439
FXUS63 KICT 060456
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1156 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms return late this afternoon and evening in
central KS, with a few strong to severe storms possible.

- A cooldown begins Monday, widespread below normal temperatures
Tuesday, then a slight warming trend to finish out the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon indicate
continued strong mid/upper flow over the Plains as a lead shortwave
lifts to the northeast over the Dakotas. The associated cold front
spans from the Oklahoma Panhandle through western Kansas into far
eastern South Dakota. This feature is expected to continue advancing
eastward through the afternoon hours, with short-term ensembles
remaining consistent in their expectation for showers and storms
developing along it around/after 6 PM in locations just west of
Russell and Barton Counties. As previous discussions have
highlighted, steep low-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km) alongside modest
values in the mid-levels will allow for roughly 1000 J/kg of CAPE.
With the mid/upper jet overhead, effective shear values in the 30-40
kt range combined with a veering vertical wind profile and this
instability may allow for the development of some strong to severe
thunderstorms especially prior to sunset in central Kansas. DCAPE
values around 1000 J/kg suggest a threat for wind gusts up to 65 mph
with the strongest storms, though hail up to quarter size may be
possible as well. Additionally, with steering flow oriented roughly
parallel to the front amid PWATs 150-200% of normal, training
showers and storms may present a flooding risk going into the
overnight hours in central Kansas as the system slowly moves to the
east.

Below normal high temperatures (60s and low 70s) are expected to
begin the work week on Monday in central Kansas thanks to low clouds
and continuing rain. This area of cooler temperatures could expand
into south central Kansas depending on low cloud coverage, but
decided to confine to areas primarily north of US-50 due to
uncertainty in cloud coverage at this time. Confidence is higher in
cooler highs areawide on Tuesday with forecast values five to ten
degrees below average for this time of year. These are not
anticipated to last for long thanks to the mid-level ridge building
back in by Wednesday, which will allow for a slight warming trend
and highs returning to the upper 70s and low 80s to close out the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue across central KS along a
strong cold front. This front and axis of showers and storms
will gradually shift south and southeast through the overnight
hours into Monday. MVFR to IFR CIGS will overspread the
terminals behind the frontal zone throughout the day Monday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ