477
FXUS63 KICT 101117
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
617 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and storms are likely to continue along and
  south of I-70 through mid afternoon. Localized flooding is
  possible across portions of southeast Kansas.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms continue late Friday
  night through Wednesday. Strong storms are possible Saturday
  morning, and again Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

     TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Early this morning, upper air analysis and water vapor satellite
imagery shows a subtle embedded shortwave trough sweeping across the
central Rockies and out over the central plains with a stream of
deep moisture extending from northern Mexico into the Midwest. A
weak mid-level baroclinic zone with subtle mid-level WAA will
continue to support the development and maintenance of numerous
showers and thunderstorms along and south of I-70 from early this
morning through mid-afternoon. Despite widespread convective
inhibition, there`s clearly more than enough synoptic ascent to
drive copious amounts of showers and storms. Despite effective shear
remaining quite weak (generally under 20 knots), a couple storms
could be strong with wind gusts up to 50 mph, heavy rainfall, and
frequent lightning being the primary concerns. With PWATs in the
neighborhood of 2 inches and the possibility of training
thunderstorms this morning, localized flooding cannot be ruled out
despite very dry antecedent conditions. Generally speaking, storm
chances will gradually wane from north to south this morning
and early afternoon. With ample cloud cover lingering through
much of the daytime hours, it`s become nearly certain afternoon
temperatures will stay below the 90-degree mark. As a note, this
would be the first time Wichita has failed to reach 90 degrees
since July 23, which would snap a 48-day streak with highs of at
least 90 degrees for the city. Clouds eventually clear out by
this evening. With clear skies, light winds, and ample boundary
layer moisture, patchy fog appears increasingly likely along
and east of the Kansas Turnpike late tonight into Friday
morning.

     FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

The forecast for this weekend is still a tad uncertain. After a
quiet, warm, and muggy Friday with highs back in the 90s once again,
global mid-range guidance remains persistent that convection across
Nebraska on Friday will progress southward late Friday night
and Saturday morning across eastern Kansas. Assuming the
deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF are correct, this would
primarily be driven by a robust nocturnal LLJ nosing into
central Kansas along with widespread MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg
with limited convective inhibition. It`s a little too early to
determine weather this complex of storms will be severe, but
given the aforementioned instability and effective shear around
30-40 knots, severe weather appears like a possibility should
this scenario play out. It should be noted that, while in their
extended range, some of the 00Z/06Z CAMs show little to no
activity in Kansas Saturday morning given a possible lack of
convection in Nebraska Friday night. So, there is a chance no
much of anything occurs Saturday morning. Regardless, the
synoptic frontal boundary will be stalled out across northern
Kansas on Saturday, and a few showers and storms are possible
during peak afternoon heating along it. The main concern with
showers and storms along I-70 Saturday afternoon will be the
potential for downbursts producing damaging wind gusts. Shower
and thunderstorm activity could linger through much of Saturday
night into Sunday morning due in part to a subtle shortwave
trough embedded in zonal flow aloft traversing eastward over the
central plains. The frontal boundary is forecast to wash out by
Sunday morning, and another humid day with afternoon highs in
the 90s is expected for Sunday.

     BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...

A more robust trough is forecast to dig into the Rockies and Great
Plains by the beginning of the work week next week which could
potentially lead to another period of active weather. It`s a bit too
early to get into the finer details at time; however, it appears
increasingly probable that a cold front will stall out across Kansas
Monday and Tuesday leading to potentially several rounds of showers
and storms. Heavy amounts of rainfall don`t appear to be on the
table, but should this play out as currently forecast, it would
provide meaningful rainfall to areas that need it. In addition to
the potential for rainfall, much cooler temperatures are also
forecast in the wake of the frontal passage with afternoon highs
potentially in the 70s! Temperatures will recover slightly by mid-
week, but will be near, if not slightly below, average for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Numerous showers and storms continue across a large swath of south-
central and southeast Kansas this morning. Pockets of heavy rainfall
have briefly brought MVFR to LIFR vis conditions to some locations,
and this will continue over the next several hours as showers and
storms gradually sink southward this morning and early afternoon.
Also, IFR to LIFR cigs have overspread portions of central Kansas
this morning along with some patchy vis restrictions. The
expectation is for low clouds and patchy fog/mist to mix out after
15Z or so.

By 18-20Z today, most sites should return to VFR conditions with
generally light and variable surface winds. Overnight tonight into
Friday morning, clear skies, light winds, and ample low-level
moisture will support the potential for patchy fog across mainly
eastern and southeast Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC