423
FXUS63 KICT 180803
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief warm-up today followed by near normal temperatures for
  the rest of the work week.

- Slight storm chances are possible tonight in central Kansas
  with additional rain chances across the state for Wednesday
  night. Severe weather is possible with this activity.

- Another warm-up expected for the weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Currently, the region is under northwesterly flow as the ridge
center has shifted over the Desert Southwest and the ridge builds
over the Rockies. A trough is digging into the Great Lakes region
from the central Canada provinces. At the surface, the frontal
boundary that pushed across the forecast area as a cold front has
stalled out over the Red River Valley. As the ridge builds to our
southwest and heights increase over the area today, this boundary
will lift back over the state as a warm front. We will see
temperatures respond accordingly with upper 90s and lower 100s
expected areawide today. Dewpoints across the area will remain in
the lower to middle 60s leading to heat index values between 105-108
degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today from 1PM-8PM for
portions of south-central and southeast Kansas.

For tonight, as the strengthening trough digs into the Great Lakes
region, an associated frontal boundary will sweep across the
Northern Plains and into Nebraska. This feature will lead to rain
and storms impacting northern and northeastern Kansas, with some
severe activity potentially clipping our central Kansas counties.
Modest instability and shear, along with steep lapse rates, will
support a few discreet cells capable of strong wind gusts and large
hail.

The frontal boundary will slowly pass across the state on Wednesday,
leading to quite the temperature difference from north to south.
Locations in central Kansas will see highs on Wednesday in the upper
80s while spots along the KS/OK border will top out in the lower
100s. Isolated rain/storm chances return to the forecast area on
Wednesday night as a weak shortwave dips across the Central Plains
into a modestly moist airmass, severe weather looks unlikely with
this scenario.

Seasonably warm temperatures behind the front, along with a drier
air mass, are then expected for Thu/Fri. For the end of the forecast
period, models continue to show the ridge building back in over the
region from the west. Trends show warmer temperatures for the
upcoming weekend and into next week with highs in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. Long term solutions keep the strengthening ridge over
the Rockies and Plains beyond the forecast time frame suggesting
another long duration heat wave may be in store.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Can`t rule out a few showers/thunderstorms impacting RSL, SLN,
GBD, and CNU late tonight into Tuesday morning, as a weakening
southeastward moving thunderstorm complex glances the region to
the northeast, along with strengthening 850-700mb warm advection.
Chances appear too low at this time, so did not include a
mention of TSRA in 06z TAFs.

By 21-00z Tuesday late afternoon-evening, a strong cold front
moving south through the region will be the focus for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms, mainly along and north of Highway
50. The strongest activity will be capable of large hail and
damaging winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ067-068-082-083-091>093-096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...ADK