036
FXUS63 KICT 180507
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1107 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday followed
  by near normal temperatures.

- Shower and storm chances returning Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
Central Rockies with an additional upper-level trough coming onshore
to northern California. At the surface, a low sits over northwestern
Kansas with a warm front extending down through central Kansas into
central Oklahoma.

Tonight, the aforementioned surface low will move across Kansas,
shifting into Missouri by Tuesday morning. Before winds shift to
northwesterly, southerly winds in south-central and southeast Kansas
will advect moisture into the area, allowing dewpoints to rise into
the upper 50s especially in southeast Kansas. This will likely lead
to patchy fog in the overnight hours into Tuesday morning in
southeast Kansas with some areas possible in south-central Kansas.
Northwesterly winds will start to increase to 10-20 mph Tuesday
morning, slowly decreasing into Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures
will be slightly cooler on Tuesday ranging from the lower 60s in
central KS to the lower 70s in southeast KS.

The next upper-level trough is progged to move into the Desert
Southwest on Wednesday night. Chances for rainfall will start to
increase on Wednesday night as WAA/moisture advection increases.
Dewpoints are likely to rise into the lower 50s in south-central and
the upper 50s in southeast KS. Instability will be generally between
500-1000 J/kg in southern KS making some storms possible Wednesday
night; however, stronger instability is expected to stay south of
the area. The best chances for rainfall Wednesday night are in
southeast KS where better moisture is expected with PWATS between 1-
1.25". Widespread precipitation chances will increase Thursday into
Friday across much of the forecast area as synoptic lift
increases from the approaching trough moving out of the Desert
Southwest. With multiple perturbations in the upper-level flow,
a few rounds of precipitation will be possible in this time
period. Outside of precipitation, above normal temperatures are
expected Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s before
near normal temperatures return late this week with highs in the
50s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected throughout the
next 24 hours, with the highest confidence in MVFR conditions
possible along and east of I-135 this morning.

There continues to be modest confidence for patchy fog along and
east of I-135 this morning and may impact KICT, KCNU, and
surrounding sites. Additionally, MVFR ceilings may develop along
and east of the Flint Hills this morning and impact KCNU and
surrounding sites in southeast Kansas.

With a weak cold front sagging across the area this morning,
winds will generally be light and variable. Then, winds will
increase marginally to around 8-15 knots across the area during
the afternoon hours out of the north and northwest.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JC