082
FXUS63 KICT 011945
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances become likely tonight across portions of
  central and south-central KS, with severe weather possible.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible each day Tuesday through
  Sunday, widespread severe weather is unlikely

- Seasonal temperatures for Tue-Sun with highs in the 80s and
  lows falling into the 60s

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Currently, a weak trough is situated over the Northern Rockies and
Northern High Plains. A ridge is building in from the south over the
region with the ridge axis extending over the forecast area. At the
surface, a lee low pressure has developed over southeast Colorado
with a surface high developing over Nebraska behind a weak frontal
boundary. Just ahead of this frontal boundary, weak showers with
isolated lightning have been persistent this morning/early afternoon
over central Kansas. Temperatures this afternoon under the building
ridge will top out around 90 degrees for most across the area.

For later this evening into tonight, a Slight Risk for severe storms
is in place for central and south-central Kansas. The low pressure
over southeastern Colorado will lead to easterly/southeasterly flow
across western Kansas. This will support increased moisture and
upslope flow which will aid in storm development during the
afternoon hours across the High Plains. Storms will eventually
congeal into a multicellular MCS that will march east-southeastward
towards central Kansas during the late evening and overnight hours.
Large hail and strong winds will be the main threats across central
Kansas with the wind threat lingering into south-central Kansas.

Then through mid week, the mid/upper level ridge axis will sit just
to our east, keeping western and central Kansas in southwesterly
flow and in the higher probabilities for storm activity. Eastern
Kansas, being more solidly under the ridge, will have an overall
less supportive environment for convection due to synoptic scale
subsidence. By late week, the ridge will shift further east of the
region, returning rain and storm chances to eastern Kansas.
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated over the next several
days. Temperatures through the rest of the week and into the weekend
will remain near normal, with afternoon highs reaching into the
lower to middle 80s and lows falling into 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail overall today with easterly winds.
A small area of light showers will move through KSLN over the
next hour and should be short lived as it moves through. The
challenge is timing of storm chances for the area tonight as
storms are expected to form over the high plains and move
eastward late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Thinking
the leading edge of shower/storm activity will reach KRSL/KGBD
in the 03Z time frame and then impact KHUT/KICT/KSLN by about
05-07Z although confidence is not very high as it could be a
later show than thought.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...SGS