091
FXUS63 KICT 220337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1037 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of seasonal temps before cooler temps for the
  weekend. Still looking for a significant cool down starting
  Monday and continuing through most of next week.

- Rain chances will increase Sunday night into Monday with off
  and on chances through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Currently have upper ridging centered over the Four Corners region
with a weak upper trough extending through the Southeast CONUS.
Meanwhile, a more robust upper trough is moving into Saskatchewan.

Central Canada upper trough will continue tracking east and by Fri
morning will be moving into Manitoba and into western Ontario by Fri
evening. This will allow a strong cold front to start its push south
across the Northern Plains. So we are looking for one more day of
temps near normal for Fri with highs generally in the 90-95 range.
Initial cold front is expected to move through late Fri night into
Sat morning, knocking highs down into the 80s for Sat. In addition,
rain chances will follow behind the front on Sat, but with lack of
upper support, not looking for anything significant or widespread.

GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with another piece of energy
tracking down across the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Great
Lakes region for Sun into Sun evening. This will allow another surge
of colder air to spill south across the Plains. This will knock
highs down into the 70s for Mon with some locations on Tue not
making it out of the 60s. This will be around 20-25 degrees below
normal  highs for this time of year.

Deep upslope flow and upper diffluence will allow for increased storm
chances over the High Plains, especially for Sun night, with this
activity tracking east into Mon morning. The late Sun night into Mon
time frame looks like our best chance for meaningful rain at this
time. Shower/storm chances look to sink slightly south for Mon night
into Tue with southwest/southern KS into OK having the better
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Quiet VFR conditions will prevail across the region the next
21-24 hours, as surface high pressure settles over Mid-America.
Toward 03-06z Friday evening-night, a cold front approaching
from the north may support a few thunderstorms in the vicinity
of RSL, SLN, and GBD. Covered this threat with PROB30 -TSRA for
now.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK