560
FXUS63 KICT 020346
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1046 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near seasonal temps and dry conditions will continue for both
  Wednesday and Thursday.

- Shower/storm chances increase for Friday and especially
  Friday night, especially across northern/central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Currently have upper high pressure extending across the Southern
and Central Rockies with an upper low approaching Southern CA.
There also appears to be a weak mid/upper perturbation nearly
stationary over west TX. At the surface, weak high pressure
encompasses much of KS and Nebraska with a stationary front down
across central/west TX.

For tonight into Wed, the better shower/storm chances are
expected to remain over west TX/NM where a very high PW airmass
will be located along with a stationary front. Weak upper
impulse will approach the area from the southwest on Wed into
Wed night, but should stay far enough south to limit precip
chances. By Thu afternoon/evening, the upper low that is
currently approaching Southern CA, will be approaching the Four
Corners region and across the Central Rockies early Fri morning.

Shortwave is then expected to slide across Nebraska/northern KS
Fri into Fri evening. As this occurs, surface high will shift
east, and setup a decent pressure gradient across the forecast
area for Fri into Fri evening. Sustained south winds around 20
mph will be likely, with gusts 30-35 mph.. This could be an
issue for some firework displays on Fri/Fri evening. Storm
chances will increase Fri afternoon and especially Fri evening
as the upper impulse tracks across Nebraska/northern KS. Current
thinking is that storms will develop along the front Fri
afternoon over southern Nebraska/northern KS and track east and
southeast Fri night as low level jet ramps-up. Not out of the
question that we may see some remnant outflow from Fri night
storms that may help spark off a few storms on Sat into Sat
evening, but confidence in how this plays out is very low at
this time.

Beyond Sat there is some model agreement in a series of upper
impulses tracking from the Northern Intermountain and across the
Northern Plains starting Sat night and continuing through Mon.
At the same time, upper riding will slowly build from the
Desert Southwest into the Southern High Plains. This scenario
could potentially favor MCS activity clipping northern/eastern
KS, where there will be less ridging influence.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected across central and eastern Kansas
the next 24 hours. A strengthening pressure gradient will
support breezy south winds with westward extent by Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK