227
FXUS63 KICT 031949
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
249 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms Friday and especially Friday night
  and may continue into Saturday morning.

- Storm chances will remain in the forecast after Saturday, but
  with low confidence on timing and location.

- Seasonal temperatures look to continue through most of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper impulse approaching
the Four Corners region with additional energy approaching the
Pacific Northwest. There also looks to be a convectively induced
impulse over southwest TX.

Scattered showers and storms have been ongoing today across far
south central KS into central and western OK in the very high PW
airmass that remains uncapped. Just like yesterday, we should
see an overall decrease in coverage as the evening hours
approach. Southwest CONUS upper impulse will approach the
Central/Southern Rockies tonight into Fri morning and across
Nebraska and northern KS during the day Fri. Very high PW
airmass is expected to shift north and east Fri and should allow
iso/sct shower and storm activity to affect more of south
central KS on Fri/Fri afternoon. The CAMs that have done fairy
good so far today are hinting at areas along and west of I-135
having slightly better chances at convection. With lack of
shear, main threat will continue to be brief heavy rain.

Additional storms are expected to develop over northwest
KS/southwest Nebraska, which will be closer to the shortwave and
near a weak cold front that will be moving-in from the
northwest. This activity will track east and southeast Fri night
with central KS having the best chance to see this activity as
it will be closer to the upper forcing. Some of these storms
may linger into Sat morning, especially across central and
eastern KS. If cluster of storms is able to develop a decent
cold pool, may see damaging winds become a threat Fri night as
storms progress east.

We will keep plenty of moisture and instability around for Sat
afternoon into the early evening, but most of forecast area will
be in the subsidence of departing upper wave. Current thinking
is that storms will develop over northeast KS along the weak
front and try to work southwest into the early evening.
Confidence is low on how far southwest they will be able to
develop. Beyond Sat, there are a number of upper perturbations
that are expected to slide across the Northern/Central Plains
that may try and push a weak surface boundary down our way.
However, confidence is low on the timing and placement of
subtle surface features, so will not hit pops too hard at this
time.

For the Tue-Thu time frame, there is good model agreement in
strong upper ridging building across the Desert Southwest into
the Southern Rockies, with north/northwest flow in place across
the Plains. This should keep any extreme heat pushed back to the
southwest with seasonal temps anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the next
24 hours. Breezy south winds with gusts up to 20-25 kts are forecast
throughout the area before dying down later this evening. Stronger
gusts are possible toward the end of the period after sunrise,
especially in central KS.

Showers currently developing over southern KS will have the
potential to impact ICT for the next few hours. Confidence on the
northward extent of these is not high, so decided not to include at
HUT and central KS sites at this time. Additionally, chances for
showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to central and
south central KS toward the end of the period (primarily after 12Z).
However, with disagreement in short-term models on initiation and
location, decided to leave out mentions at all sites with this
issuance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK