532
FXUS63 KICT 042331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances will increase this evening, especially across
  northern and central Kansas. A few strong storms will be
  possible.

- Isolated to scattered storm chances will remain in the
  forecast for the next several days, with low confidence in
  timing and location.

- Temps are expected to remain near seasonal averages through
  the next several days, with highs generally in the upper 80s
  to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Currently have an upper impulse tracking across western/central
Nebraska into northwest KS with some additional upper energy
slowly moving over the Pacific Northwest. Not much of a surface
focus across the Plains, with some weak lee troughing and high
pressure over the Mississippi Valley.

Iso showers and storms will likely continue late this afternoon
in the tropical-like airmass, with PW values over 2 inches.
This is around 150-175% of normal for this time of year. We
should see an overall decrease in activity as the early evening
hour approach, just as we have the last few evenings. Storms are
then expected to become more numerous over northwest
KS/southwest Nebraska, which will be closer to the upper impulse
and approaching front. This activity will track east and
southeast tonight but confidence is low on how far east they
will make it. For now have the highest confidence in central KS
seeing showers and storms tonight, but it falls off considerably
as you head southeast. Current thinking is that even if cluster
of storms do not make it into our south central KS counties,
that at least some sct showers will. These showers may also
linger into Sat morning across much of the area. With limited
wind shear available, it still looks like widespread severe
storms are not likely, with the main threat a wet microburst
that produces 50-60 mph winds.

By Sat afternoon, upper impulse will be tracking over
IA/northeast KS with a weak front over northern KS. Current
thinking is that most of the area will remain dry by Sat
afternoon/evening with a few showers/storms attempting to
develop along the weak front from northeast into central KS. We
may also see some additional development over eastern CO/western
KS in a broad area of upslope flow. There is good model
agreement in shortwave energy tracking across the northern
Plains on Sun, in addition to convection developing in the
upslope regime across western Nebraska and northwest KS. This
activity would then try and slide southeast Sun night, with low
confidence on how far southeast they make it.

Upper ridging is expected to strengthen over the Desert
Southwest into the southern High Plains for Sun into the first
few days of next week. With northwest flow from the Northern
Rockies into the Mid Mississippi Valley, the forecast area will
be under an area of light upper diffluence with mid level temps
remaining unseasonably cool, leading to minimal capping. Lack of
surface focus will make it difficult to pin down a specific time
frame or location that will see higher storm chances next week.
Feel that the most likely scenario would be for afternoon storms
to develop over the High Plains and track east/southeast through
the evening/overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Breezy southeast winds will begin diminish slightly as we move
into the evening hours remaining breezy in the 10-12 knot range
with a gust into the 15-20 knot range possible at times. We
could still see a cluster of storms fester over parts of central
Kansas tonight as a trough of low pressure moves over the area.
The activity is expected to slowly dissipate as we move through
the overnight hours. Confidence in the details remains fairly
low. Other diurnally driven showers should quickly dissipate
before sunset over south central Kansas. MVFR cigs will become
increasingly likely in the moist sector over south central KS
after 11-13Z on Sat before mixing out by mid to late morning.
Southeast winds will prevail again on Sat with most areas seeing
speeds in the 10-15 knot range.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM