210
FXUS63 KICT 162321
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of above normal temperatures expected for Friday.

- Shower/storm chances will increase for Friday night into early
  Saturday mainly for locations south and east of Hwy 50. A few
  strong to marginally severe storms are possible Friday night.

- Cooler, near normal temperatures expected on Sunday and again
  for Tue-Thu next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Currently, the upper-level ridge is being shunted to our east as the
trough deepens over the western U.S. Taking a peak at midlevel water
vapor imagery, you can see moisture streaming north ahead of this
next system with the southerly flow. At the surface, high pressure
is centered over the Great Lakes states with an expansive low
pressure extending from the Northern Plains into the Central
Rockies. The corresponding cold frontal boundary is draped from the
Northern Plains into the Southern Rockies with showers and storms
developing along it in northwest Kansas. The tightening pressure
gradient over the Central Plains is leading to breezy conditions
today with southerly winds gusting in excess of 30 mph in central
Kansas.

As we move forward through tonight, the frontal boundary will move
slowly through western Kansas. Ahead of this front, a few spotty
showers will be possible across the forecast area after 06Z and into
the early morning hours as the line of decaying thunderstorms drifts
into the area. Minimal impacts are expected from this activity.
Another warm day is expected on Friday ahead of the cold front with
highs reaching into the 80s for south-central and southeastern
Kansas. The front will begin passing through central Kansas by
midday, so highs in the middle to upper 70s are expected for those
locations. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Friday
evening through Friday night with convection initiating along
Hwy 50 and slowly moving eastward ahead of the front Friday
night. Model soundings indicate a more linear storm mode is
expected, though a broken line of storms looks likely. CAPE
values are only expected to reach between 1000-1500 J/kg but low
level lapse rates around 8 C/km will make the most of the
marginal instability. Mid level lapse rates, however, will
remain mediocre which will limit updraft extent. Overall,
widespread strong to severe weather is not expected.

A few showers and run of the mill thunderstorms will linger across
southeast Kansas through 18Z on Saturday, with all convection
clearing the region with the cold frontal passage Saturday
afternoon. Breezy post-frontal northwesterly winds are expected on
Saturday afternoon with gusts reaching into the 30-40 mph range.
Much drier air is expected for the weekend with dewpoints falling
into the 30s by Sunday. Cooler temperatures will filter in this
weekend as upper level ridging builds into the region with a
corresponding surface high. Look for highs in the 70s for Saturday
and the 60s for Sunday.

By Monday, another upper level trough will traverse the Northern
Plains with a corresponding cold front sweeping across the Central
Plains on Monday night. Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm
into the 70s and 80s for Monday afternoon. Despite potent forcing
from the frontal boundary, limited rain chances are expected given
the minimal moisture left in the wake of the previous system. Behind
the front for Tue-Thu, near normal temperatures and mild conditions
are expected. Look for highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s for
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Breezy southeast winds early this evening will gradually diminish
as we move through tonight while VFR prevails across the area.
LLWS is still forecast to impact central KS after 06Z as a 50kt
LLJ develops over central KS. LLWS will diminish around daybreak
on Fri. A few showers or sprinkles could build into central KS
late tonight but VFR is expeced to prevail. Better chances for
more impactful shower and storm activity is expected tomorrow
evening, especially over parts of south central KS and southeast
KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...MWM