037
FXUS63 KICT 201147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/thunderstorms increasing in coverage today and
  persisting through the afternoon area wide. Pockets of heavy
  rainfall and localized minor flooding possible.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible generally
  along/east of the Flint Hills late this morning through mid-
  afternoon.

- Chilly today, with more seasonable temperatures Monday through
  next weekend.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances late Tuesday through next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A surface low is currently strengthening across far southwest
Oklahoma early this morning as a strong 500 mb low shifts into the
Texas Panhandle. Upper-level divergence will remain across
mainly southeast Kansas this morning which is where the
persistent moderate to at times heavy rainfall has been
occurring. Between 11 pm and 2 am, portions of southeast Kansas
have reported up to 1.5" of rainfall. An additional quarter to
half inch of rainfall per hour is possible for the next several
hours early this morning. Across central and western Oklahoma,
as upper-level lift increases from the approaching low, showers
and thunderstorms are beginning to blossom and will spread to
the northeast later this morning. This is the activity that
will eventually overspread most of the forecast area this
morning and through the afternoon hours as the surface low lifts
to the northeast. Latest HREF guidance is still in favor of an
additional half inch to inch of rain across most of central and
south central Kansas by this evening.

The other concern for today will be a fairly limited potential for
severe weather across far southeast Kansas which will be highly
dependent on how quickly the initial band of precipitation
clears out and whether the low clouds can dissipate. As a warm
front lifts north across southeast Kansas this morning, surface
winds should become southerly which will help to dissipate the
low clouds and advect better low-level moisture into the far
southeast corner of the state. With the upper-level low close to
this region, lapse rates will be steep aloft which could help
MUCAPE values increase to around 1000 J/kg by late this morning
and early afternoon. Assuming that this instability actually
develops, as the surface low moves across this region a few
low-topped supercells may be possible but these storms will
quickly shift off to the northeast. Based on the latest
guidance, the best timing to see a few strong to severe storms
would be between 11 am and 4 pm from Chautauqua to Allen
counties and points south and east.

The surface low will lift northeast and out of our area by the early
evening hours which will bring an end to our precipitation chances
from west to east through the afternoon and early evening.
Temperatures may widely vary across the forecast area today
from the low 50s across central Kansas where low clouds and
precipitation are expected for much of the day to near 70
degrees across southeast Kansas where a bit more sunshine is
possible. Winds will also be breezy through the day initially
out of the northeast this morning backing to the northwest this
afternoon as the surface low shifts across the forecast area.

We will clear out on Monday as zonal flow sets up across the Central
Plains. With sunny skies, temperatures will be much warmer on Monday
with high temperatures climbing into the upper 70s across central
Kansas to the low 70s across southeast Kansas. However, this drier
weather won`t last long, as the upper-level pattern quickly becomes
more southwesterly on Tuesday and remains that way through the end
of the extended forecast. This will allow several impulses to cross
the Plains through the week leading to additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms potentially each day with high
temperatures remaining mostly in the 70s. Mesoscale details from
the previous days convection will play a big part in the
potential for any severe weather chances during the week, hence
it remains too early to start defining which days (if any) will
have the potential for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand this morning
across the eastern half of Kansas. MVFR to IFR ceilings have
also developed at all TAF sites this morning and are expected to
remain in these categories through the early afternoon with
brief drops into LIFR possible at times as heavier showers move
over the airports. Winds will be backing through the day as
surface low pressure moves through south central and then far
eastern Kansas by late this afternoon, these winds will be
breezy at times but diminish this evening. As the low shifts to
the east it will take the showers and thunderstorms along with
the lower ceilings with it, hence skies will clear from west to
east through the afternoon and early evening hours. VFR
conditions will return to all sites for tonight with light and
variable winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...WI