822
FXUS63 KICT 192111
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
411 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...Correction to Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through Sunday evening.

- Scattered showers and storms on Monday. A few strong storms
  may be possible with small hail, gusty winds, and occasional
  cloud-to-ground lightning possible.

- Warm and dry conditions resume on Tuesday and continue through
  the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A stout mid/upper low has stalled over the Desert Southwest with a
subtle upper ridge downstream across the southern and eastern CONUS.
Closer to home, a dry airmass continues to dominate the central
plains, and with it brings slightly warmer than average temperatures
for the rest of today and Sunday. Afternoon highs will be in the mid
to upper 70s (perhaps a few places in the low 80s Sunday afternoon),
and overnight lows in mid 40s to mid 50s.

The aforementioned mid/upper low across the southwest CONUS will
gradually become an open trough and trek eastward late Sunday into
Monday morning. With it will come moisture and broad, deep layer
ascent. This should create a broad area of light to moderate
rainfall that sweeps across the region. However, a few embedded
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, some of which could be strong if
elevated instability materializes. While typically a bit bullish
with elevated convection, the NAM does suggest about 500-1000 J/kg
of MUCAPE rooted around 750-800mb, and effective shear around
25-35 knots. It`s not overwhelmingly favorable by any means,
but we can`t rule out a couple rowdy storms that produce gusty
winds and small hail. However, occasional cloud-to-ground
lightning and brief heavy rainfall would be the main concern
with any thunderstorm that develops. Timing-wise, onset of
precipitation across the area is trending a bit later, and may
hold off until late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Rain
and storm chances will gradually progress from west to east
throughout the day on Monday with chances ending across central
and south- central Kansas Monday night, and ending across
southeast Kansas Tuesday morning.

After Tuesday, a quiet, dry, and warm pattern is expected to
dominate the region once again. Subtle impulses in weak zonal to
northwest flow may bring some clouds or sprinkles to the area late
Thursday into early Friday with a brief "cool" down to bring
temperatures closer to normal. Otherwise, these subtle mid/upper
waves should pass by the area without consequence. The main story
from mid to late next week will be warmer than normal temperatures
continuing to persist across the central plains, and drought
conditions worsening due to the lack of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24hrs across the region
with mid level clouds streaming overhead across portions of
central/south central Kansas this afternoon. Winds will remain
out of the south across the region.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...CDJ