481
FXUS63 KICT 072318
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
618 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon
  through Sunday night mainly in southern Kansas.

- Dry weather for Monday through Wednesday with highs in the
 lower 80s to lower 90s.

- Chances for showers and storms return late Wednesday into the
  end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon into
the evening with the available moisture and reaching convective
temperatures. Visible satellite has continued to show cumulus
development through the day. If a shower or storm were to
develop, the concerns would be brief moderate to heavy rain and
lightning. Otherwise it should be dry for most locations into
Sunday.

A wave over the Northern Plains will track southeast and its
associated cold front drops south through Kansas on Sunday.
This brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms with
the highest chances along the Kansas/Oklahoma border during the
afternoon in the nighttime hours. Potential remains for strong
to severe storms across southern Kansas given the instability
and modest shear available. The main threats would be wind gusts
up to 70 mph and up to golf ball sized hail. Locally heavy
rainfall remains a concern especially over the saturated
surfaces of this same area which could quickly lead to
additional flooding or exacerbate ongoing flooding. Depending on
the timing of the front and respective position, this could
adjust the location for convection which may be shifted further
south. This will certainly be refined with the next issuance and
updates given the latest guidance and observational trends.

After a fairly active week, a ridge moves into the central CONUS
for the start of the week. This will allow things to dry out for
a few days before the next system pushes in for the latter half
of the week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower
80s to lower 90s for this period. The next chances for showers
and storms move in late Wednesday into next weekend. There is
still plenty of time for changes to occur in this part of the
forecast. As mentioned in the previous discussion, an increase
in available moisture with dewpoints rising into the 70s
combined with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s could result
in heat indices approaching the triple digit mark next weekend;
the forecast sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph would help at
least.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northwesterly
winds will become light and variable by 02Z. A cold front will
begin to move through the area from north to south during the
morning and early afternoon hours Sunday. Finally, thunderstorms
are possible Sunday afternoon for areas mainly along and south
of Highway 50. Introduced a PROB30 group at HUT/ICT/CNU during
the mid to late afternoon hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC/VJP
AVIATION...BRF