941
FXUS63 KICT 101947
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm-up starting Friday through early next week with cooler
  temperatures returning mid next week.

- Storm chances are possible Friday night, continuing into
  Saturday morning with an additional chance possible Saturday
  afternoon.

- Periodic storm chances will be possible Saturday night through
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

An upper shortwave trough is currently sliding across the Central
Plains with an additional shortwave over the Great Lakes. Weak upper
ridging is over the southeastern US as well as the southwestern US.
Showers and storms have dissipated over our area with activity still
ongoing farther south in Oklahoma as weak 700 mb WAA continues.
Cooler temperatures are being observed given the residual cloud
cover over much of eastern KS and the rainfall from this morning.
High temperatures range from the 70s in southeast KS to the mid 80s
in central KS. As we move into tonight, cloud cover will continue to
decrease with light easterly/southeasterly winds. Given the moisture
from rainfall, patchy fog looks likely to develop late tonight
through Friday morning especially for areas along and east of the
Kansas Turnpike.

A warm-up will start again on Friday as high temperatures are
forecast to return to the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Mostly dry
conditions are expected during the day Friday before chances for
showers and storms will start to increase again towards late Friday
night mainly towards the overnight hours. A LLJ is progged to
increase across western KS with the nose of the jet towards northern
KS. A cold front will start to push south through Nebraska late
Friday night with sufficient instability, potentially allowing
storms to develop along it as it makes its way to southern Nebraska.
These storms are anticipated to move south into Kansas, bringing
another potential round of rain to our area. However, there is
uncertainty as the ECMWF, GFS, and HRRR are the only solutions that
support this whereas other guidance keeps Nebraska and Kansas dry
Friday night through Saturday morning. If storms do develop, severe
weather appears possible given around 40 kts of effective shear is
progged. Trends with this activity will continue to be monitored.

For Saturday, the cold front is expected to stall out across
northern KS into portions of central KS. Just north of the boundary,
highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s with temperatures
south of the boundary in the lower 90s. By late afternoon, diurnal
heating will lead to plenty of instability developing, making
another chance for storms possible. Given the steep low-level lapse
rates, and DCAPE values over 1300 J/kg, damaging wind gusts would be
the primary concern with this activity, though large hail cannot be
ruled out given steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 kts of effective
shear. Chances for storms may linger into Saturday night and Sunday
morning as the nocturnal LLJ ramps up. By Sunday afternoon, lee
surface troughing will increase resulting in breezy southerly winds
across the area. This will aid in high temperatures returning to the
low to mid 90s on Sunday afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are
forecast for Sunday night into Monday morning as rain chances are
progged to stay north of the area.

For Monday and beyond, an upper trough over the northwestern US will
propagate northeast towards the Northern Plains by Monday afternoon.
As this trough continues to slide across the Northern Plains, it
will push a cold front south into Nebraska by Monday afternoon. Lee
troughing will remain in place across Kansas with breezy southerly
winds anticipated. Another hot day is in store for Monday as highs
once again rise into the mid 90s. This cold front will continue to
push south, likely allowing showers and storms to develop along it,
increasing chances for Monday night into Tuesday. By late Tuesday
afternoon, the front will likely make it to southern Kansas. This
will result in highs ranging from the 70s in northern Kansas to the
90s in far southern Kansas. Following this front, highs are forecast
to return to the 70s and 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. Periodic
rain chances are possible for beyond Tuesday as guidance suggests
additional shortwaves to slide across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Main aviation concern will be fog potential late tonight into
Fri morning.

Showers and storms have finally pushed southeast of the forecast
area with cigs also starting to improve. IFR levels have lifted
at all sites with most locations seeing VFR conditions. There
is a chance that some fog will develop after 09z, primarily for
locations along and east of I-135. For now ran with some 2-5sm
at KCNU-KICT-KSLN to get the ball rolling. However, if models
remain consistent, confidence is high that vis will be lowered
with later forecasts, especially at KCNU.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...RBL