843
FXUS63 KICT 200805
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm and mostly dry conditions through Friday.

- A pattern change arrives this weekend with below normal
  temperatures through the middle of next week.

- Multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms this
  weekend through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

A stable post-frontal regime will build over the area as we move
through the day today with some slightly drier air advecting into
the area later in the period. The airmass is progged to remain
weakly capped although a brief shower may try to develop during peak
heating. Confidence remains too low to mention in the forecast and
any shower activity should be brief and transient. Numerical model
guidance hints at a weak bimodal distribution for high temperatures
today leading to some uncertainty. Most areas are expected to top
out near normal for late Aug with highs in the lower 90s.

Thu-Fri...Mild and dry weather is anticipated through the period as
we remain on the eastern periphery of a broad ridge axis. Some
prefrontal warming on Friday could lead to above normal temperatures,
especially across our central KS counties where highs may climb
into the mid/upper 90s. A cold front will arrive late Friday
bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. The
more robust mid/upper flow is progged to remain north over the
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley which should limit
the severe potential across the central Plains region.

Sat-Tue...This period will be dominated by a pattern change with
below normal temperatures anticipated. We could see multiple
opportunities for precipitation in the northwest mid/upper flow
regime as the entrance region to the upper jet provides lift through
much of the period but confidence in the details remains rather low
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For central, south-central, and southeast Kansas...Cannot
completely rule out a stray shower/thunderstorm or two
overnight, as an upper trough drops southeast over Mid-America.
However, suspect most locations will remain dry. Later tonight
into Wednesday morning, short-term guidance supports the
potential for SCT-BKN low VFR or high MVFR clouds possibly
impacting the CNU TAF site. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail the next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...ADK