094
FXUS63 KICT 120727
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
227 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures for today, then again for Thu
  through the weekend, with many locations seeing highs in the
  upper 80s and 90s.

- Chance for a few storms early this evening across the Flint
  Hills into southeast KS.

- Additional chances for storms on Thurday and this weekend.
  Widspread severe weather is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

TODAY:

A ridge is building over the western CONUS with a trough lifting
over the east. A shortwave is dipping into the Canadian Prairies
with a corresponding surface low developing over the Northern High
Plains. As we move through the day, the ridge axis will continue to
shift further east and will extend across the Rockies by midday,
continuing our warming trend. Highs this afternoon will reach well
above normal with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s areawide.

As the aforementioned shortwave digs into the Upper Midwest today,
it will force a weak cold front across the forecast area this
afternoon/early evening. Moisture will increase ahead of the
boundary with PWATs reaching between 1-1.25". Modest instability is
expected with MUCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk shear
topping out between 40-45 kts. A window of convective development is
expected late this afternoon through the evening hours, primarily in
eastern Kansas. A few strong to severe storms are possible with the
primary threats being strong wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail.


TEMPERATURES: WED-MON

The frontal boundary will exit the area to the south by Wednesday
morning and temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will be slightly
cooler behind the "cold" front, though still 5-10 degrees above
normal, with highs reaching into the lower to middle 80s. Ridging
will primarily dominate the pattern through the end of the week and
into the weekend leading to well above normal temperatures in the
upper 80s and 90s for Thu-Sun. A deep trough looks to move over the
Rockies on Sunday with an associated surface low and cold front
sweeping over the Plains Sunday night/Monday. Temperatures for the
end of the forecast period look to dip closer to normal with highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s expected.

PRECIPITATION: WED-MON

A weak, mid/upper level trough will traverse the northern tier of
the country on Thursday dragging a weak boundary across the Central
Plains on Thursday night. As this feature interacts with around 2000
J/kg CAPE, it could lead to some isolated storm chances on Thursday
night for central into eastern Kansas. With shear values in the 30-
40 kt range and steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail and isolated
strong wind gusts could be possible with the strongest storms. As we
move into Saturday/Saturday night, significant low-level moisture
will be in place over the region along with ample instability. As a
ripple in the mid-level pattern passes overhead, scattered showers
and storms could develop during the afternoon and increase in
coverage with a strengthening LLJ. Without any obvious low-level
forcing, overall confidence in storm development is low. Then,
additional storm development is possible again late Sunday with the
approach of the next significant frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for most locations the next 24
hours. A stout southwesterly low-level jet will support low-
level wind shear around 1500 ft AGL overnight into early
Tuesday.

Otherwise, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible late
Tuesday afternoon and evening in vicinity of a cold front
approaching from the north. Thinking activity may struggle to
develop given capping issues and weak upper level forcing.
However, if storms are able to form, chances will be best over
eastern Kansas, mainly east of ICT, although a storm cannot be
ruled out in vicinity of ICT. Large hail and damaging winds may
accompany the strongest activity.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Very high grassland fire danger is expected Thu afternoon and
again on Sunday afternoon.

Hot temperatures are expected on Thu, with highs in the 90s for
areas along and west of I-135. This will produce afternoon RH
values in the 25-30% range with south winds gusting to 35-40
mph. This combo will elevate the fire danger to very high, for
areas along and west of I-135. The same setup is also
anticipated for Sun afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...BRF