792
FXUS63 KICT 221730
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm temperatures through this week.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances this evening through at least Thursday
  night. A few storms may be strong or severe.

- Additional off-and-on thunderstorm chances may be possible
  Saturday evening through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Zonal upper-level flow will remain over the forecast area today. At
the surface, a weak cold front is slowly shifting southward across
Nebraska and into northwest Kansas. This front will continue
shifting south today but will stall across Kansas draping from the
southwest corner to the northeast corner of the state. A weak low is
expected to develop/move to near Dodge City along this frontal
boundary and to the south of the low a fairly diffuse dryline is
expected to develop. This will lead to increasing southerly winds
across the forecast area with sustained winds around 15-20 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph. This will help to warm temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s and advect upper 50 dewpoints into south
central Kansas by early this evening. Capping inversion will be in
place for much of the day hence dry weather is expected however
where convergence is maximized along the dry line/cold front is
where a few isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the late afternoon and early evening. Convergence currently
looks strongest across the northeast Texas Panhandle and into
northwestern Oklahoma which is where initial thunderstorm
development is most likely. These storms may end up remaining
south of the forecast area as right moving supercells are
expected to shift to the east southeast.

However, as we go into the evening hours a LLJ is expected to
intensify as a weak perturbation moves overhead. Lift along the nose
of this jet may be sufficient for additional thunderstorm
development across our forecast area during the evening hours.
The environment will be characterized by surface based CAPE
around 1500 J/kg but with fairly dry air up to around 5,000 ft.
While the deep layer flow isn`t overly strong, veering with
height combined with the modest increase in speed will still
lead to effective bulk shear values around 40 kts with some
sweeping of the hodograph at lower levels before becoming nearly
straight aloft. This would be supportive for a few supercells
to develop and gradually move eastward during the late evening
hours. With increasing CIN away from the front, the loss of
daytime heating, and a decrease in upper-level lift, it remains
uncertain how far east this activity will be able to spread
before dissipating. The main threat with any storm that develops
would be large hail up to ping pong ball sized and damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph. Believe this activity will be isolated
at best, so most locations probably won`t see thunderstorms
tonight.

Confidence in precipitation chances diminish for Wednesday and
beyond as the previous days convection will play a role in where the
best chances for the next days precipitation will be. But with
southwesterly flow persisting through Thursday and the potential for
remnant boundaries to remain over the area, shower and thunderstorm
chances will remain possible each day through the end of the week.
The overall environment won`t change much either with low-level
moisture remaining in place hence each day has at least some
potential for severe weather. Temperatures won`t vary much
Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures mainly in the low
to mid 70s and overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s.

Another front is expected to move through the forecast area Friday
which will bump temperatures down slightly on Friday into the upper
60s to lower 70s. This front combined with weak ridging moving over
the forecast area may diminish precipitation chances on Friday and
into the first half of Saturday but confidence on the timing of the
front and how far south this front will move remains low at this
time hence at least a slight chance of precipitation remains in the
forecast for both days. Upper-level flow will become southwesterly
once again late Saturday as troughing moves into the western CONUS
which should lead to an uptick in the potential for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Main aviation concern will be storm chances this evening.

Currently have a stationary front extending from extreme
southeast Nebraska into western KS with a dryline extending
south of this feature into the OK/TX Panhandle. Currently
expecting a few storms to develop southwest of the forecast area
in the 22-00z time frame and track northeast At this point,
confidence remains very low on the number of storms and how far
east they make it. So will leave mention out of TAFs for now.
May also see additional development this evening as low level
jet processes ramp-up, but confidence is low on which areas
would see the better chances. So will once again wait until
confidence increases before we mention in our TAFs. Outside of
storms, VFR conditions will remain in place.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...RBL