723
FXUS63 KICT 160808
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, near normal temperatures expected today and Monday.

- Brief warm-up on Tuesday, followed by seasonable temperatures
  for the end of the week.

- Slight rain chances are possible each night with more
  widespread rain chances expected Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Currently, the ridge is centered over the Southeastern US with the
ridge axis extending northward into the Great Lakes. Broad troughing
is digging into the northern US from the Canadian Prairies. A
surface front extends generally along Hwy 50, though the mid-level
baroclinic zone is located further north along I-70. It is in this
corridor that we`re also seeing anomalously high PWATs. As the
LLJ increased overnight, storms fired along the nose of the jet
and quickly formed into a bowing MCS that propagated east-
northeast along the mid-level baroclinic zone. As of 245AM, this
segment is pushing out of the forecast area with stratiform
rain and lightning lingering in its wake. This stratiform
activity will linger across central Kansas through daybreak
before diminishing and pushing east out of the region.

Through the rest of today, as an upper level trough continues to
traverse the Canadian Prairies and the northern tier of the US, the
ridge will be squashed further south. The stationary boundary that
has been draped across the state is finally pushing southward across
the state as a cold front. Early this morning, winds have turned
northward across much of central Kansas, but the widespread "cooler"
temperatures will lag behind the boundary slightly. Central and
portions of south-central Kansas can expect more seasonable
temperatures (upper 80s, lower 90s) this afternoon, but
temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 will linger for the
far southern counties in the forecast area. A few showers or
storms are possible across central Kansas this afternoon along a
remnant outflow boundary from the overnight MCS, widespread
convection is not anticipated. Then, just behind the front in
southern Kansas later tonight into Monday morning, moisture will
linger allowing for a few isolated showers and sub-severe
storms to develop near the frontal boundary. Drier air will
begin to filter into the region later on Monday with widespread
upper 80s and 90s for the forecast area on Monday afternoon.

Then by Tuesday, the trough will dig into the Great Lakes region and
the northeastern tier of the US and ridging will begin to build back
in over the Plains from the west. We will see temperatures respond
accordingly with upper 90s and lower 100s expected areawide on
Tuesday. The widespread heat will be short-lived as a shortwave will
sweep across the Plains on Wednesday. The placement of the
corresponding surface boundary will lead to cooler temperatures
Wednesday afternoon across central Kansas, with 100s across southern
portions of the state. POPs increase for the region on Wednesday
night with the approach/passage of the front.

Seasonably mild temperatures behind the front, along with a drier
air mass, are then expected for Thu/Fri. For the tail end of the
forecast period, models are suggesting we may see the ridge try to
build back in over the region from the west. Currently maintaining
seasonably warm temperatures for day 7 (Saturday), but this
trend could lead to more widespread heat beyond the forecast
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms continues to approach central KS.
Trends over the last 1-2 hours reveal an overall weakening trend
with the cluster, although winds up to 40-45 kt are possible
near RSL. Otherwise, SLN stands the next greatest potential for
convection but that potential seems to be decreasing with model
and radar trends. The better chances may remain north of SLN.
A wind shift to the north/northwest will take place at all
terminals by dawn with speeds 8-12 kt.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF