297
FXUS63 KICT 041058
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
558 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across central KS
this morning with additional chances area-wide this afternoon

- Active weather pattern into early next week; widespread severe
weather is not anticipated

- Seasonal temperatures over the next week with highs in the
  80s/90s

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

As of 2 AM Thursday morning, an expansive midlevel ridge remains
across the eastern CONUS with troughing from the Baja region through
central high Plains. A midlevel shortwave trough was located from
the TX Panhandle through west-central KS. This feature continues to
result in numerous showers and thunderstorms from the TX Panhandle
through eastern NE. Thus far, the bulk of rain showers and
thunderstorms have remained west of I-135. This is likely to be case
for the remainder of the nighttime hours. While severe weather is
not anticipated, PW values up to 1.6" will support heavy rainfall.

The aforementioned midlevel shortwave trough is progged to slowly
lift across western KS and into NE throughout the day today. The
lack of mixed-layer inhibition combined with the large scale ascent
should result in another afternoon of scattered thunderstorms with
the greatest coverage across central KS. HREF mean surface based
instability is forecast to approach 2000 J/kg across portions of
central and south-central KS this afternoon. Midlevel winds remain
quite weak (generally 25-30 kt) but sufficient veering will produce
effective shear values up to 30 kt. As such, a few thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce hail up to quarter size, wind
gusts up to 60 mph, and heavy rainfall.

Much of Friday is expected to remain dry as midlevel heights
gradually increase. A northern stream shortwave trough will traverse
the northern Plains Friday afternoon/evening. This will shunt a weak
surface trough axis into northern KS by late afternoon. Increasing
convergence along the front is likely result in thunderstorm
development from portions of northern KS into NE/IA. Surface dew
points near 70 across portions of central/northern KS will overlap
midlevel lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, resulting in 3000-4000 J/kg of
MLCAPE Friday evening. Weak midlevel flow will limit effective shear
to 20-30 kt. This overlap of instability, shear, and high PW
environment will support hail up to golf ball size, damaging winds
up to 60 mph, and heavy rainfall. The potential for an isolated
severe storm or two is mainly confined to areas along/north of I-
70.

The greatest potential for widespread rainfall appears to arrive
late Saturday through Sunday night as a slow moving shortwave trough
glides from the southern high Plains through central and eastern KS.
There remains some discrepancy with the exact track of the shortwave
trough with the ECMWF lifting the trough from the TX Panhandle into
west-central KS. The GFS/NAM have an eastern track and lift
shortwave trough across eastern KS. This eastern track would confine
the best rain chances to southeast KS. Model trends will need to be
monitored over the next 24-36 hours. On the heels of the shortwave
trough passage Sunday, a surface trough axis will deepen across the
central/northern high Plains as a northern stream shortwave trough
traverses the northern Rockies. Thunderstorms are likely to develop
across northeast CO/southeast WY/western NE Sunday afternoon. A
strengthening LLJ (30-40 kt) may allow for convection to grow
upscale into an MCS Sunday evening and propagate east or southeast
along an instability. There remains model spread where this
instability gradient will develop and currently ranges from west-
central NE through southeast NE (GFS) to southwest NE through east-
central KS (ECMWF). Certainly something to keep an eye on over the
coming days. A similar scenario may evolve late Monday into Tuesday
with high Plains convection spreading east/southeast into the
nighttime hours. Rain chances will begin to decrease towards the
middle of next week as the midlevel ridge amplifies across the
central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the upcoming TAF period. The first round is ongoing
across portions of central and western KS and second round of
isolated to scattered showers/storms is expected this afternoon
across portions of central and south-central KS. Due to low
confidence in storm coverage have opted for a prevailing VCSH
from mid-morning through early evening with a PROB30 during the
afternoon hours for -TSRA. Amendments may be needed later as
confidence increases for -TSRA conditions. Southerly winds will
increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Marginal LLWS
conditions are possible at all sites late tonight into Friday
morning.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF