725
FXUS63 KICT 302337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat expected again this afternoon across mainly
  southern/southeast KS.

- Shower/storm chances will increase this afternoon through
  Thursday morning and then again for late Saturday night
  through Sunday.

- Much cooler air arrives this evening and remains through at
  least Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Currently, a cold frontal boundary is draped across central Kansas.
We have two starkly different environments across the state. Behind
the front for central and western Kansas, northerly winds, drier
air, and temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s are being seen.
Across south-central and southeastern Kansas ahead of the front,
south-easterly winds, humid conditions, and temperatures in the 90s
are the story of the afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
for southern Kansas counties as heat indices top out around 105
degrees this afternoon.

As this boundary pushes southeast through the afternoon and evening
hours, a few storms will develop along it. With MLCAPE values around
2000 J/kg and marginal shear, a few storms could produce isolated
gusty winds and possibly large hail during the afternoon and early
evening hours. High PWATs ahead of the front also means that locally
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will once again be a
concern. Current model guidance suggests this activity will initiate
sometime between 20-22Z as a broken line of storms. There is some
discrepancy with location of initiation as that is dependent on the
location of the frontal boundary. Current thinking is that storms
will form generally along a line from Pratt to McPherson and up
towards Topeka and then drift southeast over the course of the
evening and overnight hours. Storms will lose their severe
characteristics as we move into the later evening time frame, but
storms will continue to fester overnight posing primarily a heavy
rain threat.

For Thursday, guidance continues to suggest the better rain chances
will be confined to southern Kansas as the front pushes south
through Oklahoma. Rain chances will diminish throughout the day
though, and by the mid-afternoon hours we`re looking at less that 20
POPs areawide. The main talking point for Thursday through the
weekend will be the below normal temperatures that will filter into
the area behind the front. For Thursday and Friday, temperatures
will remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

This weekend into early next week, the ridge will strengthen across
the Desert Southwest leading to slowly increasing heights and
northwest flow across the state. Our highs for the weekend will
reach into the the 80s for most across the forecast area. Models
suggest a midlevel impulse sweeping across the area on Saturday
night and Sunday which will increase rain and storm chances
slightly. Temperatures will slowly increase next week with 90s
starting to creep back into central and southern Kansas on Tuesday.
And by the middle of next week, temperatures look to be right around
normal for this time of year with lower to mid 90s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Widely scattered storms have developed along a southward moving
frontal boundary. Storm motions have been chaotic with boundary
interactions across south central Kansas. Gusty winds associated
with storms could linger into the evening hours before
diminishing late. Some post-frontal MVFR stratus is anticipated
late tonight and into the morning hours on Thu. MVFR cigs are
expected to mix out as we move through the day on Thursday while
northeast winds at 10-15 knots prevail.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ069>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...MWM