353
FXUS63 KICT 031944
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
244 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off and on rain chances continue for mainly Friday through
  Saturday night, with some light snow mixing-in late Saturday
  night.

- Below normal temps expected through the weekend with
  subfreezing readings likely Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Currently have a slow moving upper trough located over the Desert
Southwest/Four Corners region with a northern stream trough
over Saskatchewan and Manitoba. At the surface, high pressure is
over the Northern/Central Plains with a stationary front from
the Arklatex region into central TX.

Two areas of precip developed this morning, one over eastern
OK/southeast KS associated with strong 850-700mb moisture transport,
and another over western KS related to increasing upper
diffluence/dynamic lift.

Not expecting much in the way of widespread rain this evening
as the better low level theta-e advection shifts east and the
better upper dynamics stay west of the forecast area. Out west,
another piece of energy will dig across Baja into Sonora Mex and
will cause the upper trough to become less positively tilted,
which will increase upper divergence across the area along with
mid level theta-e advection. So current thinking is that our
best rain coverage on Friday will be during the morning hours,
before shifting east for the afternoon.

By 00z Sat, northern stream shortwave will be diving southeast
across the Northern Plains while southern stream upper trough
lingers across the Desert Southwest. At the same time, cold front
will move-in from the northwest Sat night. Feel that most of the
forecast area will be between two areas of widespread precip. The
heavy rain will be east of the forecast area associated with very
strong low level moisture transport along and north of the
surface front. The other will be over OK/TX Panhandle into
Western OK, as the upper low makes its way across the Southern
Plains. Outside of some light rain/drizzle as the colder air
saturates the low levels Sat, feel southeast KS will have the
best chance at more meaningful rain, due to being closer to
deeper moisture. Upper low will track across OK on Sat night
with mainly southern and especially southeast KS having the
higher POPs. Still looking like some snow will mix-in with the
precip late Saturday night with some light accumulation not out
of the question across the Flint Hills into southeast KS.

As far as temps go through the weekend, we are still looking at
below normal readings with most areas not getting out of the 40s
on Sat. Confidence also remains high in all of central and
south central KS getting below freezing for Sat night into Sun
morning.

Strong northwest flow aloft will be in place across the Plains to
start the work week and will remain in place for several days as
upper ridging strengthens over the Great Basin into the Rockies.
This will allow a return to seasonal temps with some warmer
readings by the end of the week. GFS does track some upper
energy out of the Northern Rockies and across the Central Plains
for Tue night into Wed morning. However, it looks like the
better precip chances will stay northeast of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

light showers continue to approach the area with VFR to marginal
VFR conditions prevailing. Light rain will continue to impact
KCNU throughout the afternoon but not expecting conditions to
deteriorate until further into the evening. Showers will
approach KRSL and KGBD in the coming hours with MVFR conditions
expected to follow at KGBD but a while later for KRSL. Trended
towards IFR conditions for the overnight and early morning
hours as increased moisture and better rain chances move in from
the south.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...SGS