309
FXUS63 KICT 251142
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
642 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms with heavy rainfall potential will continue early
this morning, and again for the afternoon and evening hours.

- Dangerous heat returns Sunday and continues through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Numerous storms continue this morning from western OK through
south central KS and into northeast KS. This is generally along
a weak stationary boundary with low level jet maintaining
moisture transport into the area. In addition, regional 88Ds
show what looks to be an MCV lifting across the TX Panhandle and
moving into northwest OK. PW`s remain over 2" which is around
150% of normal for this time of year. This is resulting in very
high rainfall rates and associated flooding with the stronger
storms.

We should see an overall decrease in coverage trend as the morning
hours progress as low level jet and associated moisture
transport decreases. However, confidence is increasing in an
uptick in storms late this afternoon into the early evening
mainly associated with the MCV. Just like Thu, very high
instability will be in place this afternoon with CAPE values
around 3,000J/kg. In addition, deep layer shear will be higher
than it was Thu, which may lead to better storm organization and
slightly higher severe chances. The high PW airmass will also
remain in place which will once again bring very high rainfall
rates and potential flooding. Will go ahead and leave the flood
watch in place and wouldn`t be surprised if the day shift ends
up extending it out in time.

By Sat morning, the better storm chances will start to shift east as
the MCV lifts across the Missouri Valley.  For Sat night into Sun,
upper ridging, that is currently over the Southeast CONUS, will
start to build west across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southern Plains. This will shut rainfall chances off and bring a
return to above normal temperatures. For Sun-Tue we will be looking
for highs generally in the 95-100 degree range with heat indices
around 105 for much of the area. There is some model agreement
between the GFS and ECMWF in some upper energy tracking over the
Northern/Central Plains and helping to break the upper ridge
down, allowing some slightly cooler air for the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Main aviation concern will be storms through the early evening
hours.

Scattered showers and storms remain in place across much of the
area, but have started to decrease in intensity. Ran with a
tempo for a few hours this morning with the thinking that we
will see some redevelopment later this afternoon and early
evening. The main threat this morning will continue to be brief
heavy rain that may reduce visibility some. Stronger storms will
be possible this afternoon and early evening with some strong
downburst winds and small hail possible. Areas along and
especially northwest of the KS Turnpike will have the best
chance to see storms this afternoon and evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ048>053-067>070-082-
083.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL