520
FXUS63 KICT 190750
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
250 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered storms through Tonight, with
  additional chances this weekend into early next week.

- Triple digit heat indices again this afternoon.

- A cooldown will arrive this weekend and persist into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A decaying complex of storms across the Central High Plains has sent
an outflow boundary into central KS. Recent convection has developed
along this boundary shortly after midnight. Storm motions are
nearly stationary which will lead to some pockets of heavy rain
through the early morning hours. We could see some lingering storms
and perhaps some new development at times through the predawn hours
that may spill into the morning hours on Tuesday.

A shortwave trough dropping southeastward over the Middle and Upper
Mississippi Valley area today will drive a cold front south into the
area while an MVC may drift off of the Central High Plains both
becoming a focus for afternoon showers and storms during peak
heating. We continue to see a weakly sheared airmass with high PWATs
and considerable buoyancy. A handful of strong to severe storms with
damaging winds and locally heavy rain appear possible. This activity
is expected to grow upscale and propagate into northern OK during
the evening hours.

Wednesday-Friday...The mid/upper ridge is progged to remain centered
over the Southwest through the period while the ridge axis slowly
rotates across the Central Plains. This will lead to seasonably warm
and dry weather conditions through the period. Afternoon highs are
expected to rise into the 90-94 degree range for most areas while
lows fall into the 60s.

Saturday-Monday...A vigorous mid/upper trough over Manitoba on
Friday will dig across Ontario toward the Great Lakes helping to
drive another frontal boundary southward across the Central Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the fropa Friday night into
early Sat. We also expect a surge of drier and much cooler air
arriving on Sat. A reinforcing surge may arrive late Sunday into
Monday with highs remaining in the 70s Mon-Tue. Low pops were
maintained  for early next week but a further south frontal position
may keep the higher probabilities for showers and storms
further south into the Southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

In general, VFR conditions will be most prevalent across the
area, but isolated to widely scattered storms are possible
through the TAF period.

Early this morning, areas of ACCAS where noted across portions
of central and southeast Kansas. Some isolated shower and storm
development is possible early this morning across these areas,
but warm mid-level temperatures should cap off any widespread
convection. Later on this afternoon, a slow moving frontal
boundary will sink into central/south-central Kansas, and widely
scattered storms are possible during peak diurnal heating. Some
of these storms could produce downburst wind gusts around 40-50
knots. Elected to go with PROB30s for KICT and KCNU for this
possibility; however, uncertainty in the forecast remains quite
high. Chances for showers and storms should come to an end by
the nighttime hours.

Winds will generally remain at or below 7 knots, and will likely
be variable.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC