207
FXUS63 KICT 221111
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
511 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures for today through the weekend.

- Cold front to move through Sunday evening into Monday morning
  providing much colder temps for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Currently have a deep upper low situated over the Mid-Atlantic
States with weak upper ridging from the Rockies into the Plains.
At the surface, high pressure extends from the eastern Dakotas
into eastern Oklahoma with lee troughing in place.

Pattern will remain unchanged for today with weak upper ridging
remaining over the Plains along with some Lee troughing. Late
tonight, some shortwave energy will come onshore over the
Pacific Northwest and will help break down the ridging over the
Plains on Sat, allowing for increased lee troughing and stronger
southerly winds. Upper energy will continue to slowly track
east across the Rockies Sat night and into the Northern/Central
Plains on Sun. This will allow a cold front to start it`s
journey south, eventually moving through the forecast area Sun
evening through early Mon morning.

Before the front moves through, we are looking at highs a few
degrees above normal for today and by Sun will be around 10
degrees above normal with most locations in the 60s.

As the shortwave trough swings into the Upper/Mid Mississippi
Valley on Mon evening, colder air will continue to spill south
across the Plains, with highs in the 40s for Mon-Wed. There is
some agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in an upper impulse
tracking out of the Great Basin and across the area Wed into Wed
night. At the same time, another piece of energy is expected to
dive southeast out of South Central Canada and into the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Thursday. This setup will bring a
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thanksgiving. In addition,
precip chances will increase for Wed and Wed evening with some
potential for a mix of wintry precip. However, at this time,
confidence is still low on how much if any of the area will see
precip. So hopefully the details become more clear with later
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Light and variable winds are anticipated through the
remainder of the morning before becoming more
southerly/southeasterly around 18Z, though these should remain
below 10 kts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK