315
FXUS63 KICT 121852
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
152 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered strong to perhaps severe storms are possible late
  tonight across mainly southern Kansas.

- Heavy rain late tonight through Saturday night may lead to flooding
  concerns, especially in southeast Kansas where antecedent
  conditions remain favorable for flooding/flash flooding.

- A better signal for strong/severe storms may arrive on Saturday
  afternoon and Saturday and evening.

- Cooler temperatures and dry weather to follow for Sunday and
  Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

After a tranquil weather day today we are expecting some storms to
return to the forecast area late tonight. We continue to see
mid/upper ridging confined to the southern CONUS with a persistent
trough over southern Canada. The belt of stronger westerlies lies
across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area while some enhanced
westerly flow in the mid-levels extends southward into the Central
Plains. At the surface, a cold front drove the hot and humid air
immediately south of the area but this airmass is poised to return
tonight as sfc cyclogenesis over the High Plains helps tighten the
pressure gradient allowing breezy southerly winds to return and
advect the airmass northward rather quickly. The lower 70 dewpoints
were confined to the Red River area this morning and are expected to
return to southern Kansas by this evening. We continue to see
support for some deep moist convection developing across the High
Plains along a subtle warm frontal segment. This activity is
expected to propagate eastward tonight aided by a nocturnal LLJ.
Other elevated storms could develop along the nose of the LLJ
through the late night and early morning hours. The high PWAT
airmass is progged to return tonight as the LLJ helps transport
moisture northward. Efficient rainfall with high rainfall rates is
anticipated once again. This could reignite flooding across our
southeast KS counties late tonight while lingering into the day on
Saturday as another round of storms arrives later in the period.
GEFS has shown a persistent signal for 2-3 inches of rainfall across
parts of southeast KS through the period (late tonight through Sat
night). The latest HREF neighborhood probabilities for exceeding 2
inches is 50-80% across parts of southeast Kansas and a Flood Watch
will be issued for this area where confidence is highest. We may
also see some strong/severe potential tonight/early Sat with steep
mid-lvl lapse rates/lengthy 1-6km shear vectors and a plethora of
elevated CAPE progged.

A southward sagging cold front is expected to arrive in our central
KS counties on Saturday afternoon. This front will provide a focus
for showers and thunderstorms after 20-21Z when the cap weakens.
There remains support for linear forcing along the front supporting
clustering of storms with damaging winds and large hail possible
given steep mid-lvl lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear around 40+
knots. A forward propagating convection system appears likely into
the evening/overnight hours with the largest impacts anticipated in
southeast KS. Low level flow may be veered across south central KS
in the wake of morning convection but a dryline may sharpen across
the Flint Hills where moderate to extreme buoyancy is progged.
Confidence in the mesoscale details is sketchy due to impacts from
morning convection which could linger over southeast KS lowering
confidence in timing and how robust the afternoon/evening event will
evolve.

Sun-Mon...a stable post-frontal regime will build over the area in
the wake of the front on Sun-Mon with seasonably cool temperatures
anticipated. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach 80 in most areas.

Another shortwave trough moving over the Northern Plains and into
the Great Lakes late in the day may bring a chance for
showers/storms to the area (especially central KS) on Tuesday
afternoon as the trailing frontal boundary provides a focus for
afternoon initiation. Northwest mid/upper flow will provide robust
deep layer shear, even in the absence of quality low level moisture
for some organized deep moist convection. The nocturnal LLJ may
allow for some of this activity to linger into the evening/overnight
hours.

Northwest mid/upper flow is progged to prevail Wed-Fri with nothing
really standing out in terms of precipitation at this time. Rising
heights/increasing thickness will support rising temperatures,
especially on Wed when we have a prefrontal trough and southwest
winds allowing highs to soar into the upper 90s+. A frontal passage
will usher in more seasonable values for Thu-Fri. The front could
provide a focus for another rounds of storms, but confidence remains
low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR will prevail today with increasing southeast winds over
central KS as we move through the afternoon hours. Some gusts
over 20 knots are expected to develop this afternoon. There
remains some potential for showers and thunderstorms tracking
eastward across mainly southern KS late tonight, although widely
scattered storms may develop during the predawn hours over parts
of central and southeast Kansas. PROB30 groups were maintained
where confidence is highest over southern Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning for
KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ