826
FXUS63 KICT 110343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1043 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures continuing into this weekend with increasing
  southerly winds.

- Rain chances expected to return Sunday night into Monday with
  better chances on Monday morning.

- Near-normal temperatures to start the week before above normal
  temperatures return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Currently, there is upper-level ridging with the ridge axis
extending down from the Northern to the Southern Plains, resulting
in northwesterly flow aloft in our area. At the surface, a cold
front is draped across central KS. This front is expected to push
farther south tonight near the KS/OK border. However, this front is
not expected to bring cooler temperatures. With upper-level ridging
in place, drier weather and above-normal temperatures will continue
to persist into the weekend. Afternoon highs are expected to climb
into the mid to upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday, which is 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. This ridge will shift
slightly east on Saturday afternoon causing the front to lift back
north. In addition, a strong pressure gradient will develop by
Saturday afternoon, increasing southerly winds at the surface.
Sustained winds will likely be between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-
35 mph especially in central KS on Saturday afternoon. A deep upper-
level trough over the western CONUS will begin to approach the
Northern Plains by Sunday morning. In our area, this will further
strengthen the pressure gradient causing sustained southerly winds
around 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35-40 mph over much of central and
south-central KS on Sunday afternoon.

This upper-level trough will push a cold front into Kansas on Sunday
night, increasing chances for precipitation Sunday night into
Monday. However, better rain chances are expected on Monday morning,
though given model discrepancy, there is still uncertainty with
location and coverage. PWAT values are generally expected to be
above 1.4" which is about 200% greater than normal for this time of
year. This will lead to efficient rainfall for any shower or storm
that develops. Given generally less than 200 J/kg of instability is
forecast, mainly rain showers and maybe a few embedded storms are
expected. Strong to severe storms are not anticipated. Following the
front, cooler temperatures are expected on Monday and Tuesday.
Afternoon highs will be in the 60s to 70s which is closer to near
normal temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

By Wednesday, another deep upper-level trough is expected to dig
into the southwest CONUS, returning westerly to southwesterly flow
aloft in our area. At the surface, southerly flow will return along
with above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Aviation concerns are still looking to remain on the low side
through the next 24 hours.

Surface low pressure will strengthen over Eastern CO on Sat
which will turn winds around to the southeast and increase them
by the afternoon hours. A few gusts to 30 mph still look
possible for locations west of I-135 Sat afternoon. Confidence
remains high in VFR conditions remaining in place with low
clouds and fog tonight remaining east of our TAF sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...RBL