with instability, strong shear would support a
severe storm threat. Stay tuned.

Now the main question, how much rainfall can we expect. Latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to paint southeast KS
with the greatest potential for multiple inches of rainfall. Latest
NBM probabilistic guidance reveals a greater than 90% for more than
3" of rainfall from tonight-Sunday across far southeast KS.
Meanwhile, areas generally along and southeast of a line from
Winfield to Eureka stand a nearly 90% for receiving 2" or more of
rainfall. Areas along and southeast of KS Turnpike stand a nearly
100% for receiving 1" or more of rainfall. Finally, areas along and
southeast of a line from Great Bend to Salina stand a greater than
75% for receiving more than 0.50" of rainfall.

Transitioning into next week, broad zonal midlevel flow will develop
across the central and southern Plains. Weak perturbations within
the flow will result in multiple rain chances throughout the week
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Ceilings have started to rise to VFR at all sites except CNU and
SLN. MVFR ceilings should return to VFR ceilings after 20z at
SLN and 22z for CNU. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
between 22-01z with confidence increasing after 02z for
thunderstorms prevailing at CNU. Confidence is lower for these
storms to extend west to ICT but have added a PROB30 in as some
models suggest potential for storm development there.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday evening
for KSZ072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF/GC