603
FXUS63 KICT 242352
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
652 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms possible this afternoon into the
  evening, widespread chances increasing tonight into Monday.

- Well-below normal temperatures continuing into this week.

- On-and-off scattered rain chances through the week with the
  best chances on Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Currently, there is a deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS
with its axis extending down through the Great Lakes to
Alabama/Mississippi. An upper-level ridge is over the western CONUS,
resulting in strong northwesterly flow aloft in our area. At the
surface, ridging persists in eastern KS with ongoing showers and
thunderstorms in western KS. This afternoon, it is possible for
showers and storms to continue, mainly west of I-135 where low-level
moisture transport and PWATS around 1.6" persist. Given the lack of
instability in our area, no strong or severe storms are expected. As
we move into this evening and tonight, low-level upslope flow will
help to initiate storms in the High Plains that will progress
east/southeast into western Kansas. There is uncertainty with how
far east storms will propagate, but the better chances will remain
in central to south-central Kansas. As we transition into early
Monday morning, there is consistency between the ECMWF and NAM for
our area to be in the right entrance region of the jet, making
additional shower and storm chances likely. Again, strong to severe
storms are not expected with this activity as instability values are
less than 500 J/kg. Rain chances are between 50-80% with the highest
PoPs in central to south-central Kansas for Monday morning. By
Monday afternoon, showers and storms are expected to shift to
southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma. Given expansive cloud cover is
expected and the influence of the deep upper-level trough, high
temperatures on Monday will be well below normal with highs in the
mid to upper 60s with some areas in the lower 70s.

Tuesday and beyond... Temperatures will continue to be well below
normal with highs in the 70s through much of the upcoming week.
Better precipitation chances will return to the forecast Wednesday
night into Thursday as a shortwave trough will dive southeast off
the Northern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley along with an
increasing low-level jet in our area. Instability will remain weak,
limiting strong to severe storm chances. Stay tuned as we refine
this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Main aviation concern will be storm chances late tonight through
Mon morning.

Currently expecting 850-700mb moisture transport to ramp-up
after 03z across western KS as a weak upper impulse tracks out
of the Central Rockies. This will result in an increase in
shower and storm coverage over western KS with this activity
getting into our western flank after 06z. For now have the
highest confidence in widespread showers with a few storms for
areas west of I-135, after 06z. Meanwhile, for KICT-KSLN, will
run with prob30s after 08z and even later for KCNU. As rain
moves in, ceilings will also come down, with widespread MVFR
expected for most locations by 12z Mon. By 21z, most of the
precip will be pushing south of most TAF sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...RBL