990
FXUS63 KICT 181921
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
221 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances this afternoon through Tuesday
  night, and again this weekend into early next week.

- Triple digit heat indices through Tuesday, not quite as hot
  mid to late this week, turning much cooler this weekend and
  especially early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING....A subtle MCV and associated gravity wave
amidst rich precipitable waters will support a few isolated to
widely scattered showers/storms the rest of today into this evening,
mainly over eastern to southeast KS. Weak shear will preclude most
severe chances, although isolated strong wind gusts can`t be ruled
out given hefty downdraft CAPE.

LATER TONIGHT--TUESDAY NIGHT...An upper trough and associated weak
cold front approaching from the north will be the focus for a few
rounds of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms later tonight
into Tuesday morning, and again by mid-late afternoon Tuesday,
persisting through the evening and night. Strong instability and
weak shear will preclude widespread severe storms, although isolated
strong to severe wind gusts are possible Tuesday afternoon-evening
given hefty downdraft CAPE values. Activity may try to linger into
Wednesday over southern to southeast KS.

FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus
drives a strong and deep cold frontal zone south and stalls it
across the region this weekend into early next week, as a deep
longwave trough carves out across eastern North America. This will
serve as a focus for increasing thunderstorm chances across the
region. While this is still a ways out, the potential for strong to
severe storms could increase given the seasonably strong northwest
flow aloft and strong/deep baroclinic zone draped across the region.
Severe chances will depend on how much instability can be realized.
Stay tuned for later forecasts.

TEMPERATURES:

Another day of afternoon through early evening heat indices of 100-
107 degrees is expected Tuesday. Expect the heat and humidity to
decrease just a bit Wednesday through Friday, as high pressure
attempts to build in from the north in wake of a weak cold front.

For this weekend into especially early next week, deterministic and
ensemble consensus supports much cooler temperatures, as eastern
North American longwave troughing drives a strong cold front south
into the region, with bonifide Canadian high pressure driving south
into Mid-America. Daytime highs in the 80s (and possibly even 70s)
are likely this weekend, with solid 70s possible by early next week.
Overnight lows in the 60s are likely, with some upper 50s possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Southerly winds around 10 knots this afternoon will become light
and variable overnight. A few passing thunderstorms on Tuesday
morning could impact CNU, but overall low confidence on timing
and impacts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD