891
FXUS63 KICT 141105
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
605 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry this week along with seasonable temperatures
  through Friday.

- Isolated showers and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm or two may
  be possible Wed-Thu afternoon but most areas are expected to
  remain dry.

- A warming trend beginning this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Currently, a stout ridge is centered over the CONUS with weak
troughing on either coast. The upper level high is centered over the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with light easterly flow through
the column over the Central Plains. At the surface, a broad high
pressure extends from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, a
weak low pressure is placed over the Rockies. A relatively drier
airmass remains in place over the state with PWATs in the 1-1.25"
range. This is keeping dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s across
the forecast area and limiting cloud cover.

Seasonably quiet weather is expected today and tonight with high
pressure dominating the pattern. Light easterly winds, partly cloudy
skies, and temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected
for this afternoon. The ridge will remain centered over the Northern
Plains, focusing the elevated temperature anomalies to our north. By
Wednesday, while temperatures will remain steady in the lower 90s, a
weak upper level low will nudge into the Southern Plains and allow
some Gulf moisture to lift into the region with southeasterly upper
level flow. PWATs will once again approach 2" in southeast Kansas by
Wednesday afternoon/evening. This could support an isolated shower
or storm to develop in southeastern Kansas. Confidence remains low
for our area seeing any severe weather as the forcing and shear are
weak, but higher confidence exists for locations south and east of
the forecast area.

For the end of the week and into the weekend, the ridge will shift
southward as a series of shortwaves over Canada shunt the feature
over the CONUS. The upper high will pass over the region on Saturday
before settling over the High Plains by Sunday. High temperatures
for the end of the week will creep higher with the ridge center
closer. Surface high pressure will set up to our east with a low
centered over the Rockies. As our area gets pinched between these
features, southwesterly winds between 15-20 mph will be possible
each afternoon, further supporting our warming trend. Afternoon
highs on Friday will reach the mid 90s for central Kansas with
widespread mid 90s for Saturday. Then for Sunday and Monday with
anomalous heights overhead, afternoon highs will reach into the
upper 90s for most across the state. Thankfully a slightly drier
airmass will accompany the warmest temps, leading to afternoon RH
values in the 30-40% range. This will keep heat indices within a
couple degrees of actual temperatures for the end of the
forecast period, topping out near 100 degrees on Saturday-
Monday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions areawide through the forecast period. Light easterly
to southeasterly winds may reach near 10 knots for central Kansas
locations this afternoon. Otherwise, just a few clouds and dry
conditions are expected.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD