122
FXUS63 KICT 152021
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
221 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday.

- Mostly dry conditions will prevail into early next week with
  rain chances increasing mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Currently, there is weak upper-level ridging influencing the Central
and Southern Plains with mostly zonal flow aloft in our area.
Additionally, there is an upper-level low off the southwestern
CONUS. At the surface, troughing extends from the Great Lakes
through the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains.

Tonight, expansive surface high pressure will settle into the
Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley stretching down into
eastern Kansas. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 40s. As
we move into Sunday afternoon, surface high pressure will move into
the Middle Mississippi Valley. With weak mid-level ridging overhead,
and southerly flow returning at the low-levels, above normal
temperatures will continue. Cooler 850 mb temperatures are forecast
for Sunday leading to slightly cooler high temperatures than today
with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 on Sunday afternoon.

On Monday morning, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
Central Rockies. With low-level WAA/moisture advection increasing, a
few showers are possible in eastern Kansas on Monday morning, though
better chances remain north and east of our area. High temperatures
on Monday afternoon will likely be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
However, it is possible that low clouds could settle in, resulting in
cooler temperatures (upper 50s) per the NAM.

Weak mid/upper-level ridging will influence our area Tuesday and
Wednesday with above normal temperatures persisting. Afternoon highs
will continue to be in the 60s to 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. The
next upper-level trough is progged to move into the Desert Southwest
mid to late week, likely bringing our next round of precipitation.
The best chances for widespread rainfall look to be Thursday as of
now, though this forecast will need to be refined as we move
closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Breezy northerly winds are expected this afternoon across the
forecast area. Winds will become light and variable overnight,
eventually turning out of the southeast. Look for southeasterly
winds to increase slightly between 12-15Z under mostly clear
conditions.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD