715
FXUS63 KICT 121122
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
522 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills for early
  this morning and even colder Thursday morning(Cold Weather
  Advisory in effect for late tonight-Thursday morning)

- A cold and active winter weather pattern looks to continue
  across Kansas for this weekend and into next week with two
  more storm systems on the horizon

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Arctic air will continue to spread southward across Kansas this
morning with coldest wind chills affecting central Kansas. Periods
of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will persist through the mid
morning hours with good vertical motion in a fairly deep
dendritic snow growth zone. Some locations in south
central/southeast could get an enhanced burst of snow(higher
snowfall rates) early this morning given the steeper mid-level
lapse rates residing over southern Kansas with an additional 1
to 3 inches possible on top of what has already fallen across
southern Kansas. The bulk of the snow looks to shift east of the
area by around noon today.

Arctic high pressure will build over Kansas tonight and center
itself over central Kansas on Thursday with very cold temperatures
and bitter cold wind chills in the morning. As a result, we hoisted
a cold weather advisory for the very cold conditions over central
Kansas. Arctic high pressure shifts east Thursday night with a
surface pressure gradient tightening up significantly on Friday.
Models continue to advertise 850mb wind speeds at 3 to 4 standard
deviations above normal for Friday afternoon. This will likely
generate very strong south winds which could surpass wind advisory
levels Friday afternoon.

GFS model continues to advertise another robust storm system
affecting Kansas for Friday night-Saturday and now ECMWF model is
coming on board with a similar solution. Its looking like a rain
changing to snow type event as much colder air surges southward.
Confidence is increasing for another event with accumulating snow to
impact the region again. The winds look stronger with this next
system which would also lead to some blowing and drifting of snow. A
re-enforcing shot of arctic air will accompany this system with well
below normal temperatures expected for the weekend. Heading into
next week models are highlighting good potential for yet another
winter storm system along with more arctic air. The model
signal is fairly healthy for accumulating snow to happen again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Snow and associated IFR/MVFR conditions will gradually shift
eastward throughout the day as the winter system exits the forecast
area. Current thinking is that snow at most sites should subside by
mid-morning and mostly be out of the area by 18Z. This may be
subject to change, however, if the deformation zone currently over
northwest KS continues to build to the southeast. As such, trends
will need to be monitored as the system continues to evolve.

Gusty northerly winds will continue to settle in over the region and
die down by sundown. VFR conditions will gradually take hold
throughout the day as the system departs the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
Thursday for KSZ032-033-047-048-050.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JWK