275
FXUS63 KICT 290842
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
242 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief period of light wet snow is possible over central Kansas
this morning(little to no accumulation expected). Strong northwest
winds will affect much of the area today, wind advisory was expanded
eastward with gusts around 45 mph for most locations

- Cold wind chills are expected early Sunday morning with readings
dropping in the single digits

- First accumulating snowfall of the season looks to impact
  mainly central Kansas on Monday, with some light snow possible
  southward towards Wichita metro

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Colder air was spreading southward early this morning with snow
falling across southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. A rain to wet
snow transition is expected over central Kansas this morning as
the colder air moves in, but loss of cloud ice looks to happen
fairly quick therefore any snowfall would be brief(little to no
snow accumulation expected). Winds will ramp up behind the cold
frontal passage with favorable signal of deeper adiabatic
mixing and strong surface pressure gradient magnitude pushing
winds into the wind advisory level. Expanded the wind advisory
eastward. Coldest air of the fall season will surge southward
for today into tonight with wind chills dropping into the single
digits by early Sunday morning. The cold airmass will be remain
over the region through Monday. Meanwhile latest water vapor
satellite imagery shows a weather system with associated strong
upper jet energy diving southward off the coast-line of British
Columbia. This will become the next weather maker for Kansas as
it dives southward across the Rockies this weekend and ejects
out into the central plains on Monday. Model ensemble
probabilities for 1" or greater on first snowfall of the season
increased a bit(yesterday was 30-50%, latest run is now 40-60%)
with central Kansas having the better chances. Some lighter snow
accumulations are still possible for locations southward
towards the Wichita metro area. Stay tuned.

Dry weather looks to prevail for Wednesday through Friday, however
some models are showing some moisture trying to work back northward
on Thursday/Thursday night and will continue to watch that
signal with late model runs. Models are in fairly good
agreement showing more cold air pushing southward into Kansas
during the day on Wednesday thus keeping daytime highs below
normal for Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cloud bases continue to slowly lower at all sites this evening
with MVFR ceilings expected at all sites within the first
several hours of this TAF period. Ceilings will rapidly lower
early Saturday morning into IFR conditions. This is all thanks
to an approaching area of low pressure that is currently across
northwest Kansas. Ahead of this low some rain showers have begun
to develop and showers are expected to expand in coverage as we
go through the morning hours.

The other concern is LLWS for SLN, HUT, ICT, and CNU as winds
about 1000 ft AGL are cranking around 50 kts out of the
southwest while surface winds are mostly out of the southeast
around 15 kts. As the surface low gets closer to the region it
will shift the strongest winds aloft to the east so LLWS will
come to an end from west to east through early Saturday morning.
This low will also bring a strong cold front through the region
Saturday morning switching winds around to the northwest and
increasing sustained winds to 20-30 kts with gusts near 40 kts.

Behind the cold front, ceilings will slowly rise through the day
with VFR conditions returning for all sites by the late
afternoon. Winds will also slowly diminish towards the end of
this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...WI