682
FXUS63 KICT 151854
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
154 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms in southeast KS this afternoon and
  again on Thursday with seasonably warm temperatures through Friday.

- A warming trend beginning this weekend and lasting into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The mid upper ridge remains situated from the Upper Mississippi
Valley area extending south and east toward the Mid Atlantic
area while a couple of shortwave troughs were evident over the
Southern CONUS, one over west Texas and another more subtle wave
drifting westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley toward
the Southern/Central Plains. As the shortwave trough over the
Lower Mississippi Valley area approaches today, we expect to see
an increase in shower and more isolated storm activity as a
high PWAT airmass builds into the Flint Hills and southeast
Kansas. Some of this activity may linger into the
evening/overnight hours before diminishing as this subtle wave
remains in the area.

Seasonable temperatures are expected to return to the area on
Thursday with some scattered afternoon showers and storms, mainly
over southeast KS as the subtle wave brushes the Central Plains as
it meanders into the Middle Mississippi Valley area and we remain on
the edge of the higher PWAT airmass.

Dry weather is expected to return on Friday while lingering into
early next week as the mid/upper ridge amplifies over the central
CONUS resulting in rising heights/increasing thickness and rising
temperatures. Highs may exceed 100 Sun-Tue in many areas,
especially over southern and southeast KS. With some lingering
low level moisture, we may see some excessive heat headlines
with afternoon heat indices rising into the 100-105+ range over
parts of southeast Kansas.

An approaching cold front may bring an increase in showers and
storms toward the middle of the week, but any cooldown may have to
wait until later in the week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered showers and storms will impact the Flint Hills and
southeast Kansas this afternoon when they are expected to be
most numerous although some lingering activity may be possible
this evening and tonight. Light easterly winds will remain light
while becoming more southerly across the area on Thursday.
Scattered afternoon showers and storms may return, especially
over eastern Kansas on Thursday afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM