718
FXUS63 KICT 230005
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
705 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooldown beginning on Saturday continuing into next week with
  well below normal temperatures.

- Rain chances increasing over next 7 days with the best chances
  on Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Currently, there is a shortwave trough over the Northern Plains that
is moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Its associated surface
low is situated over Manitoba/Ontario with a cold front extending
down into the Upper Mississippi Valley through southern Nebraska
into northern Colorado. This cold front will push south tonight with
the expectation that it will be positioned over southern Kansas by
late Saturday morning. There is about a 20-30% chance for showers
and isolated thunderstorms behind the front with the better chances
in central Kansas. Given weak instability is forecast, strong to
severe storms are not expected. Generally, PWATS are up to 1.8"
which is above the 75th percentile making the main impact heavy
rainfall. Moving into Saturday afternoon and evening, chances for
storms will likely remain around 25%, though thunderstorm chances
may increase as MUCAPE values are around 1500 J/kg with relatively
steep low-level lapse rates. Effective shear is generally around 30
kts, however with weak mid-level lapse rates and DCAPE values
generally under 1000 J/kg, confidence is low on any strong to severe
storms. High temperatures on Saturday will be the start of below
normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s.

On Sunday, strong northwesterly flow aloft will return combined with
surface ridging in our area. Low-level upslope flow will help to
initiate storms in the High Plains that will progress east/southeast
into our area increasing shower and storm chances Sunday night into
Monday. The best chances will be in central to south-central Kansas
where better low-level moisture is forecast. Strong to severe storms
are not expected given the lack of instability. High temperatures on
Sunday will be in the upper 70s to 80s. On Monday, showers will be
likely in southern Kansas where better low-level moisture persists,
again no strong to severe storms are anticipated given the lack of
instability. Given the increase of cloud cover and scattered rain
chances, and the influence of the deep upper-level trough over the
eastern CONUS, high temperatures on Monday will be well below
normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday and beyond... Temperatures will continue to be well below
normal with highs in the low to mid 70s expected through Friday.
This is close to 20 degrees cooler than temperatures are currently.
Overcast skies are forecast to continue throughout next week with
scattered rain chances also persisting.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Chances for hit-or-miss showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
will increase from the north later tonight through Saturday, in
vicinity of a cold front progressing south through Mid-America.
Strong to severe storms are not expected. Breezy north-northeast
winds are expected in wake of the cold front.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...ADK