140
FXUS63 KICT 111113
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
613 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic chances for showers and storms remains in the
  forecast late tonight through Sunday morning. A few strong or
  marginally severe storms are possible with large hail and
  damaging wind gusts possible.

- The heat makes a brief return Sunday and Monday with highs in
  the mid to upper 90s, and heat indices over 100 during the
  afternoon hours.

- Storm chances return for next week. While details are subject
  to change, a few rounds of showers and storms are possible
  Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

     TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Early this morning, upper air analysis shows a weak shortwave trough
over the Ozarks, and the region`s next system over the PNW. At
the surface, a weak surface ridge is stretched out across
eastern Kansas. Light winds, clear skies, and a very moist
boundary layer from yesterday`s rainfall are contributing to
patchy fog across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With
diurnal heating after sunrise, much of this fog should mix out
by mid-morning, and mostly clear skies will dominate the region
this afternoon and evening with afternoon highs returning into
the 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Dakotas and Nebraska
this evening into tonight ahead of the next deep layer trough
traversing eastward over the Rockies. A cluster of showers and
storms is likely to be over southern Nebraska late tonight, and
this the point where uncertainty in the forecast remains quite
high. Over the past 2-3 days, mid-range global models were on
board with this cluster of storms diving southward and feeding
off of a stout nocturnal LLJ along with ample elevated
instability across Kansas. However, the latest CAMs are
significantly more bearish; showing a decaying cluster of
showers barely making it into portions of central Kansas
by Saturday morning. This is likely due to the short-range
models having a better handle on the strength and positioning of
the nocturnal LLJ late tonight into Saturday morning, generally
keeping it much weaker and further west across the High Plains.
Because of this trend, POPs have been lowered significantly for
overnight tonight into Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, a surface frontal boundary will sag into northern/central
Kansas by Saturday afternoon with ample instability along and
south of the front (over 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE). Convergence along
the front, along with a very subtle shortwave trough
approaching the region, will support development of widely
scattered showers and storms across the northern half of Kansas
Saturday afternoon and evening. Effective shear will be in the
neighborhood of 35-40 knots supporting the potential for
organized convection. In addition, model soundings show an
inverted-v profile across much of the forecast area Saturday
afternoon and early evening. Given these conditions, any storm
that develops could be strong to marginally severe with large
hail and damaging wind gusts possible. There is an outside
chance of a tornado given low-level shear along the frontal
boundary, but LCLs will be comically high (some model soundings
show potential cloud bases near 3km), so chances of a tornado or
two remain very low.

Lastly, another round of isolated to scattered storms are possible
Saturday night into Sunday morning along the mid-level baroclinic
zone. At the moment, the mid-level baroclinic zone (and accompanying
WAA) is forecast to be across central Kansas. Any storms that
develop are likely to be elevated. Environmental shear and
instability support the potential for organized convection capable
of large hail and maybe some localized damaging wind gusts.
Generally speaking, storm chances will come to an end Sunday morning
as mid-level WAA wanes across the forecast area. The aforementioned
frontal boundary is expected to wash out by Sunday, and hot weather
is forecast to briefly make a return Sunday afternoon with highs in
the mid 90s to potentially low 100s.

     MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

The forecast for next week generally remains on track as of now. Mid-
range guidance continues to show a more robust trough digging into
the Rockies and Great Plains by the beginning of the work week next
week which could potentially lead to another period of active
weather. It`s a bit too early to get into the finer details at time;
however, it appears increasingly probable that a cold front will
stall out across Kansas Monday night after another potentially
hot day on Monday. This could lead to potentially several
rounds of showers and storms through much of next week. Heavy
amounts of rainfall don`t appear to be on the table at this
time. That being said, meaningful rainfall across drought
stricken areas remains possible. In addition to the potential
for rainfall, cooler temperatures are still forecast, though
temperatures have trended slightly warmer than in previous
forecasts. Still, a prolonged stretch of highs in the 80s will
provide a much needed break from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

As of 12Z this morning, patchy fog was noted across much of the
forecast area, with visibility ranging from 4 miles to around
one-quarter of a mile in some spots. Given then patchy coverage
of the fog this morning, the first 3 hours of the TAFs are very
challenging. It`s possible some sites could flip between VFR and
LIFR vis conditions through 15Z, especially KHUT, KICT, and
KCNU.

After 15Z this morning, VFR conditions should resume and will
generally persist through the remainder of the TAF period.
Additionally surface winds will remain under 10 knots through
the TAF period. It should be noted that there is a chances of
showers and storms across much of the forecast area towards the
end of the TAF period, but confidence in this aspect of the
forecast is too low for any mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC