273
FXUS63 KICT 161126
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry through the weekend, with heat indices exceeding
  100 degrees.

- Rain chances return early in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis continue to show the mid/upper
ridge meandering over Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley area.
This pattern is expected to linger over the weekend leading to a
continuation of hot and dry weather. One difference we see for today
and Sunday is cooling in the H7 layer which will reduce the capping
inversion that was in place on Friday. The RAP/HRRR and NAM also
suggest more vigorous mixing in the pbl allowing dewpoints to mix
out to some degree. HREF probabilities of dewpoints less than 65
would support locations mainly west of I-135 today which appears
reasonable. Heat indices may struggle to meet criteria for Heat
Advisory for those areas, but higher dewpoint are expected to linger
in southeast KS where the highest heat indices are most likely.
Breezy southerly winds will bring some relief from the heat. As we
move into Sunday, the larger-scale pattern remains unchanged as we
remain on the northern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. A rogue
shower or storm may be possible but we see no distinct focus.

We maintained low pops late Sunday into early Monday but it remains
challenging to find much support for more widespread activity. It
will remain hot through the period with highs in the mid and upper
90s.

A shortwave trough moving eastward over the Northern Plains may
serve to flatten the mid/upper ridge as we move into Tue while
a diffuse backdoor front takes aim on the Central Plains. More
seasonable temperatures are anticipated in the wake of this
front with higher probabilities for showers and storms Tue into
Wed.

Thu-Fri...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated late in the
week with seasonably mild highs in the upper 80s/around 90 and dry
weather conditions anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours.

Sustained southerly winds between 10 and 15 knots will persist
through the TAF period. Portions of south-central and central
Kansas will see wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots at times this
afternoon.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ033-048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM