788
FXUS63 KICT 281703
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms this morning may produce brief heavy
  rainfall and gusty winds. Strong or severe storms are not
  expected.

- Another hot day today, especially across southern and
  southeast Kansas with heat indices likely to exceed 105 this
  afternoon and early evening.

- Periodic storm chances are forecast tonight through Friday
  night. A few strong storms producing gusty winds cannot be
  ruled out, but widespread severe weather appears unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

     TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Upper air analysis shows that the much talked about mid/upper ridge
has shifted southwest slightly and is now primarily centered
over New Mexico early this morning. Meanwhile, a subtle
shortwave trough is rounding the northern periphery of this
ridge, while mid-level WAA is overspreading portions of
northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. As a result, there is
enough ascent to overcome the very warm mid-level temperatures,
and scattered showers and storms are ongoing across central and
northern Kansas early this morning. Subtle mid-level WAA should
continue through the morning hours along the mid-level
baroclinic zone, and this should support continued shower and
thunderstorm activity across central, northern, and eastern
Kansas through the morning hours. Like mentioned previously,
mid-level temperatures remain very warm (greater than 28 C at
850 mb), which will keep a lid on the intensity of this activity.
Thus, severe weather is not expected; however, brief heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and occasional lightning strikes are
possible.

Assuming the coverage of showers and storms today remains along and
north of US-50, much of southern and southeast Kansas will continue
to feel the presence of the mid/upper ridge. Afternoon
temperatures around 100 and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s will generally support heat indices around 105 south of
US-50 this afternoon into the early evening.

The forecast from late tonight through Friday will generally be a
rinse and repeat each day. Starting with tonight, another very weak
and subtle shortwave trough will round the north/northeastern
periphery of the upper ridge while mid-level WAA overspreads much of
northern and eastern Kansas at the nose of the nocturnal LLJ. This
will support another round of widely scattered showers and storms
across portions of central, northern, and eastern Kansas late
tonight through much of Wednesday morning. Similar to this morning,
mid-level temperatures will remain very warm which should keep the
intensity of this activity in check. Generally speaking, the main
concerns late tonight through Wednesday morning will be limited to
brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a few lightning strikes.

Thanks to some lingering cloud cover and the aforementioned ridge
continuing to gradually retrograde into the southwestern CONUS,
Wednesday afternoon won`t be quite as hot with afternoon highs in
the mid to upper 90s and heat indices generally remaining below 105.
Then, a similar setup to the previous couple of days is expected
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with scattered showers and
storms possible across northern, central, and eastern Kansas.
Thursday afternoon will be slightly warmer with some locations
across south-central Kansas reaching 100 during the afternoon hours.
Going into Thursday night, mid-range guidance suggests a
stronger shortwave trough will round the northern side of the
ridge and sweep across the Rockies and northern/central plains
Thursday into Friday morning. As a result, more widespread
showers and storms are forecast Thursday night into Friday
morning across the entire forecast area. This activity is still
likely to struggle with very warm mid-level temperatures
remaining in place across the region. Therefore, severe weather
is not expected at this time; however, there`s still time for
things to change, so trends will need to be monitored over the
coming days. Some of this activity could linger throughout the
day on Friday across far eastern Kansas, but in general, storm
chances will be coming to an end by Friday night.

     SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Mid to long range deterministic and ensemble model guidance suggests
the upper level pattern will be momentarily locked in for a few days
this weekend into early next week with troughing across the eastern
CONUS, and a strong ridge parked over the Desert Southwest. This
will put Kansas awkwardly in the middle of the features with
northerly upper flow remaining quite persistent for a few days.
At the surface, a series of weak cold fronts appears
increasingly likely which should support cooler temperatures
this weekend, perhaps 5 to 10 degrees below average for this
time of year. Going into early next week, the pattern becomes
increasingly ill-defined, but it appears that slight increases
in heights aloft should support a gradual warming of
temperatures through the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A few sprinkles or light rain showers will gradually diminish
over eastern Kansas with some lingering high clouds while VFR
prevails. Another round of showers and storms moving off the
Central High Plains may impact parts of central Kansas tonight
but confidence remains fairly low with only a mention at KSLN
after 09Z. Even with some shower and storm activity, VFR is
expected to prevail with light southeast winds becoming light
and easterly tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MWM