981
FXUS63 KICT 020547
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Canadian wildfires will continue to lead to areas of smoke through
  Saturday morning

- A stray shower or storm possible across central KS this
  afternoon and late tonight; widespread storm chances Saturday
  night into Sunday

- Temperatures will remain below normal into next week before a
  warming trend ensues the second half of next week&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

As of 2 PM Friday afternoon, zonal midlevel flow remains across the
central Plains with the core of the ridge across NM and west TX. An
expansive surface ridge axis extends from the upper midwest through
portions of central and eastern KS. A plume of smoke from
Canadian wildfires has overspread the region with visibilities
generally in the 4-6 mile range. This smoke is likely to persist
overnight into Saturday morning with the ridge axis remaining
nearby. As the ridge axis slides east through the morning
Saturday, southerly winds will return, shunting the smoke back
north. In regards to precipitation today and tonight, a remnant
MCV across north central KS continues to produce scattered
showers and storms near the I-70 corridor of central KS. As the
MCV drifts east this afternoon, additional showers and storms
are possible along and north of I-70. Further west, upslope flow
across northeast CO and eastern WY will result in additional
storm development with a gradual propagation to the east and
southeast. Similar to this morning, the LLJ is forecast to
remain quite weak (less than 20 kt), therefore it`s quite
uncertain whether storms can reach central KS. Should an MCV
develop, the potential will most definitely increase than what`s
current projected.

Transitioning into Saturday and Saturday night, upslope flow will
resume across the high Plains with storms developing during the
afternoon and evening. A stronger LLJ (25-35 kt) is forecast to
develop Saturday night, which is likely to provide maintenance to
convection into Sunday morning. At this point the best storm chances
exist generally along and west of I-135 (50-70%). Steep lapse rates
will contribute to elevated instability near 2000 J/kg with some
veering and acceleration of the wind profile to yield 20-30 kt of
effective shear. All of that to say, wind gusts near 60 mph, hail up
to quarter size, and heavy rainfall are the chief concerns.
Confidence greatly decreases into the daytime hours Sunday. Shear
and instability are likely to remain in place but a focal point for
convective development is unknown and is likely to be tied to any
convective outflow boundaries. Any storm that does develop Sunday
afternoon may the potential to become severe as hodographs lengthen
with the arrival of stronger midlevel winds.

Beyond Sunday, the midlevel ridge will begin to spread east into the
Plains, leaving central and eastern KS on its northeast
periphery. While temperatures will return to the 90s by midweek,
nocturnal convection will be possible with weak perturbations
rounding the ridge axis and diving across central and eastern
KS. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Smoke and haze from Canadian wildfires will support areas of
low VFR to MVFR visibilities across the region through at least
Saturday morning and possibly into the afternoon. Approaching
showers and storms should diminish as they move towards our
area, but it is possible for them to reach RSL and GBD keeping a
PROB30 in place. The main impacts would be gusty winds and brief
heavy rain.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...GC