901
FXUS63 KICT 220005
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
705 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out along I-70 this afternoon
  and evening.

- Dangerous heat gradually waning by mid-week.

- Periodic low storm chances late Wednesday through Friday. Best chances
  Thursday afternoon-night.

- Heat likely to return this weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Morning elevated convection across northeast Kansas has left a
diffuse outflow/differential heating boundary from approximately
Salina to Chanute early this afternoon. This boundary extends
further northwest into north-central Kansas where it meets the nose
of a surface trough across western Kansas and far southern Nebraska.
Additional storms have developed across north-central Kansas early
this afternoon where these two features meet, and an outflow
boundary from this convection will likely lead to additional
development of showers and storms later this afternoon through
tonight for locations mainly along and north of I-70. Shear is
fairly modest (generally around 15 knots), but MLCAPE around 4000
J/kg could support a couple strong to severe storms along the I-70
corridor later this afternoon and this evening. Main concerns will
be wind gusts around 50-60 mph, the potential for heavy rainfall,
and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Surface convergence will
wane tonight, and the mid-level baroclinic zone that was the
catalyst for convection this morning will likely lift northward
keeping rain chances well north of the CWA come Tuesday morning.

Despite afternoon temperatures near the century mark Tuesday
afternoon, gusty winds due to a tight pressure gradient along with
surface winds being slightly west of due south should allow for
moisture to mix out a bit better, and heat indices will struggle to
get to or above 105 as result. However, we`ve elected to keep the
Extreme Heat Warning for now given the longevity of heat indices of
at least 105. The upper ridge moves eastward by Wednesday, and this
will support afternoon temperatures being a little less hot than
today and Tuesday. Again heat indices will struggle to reach 105
Wednesday afternoon given slightly "cooler" temperatures. Subtle
mid/upper troughing will settle in across the central plains and
will leave the door open for periodic storm chances Wednesday night
through Friday. Though shear won`t be stellar, 15 to 25 knots of 0-6
km shear, along with decent instability (despite fairly meager lapse
rates) could support an isolated strong or severe storm or two,
especially Thursday afternoon and evening.

After Friday, long range global deterministic and ensemble models
suggest a fairly robust, anomalously strong ridge developing across
a large portion of the central CONUS. 50-70% probabilities of 500 mb
heights exceeding the 99.5th percentile were noted on the EPS and
GEFS later this weekend into early next week suggesting another
prolonged period of hot temperatures across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The main challenges are in the short term with ongoing
convective development especially over northern Kansas. At this
time, KRSL and KSLN will be primarily impacted with a chance
for KGBD. The activity is expected to slowly move south and east.
An amendment may be needed to switch to a prevailing TSRA
depending on how this activity evolves. Additionally other sites
might (KHUT and KICT) may need to be added if there is a greater
southern push. Severe storms could produce up to half dollar
sized hail and 70 mph winds. Heavy rainfall would be expected
with this activity could bring IFR even LIFR conditions if it
impacts the site directly. Otherwise winds should diminish this
evening into tonight. Mixing will bring them up again late
morning through the afternoon with speeds around 15-20kts and
gusts to 30-35kts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...VJP