662
FXUS63 KICT 050524
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous rain showers with a handful of embedded thunderstorms
  later tonight through early to mid Friday evening. Severe
  weather or flooding unlikely.

- Temperatures 20-30 degrees below average Friday.

- Below average temperatures persist through early next week,
  with a gradual warming trend back to seasonable averages by
  mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES;

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A strong and deep frontal zone moving
through from the north will be the focus for scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms moving in from the west after midnight, and
persisting off-and-on through early to mid-evening Friday. Thinking
activity will be most numerous/widespread Friday, and likely most
concentrated within an east-west band between roughly Highway 56 and
Highway 54/400, as a stout zone of 800-600mb frontogenesis sets up
across the region. While the instability and effective deep layer
shear combination are not terribly impressive, it may prove
sufficient for a few strong thunderstorms given the hefty forcing,
capable of dime-nickel size hail, especially tonight into early
Friday. As far as rainfall amounts go, thinking many locations will
see around one-quarter inch, with localized amounts upwards of one-
half to one inch. Other than the potential for very localized minor
flooding, modest rainfall rates should keep much of the flooding
potential in check.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...As the deep eastern North American upper
trough dampens and an amplified upper ridge builds in from the west,
an approaching elevated mixed layer may support increasing off-and-
on shower/storms chances by late Sunday night or Monday, as mid-
level warm advection increases. The signal for rain/storms isn`t
very strong yet, so only ran with 20-30 PoPs for now.

TEMPERATURES:

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...Widespread clouds/precipitation and
anomalously strong Canadian high pressure driven south by a digging
eastern North American upper trough will support temperatures Friday
20-30 degrees cooler than average, with daytime highs only in the
upper 50s and 60s, coolest where precipitation is most concentrated
and where it hangs around the longest. This would threaten record
cool high temperatures for September 5th, with records ranging from
63 to 68 degrees at our primary climate sites of Wichita, Salina,
Chanute, and Russell. Friday night will likely be the coolest night,
with clearing skies and light winds supporting widespread overnight
lows in the mid-upper 40s. Continued influence of cool Canadian high
pressure will support moderating but still below average
temperatures through early next week.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus
supports a warming trend back closer to seasonal averages as we head
into mid-late next week, as an amplified upper ridge attempts to
build in from the west, and a deep upper trough sets up over the
western CONUS. This will act to increase southerly flow across the
region, along with building atmospheric thickness.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through most of
the period. Showers and storms currently situated over western
Kansas will gradually shift eastward through the early morning
hours. Still anticipating coverage to expand heading toward sunrise,
with the potential for -TSRA fading by 15-16Z at most sites.
Widespread rain is expected throughout the day which may bring
visibilities down to MVFR at times. Rain will end from west to east,
with central KS sites expected to be dry by mid-afternoon.

Otherwise, light and variable winds currently observed over the
region will shift to the north as a cold front pushes through. Gusts
up to 20 kts are expected immediately behind this boundary. Still
appears that light and variable winds will return to most sites by
late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK