290
FXUS63 KICT 221038
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
538 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray thunderstorms is possible this morning across north-
  central KS with additional nocturnal thunderstorm chances
  tonight through Friday night

- Heat indices above 100 may return this weekend into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

As of 245 AM Wednesday morning, a highly amplified midlevel
pattern remains across the CONUS with ridging across the western
half and troughing across the east. The midlevel ridge axis
extends from northern CO through southwest KS and into central
OK. This places the forecast area on the northeastern periphery
of the ridge axis. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed across western and northern NE within a weak 700 mb
WAA pattern. This WAA pattern may expand across portions of
north-central KS after sunrise. Unfortunately, increasing 700
mb temperatures (12 to 14 C) across north-central and central KS
may preclude thunderstorm development but a small chance exists
nonetheless. Thanks to the frontal passage Tuesday, more-
seasonable temperatures are in-store this afternoon with highs
topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The potential for nocturnal convection increases late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning as a strong low and midlevel WAA pattern
emerges from western NE through portions of central and eastern
KS. The prospects for any severe weather appear low with
instability generally less than 1000 J/kg and effective shear
less than 30 kt. High PW values around 2" will support heavy
rainfall. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may persist
through much of the day Thursday, especially across northeast KS
where weak WAA will continue. Another complex of thunderstorm
activity is appearing more and more likely late Thursday into
Friday. A shortwave trough is forecast to eject into the central
Plains Thursday evening into Thursday night. Scattered
thunderstorm development is expected along an inverted trough
axis across eastern CO/western KS/western NE. As the evening
progresses, convection is likely to grow upscale into an MCS and
translate eastward within a 35-45 kt LLJ. The greatest storm
chances will remain across portions of central and northeast KS.
Additional storms are possible Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning as the surface trough slides across southeast KS. The
core of the midlevel ridge appears to slide back over the
central Plains by next weekend. This will likely yield warmer
temperatures, heat indices above 100 degrees, and minimal rain
chances from Saturday afternoon into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. A stray
shower is possible near SLN this morning but impacts are not
expected. Easterly winds at 10-15 kt are expected through the
period. Additional showers and storms are possible towards the
end of the period near RSL/SLN.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF