758
FXUS63 KICT 020726
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
226 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The dry weather pattern with slightly below normal temperatures
continues for today and Thursday

- July 4th, strong south winds expected with severe storms
  possible, coverage of storms look to increase at night

- Holiday weekend could remain unsettle with more chances of
  storms followed by next round of storms on Tuesday-Wednesday
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

The dry weather pattern will continue for today and Thursday with
daytime highs slightly below normal for early July. Current
satellite water vapor and ALPW analysis shows a upper level wave
spinning over the eastern Pacific just off the coastline of
southern California. This upper level system will track eastward
across the Rockies and eject northeast into Nebraska on
Friday/Friday night. As this system approaches lee troughing
will deepen over the high plains and cause surface pressure
gradient to tighten across much of Kansas. This will result in
strong and gusty south winds for Friday afternoon/evening. Like
previous update mentioned this could create issues for fireworks
displays with strong south winds expected. Meanwhile the other
concern will be thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon/night. The
better upper forcing from this system will pivot across
Nebraska where convection should be more numerous, and there is
some southern peripheral influence over central Kansas where
scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon. The
environment by the models looks to have just enough wind
shear(around 30kts 0-8km) for a few severe storms to
materialize. The coverage of storms could increase Friday night
as low level jet ramps up with Corfidi vectors guiding activity
more southward overnight. Questions arise for Saturday as this
day will predicated on the evolution of Friday night`s
convective activity. Models show a fairly unstable airmass
residing over the region through the weekend which could keep
things unsettled, especially if any upper level waves move
across the area.

Things could calm down on Monday with a continuation of daytime
highs staying slightly below normal next week. Long range models
show the upper level pattern changing to a northwest flow regime by
middle of next week. The models are also predicting a healthy upper
level wave traveling across the central plains with-in that
northwest flow regime which could bring the next round of storms to
the area Tuesday-Wednesday. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected across central and eastern Kansas
the next 24 hours. A strengthening pressure gradient will
support breezy south winds with westward extent by Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK