702
FXUS63 KICT 310910
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog likely early this morning across mainly southeast Kansas.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday,
  with many locations seeing highs in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a broad upper low over the Southern
Plains, with a couple smaller, more compact upper impulses
embedded in the low. One is lifting over northeast KS into NW
Missouri and another over south central Oklahoma. Wrap-around
area of precip is affecting northeast and north central KS with
a few snow flakes mixing-in over far northern KS.

Fog has started to lift across much of the area, with the exception
of southeast KS, which should continue to see some dense fog for a
few more hours, before winds come around to the northwest. Much
of south central and southeast KS will see some rain this
morning as the wrap around precip quickly pivots east. By 18z,
precip will exiting southeast KS with sunshine filling-in
behind.

By 00z Sat, upper impulse will be tracking across the Tennessee
Valley with upper pattern flattening out from the Great Basin
through the Central Plains. This will result in lee troughing on Sat
and return flow brining well above normal temps for Sat with
upper 50s and 60s anticipated. Shortwave energy is expected to
track along the Canada/U.S border Sat night and into the Western
Great Lakes region by Sun evening. This will allow some cold air
to spill south from the Northern Rockies into the Northern
Plains. In our area, winds flipping around to the northwest on
Sun will enhance downslope and bring even warmer temps, with all
locations in the 60s. Not much is expected to change for the
start of the work week, with strong zonal flow across the
Northern/Central Plains. Even though we will continue to see
northeast winds through Tue, the colder air will be confined to
locations north of our forecast area. A broad upper trough will
setup Wed from central Canada into the Great Basin and will
bring another day of return flow and warmer temps across the
Southern Plains, including most of the forecast area. As the
upper trough slides east, colder air will spill south across the
Plains for Thu and especially Fri, with highs on Fri expected
to be back into the 30s and low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Patchy dense fog impacting central and south-central KS locations
through 09Z. The deformation area of rain will swing through sites
from northwest to southeast helping to mix out the fog. Light rain
is then expected during the early morning hours leading to low
ceilings and some limited visibility concerns. This area of rain
will move through rather quickly, clearing out of most TAF sites
between 10-12Z. Ceilings will lift to VFR as the system exits out of
the region with gusty NW winds increasing during the afternoon.
Another wind switch to the southeast is expected again toward the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for KSZ098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...AMD