739
FXUS63 KICT 141125
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
625 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions expected this week

- An active weather pattern is likely to emerge this weekend,
  bringing multiple rain and severe storm chances to the area

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

As of 345 AM Wednesday morning, a midlevel ridge axis continues to
amplify across the central and southern Plains. Further west, a
western CONUS trough continues to dig across the Intermountain
West with cyclonic midlevel overspreading the central and
northern high Plains. A deepening surface trough axis extends
from northwest OK through northern MN. Ahead of this surface, a
strong low-level WAA pattern has emerged overnight with 850 mb
temperatures increasing nearly 5 C since Tuesday evening. As
boundary layer mixing ensues later this morning, temperatures
will quickly surge through the 80s and into the 90s across the
entire area.

An initial shortwave trough, currently digging across western NV,
will eject from eastern CO through northern KS and eastern NE late
tonight into Thursday morning. The shortwave trough track will
unfortunately keep the rain chances north of central and eastern KS.
By Thursday morning, a Pacific front/dryline will slide through the
area, shifting winds to the west and northwest.

Beyond Thursday, ensemble probabilities continue to increase for
measurable rainfall Saturday night through Monday night. To begin
with Saturday night into Sunday morning, a strong WAA pattern will
emerge with the nose a 30-40 kt LLJ developing from central KS into
south-central and southeast KS. Elevated instability up to 2000 J
/kg with modest acceleration of the wind profile from 1-6 km. This
will ultimately support a large hail threat late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Broad WAA is likely to continue throughout the day
Sunday with shower and storm chances continuing into the afternoon.
Our eyes will focus to a sharpening dryline across portions of
central/western KS. Model guidance remains mixed with the prospects
of convective initiation Sunday afternoon/evening on the
dryline. Regardless, the conditional environment will be
favorable for severe weather and this needs to be monitored in
the coming days. The greatest potential for widespread severe
weather is expected to arrive Monday afternoon and evening. A
sharp dryline across portions of west-central KS may be the
focal point for convective initiation Monday afternoon/evening.
Again, the background environment is likely to become favorable
for severe weather. This is supported by increasing EPS and GEFS
probabilities for severe convection. Continue to check back for
forecast updates throughout the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The low CIGS and VSBY concerns have remained west of the
terminals and should remain west for the remainder of the
morning. Winds will gradually shift to the south and southeast
by midday with speeds 10-15 kt. Speeds will strengthen this
afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt, especially at GBD/RSL. A cold
front will shift winds to the northwest overnight. A brief
period of wind gusts greater than 25 kt are possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Record High Temperature Information for May 14th:

Site:      Forecast:      Record:

Wichita      93           94 (2018)

Salina       93           101 (1941)

Chanute      91           91 (2022)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
CLIMATE...BRF/JWK