242
FXUS63 KICT 261735
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances increase for this afternoon and evening, with
  strong storms and heavy rain possible.

- Hit-or-miss storm chances for Friday and Saturday, especially
  across eastern KS.

- Storm chances ramp back up for Sunday afternoon and especially
  Sunday night as a front moves into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Currently have a weak upper impulse that is nearly stationary
over Southern CA with some additional energy sliding across
western/central Nebraska. At the surface, cold front, aided by
outflow, stretches from eastern Nebraska into northwest KS.

Scattered storms remain from north central KS into
central/eastern Nebraska where 850mb moisture transport is
maximized ahead of the upper wave. We should see some iso-sct
showers/storms continue this morning generally west of I-135
were 850-700mb moisture transport lingers. Storms are expected
to become more numerous this afternoon along and south of the
front. By 21z, front is expected to extend from southeast
Nebraska into west-central KS. We may see an uptick in
convection around or just after sunset as 850mb moisture
advection ramps back up, especially across south central KS.
Still looking for ML CAPE values to be in the 2,000-3,000J/KG
range with minimal capping. Effective shear is still expected
to be fairly weak with around 15-20kt forecast. So the main
severe threat will be downburst winds and high rainfall rates.

By Fri morning, weak upper energy will be moving into the Mid
Mississippi Valley but will leave a very moist and unstable
airmass behind. Some isolated storms will be possible Fri
afternoon and evening, mainly across southeast KS where cooler
mid level temps will be located. The same setup is forecast for
Sat, with eastern KS having the better chances to see isolated
afternoon/evening storms. There is good model agreement in
a shortwave tracking across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba
for Sat night into Sun and will push a cold front south across
the Central Plains and into the forecast area for Sun afternoon
and especially Sun night. At the same time, some monsoonal
energy is also expected to lift out of NM/TX Panhandle and will
slide across KS. Some of this activity will likely linger into
Mon morning, especially across southeast KS.

Beyond Mon, confidence in storm chances decreases. Upper ridging
will strengthen over the Central and Southern Rockies with
northwest flow from the Northern Rockies through the Great
Lakes. Will maintain some small storm chances for Tue-Wed as mid
level temps remain unseasonably cool and we maintain plenty of
low level moisture/instability.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Spotty showers and storms possible this afternoon.

Widespread scattered to broken VFR cigs continue to overspread
most locations along and west of the Flint Hills early this
afternoon. A plume of very rich moisture from the Eastern
Pacific, along with an approaching weak cold front sagging into
central and south-central Kansas, will set the stage for widely
scattered showers and storms across much of the area this
afternoon into tonight. The main concerns will be gusty winds
and very heavy rainfall. Sites impacted by stronger storms could
see wind gusts up to 40 knots, and over 1 in/hr rainfall rates
leading to a degradation in visibilities.

The axis of moisture driving these showers and storms will
gradually move eastward into tonight, and some activity may last
until Friday morning across southeast Kansas. Winds are
generally out of the south and southwest with gusts this
afternoon between 20 and 25 knots.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC