261
FXUS63 KICT 171123
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
623 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated  to scattered showers and thunderstorms late this
  morning through the afternoon; no severe weather expected

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday
  afternoon; no severe weather expected

- Temperatures near 100 degrees possible Monday-Tuesday with
  heat index values around 105 degrees

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

As of 2 AM Friday morning, longwave, midlevel ridging continues to
dominate much of the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. A cutoff midlevel
low continues to spin across portions of southwest TX, producing
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall across the TX Hill Country. The
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS
Thursday quickly ended with sunset. Skies remain mostly clear
across the forecast area with temperatures in the 70s. A rinse
and repeat forecast is expected late this morning through this
afternoon. Convective temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees will be met by late morning/midday. This should result
in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across much of
the forecast area. The greatest coverage of showers and
thunderstorms should remain generally southeast of the KS
Turnpike and within the PW axis (1.8-2"). Similar to Thursday,
effective shear will remain less than 10 kt, supporting pulse
convection with brief heavy rainfall and occasional lightning.
Upon sunset, the vast majority of convection should dissipate.

Transitioning into Saturday, the midlevel ridge axis will progress
eastward into the central/northern Plains. This will promote a
gradual warming trend with daytime highs reaching the low to mid
90s. The overall airmass will remain tropic-like with PW values
approaching 2". Minimal mixed-layer inhibition by afternoon may
promote a few thunderstorms area-wide. The midlevel ridge axis will
deamplify across the Plains Sunday as a shortwave trough ejects
across the northern Rockies. The ridge axis will deamplify across
the central and northern Rockies Sunday-Tuesday. SREF/EPS/GEFS mean
850 mb temperature anomalies are forecast to range from 4-8 C
Monday. This will result in afternoon temperatures approaching
100 degrees. Dew points will remain in the 60s to near 70,
resulting in heat index values around 105 degrees Monday
afternoon. A shortwave trough is progged to dive southeast from
the northern Plains late Monday into Tuesday, shunting a cold
front into the area Tuesday. The exact timing of the front will
prove critical to temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Areas south of
the front will see temperatures approach 100 (heat index values
around 105), whereas post-frontal areas will see temperatures
remain in the low 90s. The front will clear the entire area by
Wednesday with highs in the low 90s area-wide. Mid to long range
guidance is suggesting northwest midlevel may remain across the
central Plains through the mid to latter portions of next week.
This may allow for more-widespread rain chances to return to
the area. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. A diurnal
cumulus field is expected near all sites with bases between 4-7
kft. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon but coverage is expected to remain too sparse for any
SHRA or TSRA mention at any site. Southerly winds will increase
to 10-15 kt by mid-morning before decreasing below 10 kt by 02Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF