790
FXUS63 KICT 151057
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
557 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry this week along with seasonable temperatures
  through Friday.

- Isolated showers and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm or two may
  be possible this afternoon and again on Thursday afternoon,
  but most areas are expected to remain dry.

- A warming trend beginning this weekend and lasting into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Currently, a prominent ridge is centered over the Northern Plains
and into the Upper Midwest. Temperatures to our north have been
reaching well above normal, but we have been removed enough to the
south of the upper high to see near normal temperatures the past
several days. At the surface, high pressure sits over the
Mississippi Valley placing us solidly in light easterly flow. A
stationary boundary has been parked across the Southern Plains,
stretching into the Southeast with weak surface lows along this
feature. Thus far, moisture has been focused along this boundary,
keeping us relatively dry.

For today and Thursday, temperatures will remain near normal in the
lower 90s as the anomalous heights remain to our north for now. As a
weak upper level low develops over the Southern Plains it will begin
to lift and wash out the boundary to our south. This will allow some
Gulf moisture to lift into the region with southeasterly upper level
flow. PWATs will once again approach 2" in southeast Kansas by this
afternoon/evening, lingering into Thursday. MUCAPE values across the
area will reach between 2000-2500 J/kg each afternoon. This
combination could support isolated, diurnally driven showers and
storms in southeastern Kansas. It continues to remain unlikely that
we would see much in terms of severe weather as shear appears
negligible, but we could see briefly heavy rainfall and gusty winds
with the strongest activity.

From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, the ridge
will shift southward as a series of shortwaves over Canada shunt the
feature over the CONUS. The upper high will become a bit more diffuse
for Fri/Sat, then we will see heights increase to our west over the
High Plains on Sunday, and then extending over the Central Plains on
Monday. Surface high pressure will set up to our east by Friday with
a low centered over the Rockies. As our area gets pinched between
these features, southwesterly winds between 10-20 mph will be
possible each afternoon for Fri-Sun, further supporting our warming
trend. Afternoon highs on Friday will reach the mid 90s for central
Kansas with widespread mid 90s for Saturday. Then for Sunday and
Monday with anomalous heights overhead, afternoon highs will reach
into the upper 90s for most across the state, with 100 degree
readings possible. Thankfully a slightly drier airmass will
accompany the warmest temps, leading to afternoon RH values in the
30-40% range. This will keep heat indices within a couple degrees of
actual temperatures for the end of the forecast period, topping out
near 100 degrees on Saturday-Monday afternoons.

A pattern change looks to unfold by the very end of the forecast
period as a deep trough passes over the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday. This will act to squash the ridge further south and west.
Heights will begin falling across the state, and temperatures will
respond accordingly. Early indications are that by mid week, we
could see temperatures closer to normal for this time of year,
topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions areawide through the forecast period. Light easterly
to southeasterly winds between 5-10 knots are expected areawide
through the time frame. Isolated shower/storm is possible in
southeast Kansas this afternoon into the early evening. Confidence
remains low in overall coverage and placement.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD