817
FXUS63 KICT 111135
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms through early this morning.
  Primary concerns are marginally severe hail, 50-70 mph winds,
  and heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns. Highest
  chances mainly along/south of Highway 56.

- Lingering hit-or-miss showers/storms this afternoon through Tuesday,
  but severe chances and heavy rainfall potential is lower.

- Cool down today through Tuesday, with a warming trend by mid-
  late week. Triple digit heat indices Thursday through next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will impact the region overnight, in the vicinity of a
stalled deep frontal zone, and ahead of a deep mid-upper trough
approaching from the west. Thinking storms should be most widespread
generally along/south of Highway 56, with activity gradually exiting
the forecast area from west to east after sunrise.

While widespread severe weather is not expected given a modest
combination of instability and deep layer shear, a handful of storms
will be capable of marginally severe hail and 50-70 mph winds.
Additionally, high precipitable waters, mid-level flow mostly
parallel to the frontal zone, and numerous training cells will
support areas of intense rainfall amounts and flash flooding
concerns. Localized rainfall amounts exceeding 4-6 inches are
likely. At first glance, will continue the flood watch through 7am
this morning.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...Lingering hit-or-miss
showers/storms are expected mainly east of the KS Turnpike, ahead of
the slow moving upper trough. However, a marginal combination of
instability and deep layer shear along with decreasing frontal
forcing should prevent widespread heavy rainfall or severe storms.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...Mostly dry weather is expected through at
least Saturday, as upper ridging build slowly eastward over the
region. As we head into next Sunday and Monday, thunderstorm chances
may enter back into the forecast, as deterministic consensus
progresses another cold front south into Mid-America.

TEMPERATURES:

Increased cloud cover and low-level thickness values support a cool
down into the 80s today and Tuesday. Thereafter, building upper
ridging, and increasing southerly flow and atmospheric thickness
will result in a warming trend back into the 90s by mid-late week,
and persisting through the weekend. Additionally, dewpoints in the
60s to low 70s will support a return to triple digit heat indices
Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will gradually end
from west to east this morning. CNU TAF has the best chance at
seeing heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Otherwise, patchy IFR and
MVFR ceilings will impact the region through about mid-morning,
becoming VFR by midday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ049>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK