032
FXUS63 KICT 161134
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
534 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued above normal temperatures through much of the upcoming
  week

- Most dry conditions are expected into early next week; rain
  and thunderstorm chances return for the latter portions of
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

As of 3 AM Sunday morning, an area of surface high pressure
continues to progress into central and eastern KS. Light winds
and mostly clear skies are accompanying its arrival. Overnight
lows will range from the low to mid 40s. The area of high
pressure will slide east of the area this afternoon, allowing
southerly flow to return with high temperatures topping out in
the mid 60s to near 70. The prospects for a few rain showers
late tonight into Monday continue to decrease (now less than
10%). This is predominately tied to meager available moisture
with PW values near 0.5" and the strongest low-level WAA and
midlevel height falls remaining across northern KS into NE and
IA. Patchy drizzle cannot be entirely ruled out across
southeast KS late Monday night as low-level moisture increases
and deepens. The NAM is certainly the most aggressive but these
potential is reflected in the NBM visibility probabilities
(latest NBM probability for visibilities less than 5 miles stand
at 20-30%).

Transitioning into the mid and latter portions of next week,
widespread rain and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday
through Friday as a slow moving midlevel trough advances from the
southwest US. Latest GFS and ECMWF runs suggest strong low-level WAA
will ensue late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with dew
points approaching 60. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen with the
approaching southwest US trough. Uncertainty remains with the depth
of low-level moisture and whether capping can be eroded for
upwards of 1000 J/kg of elevated instability. These trends will
need to be monitored over the coming days as the background
shear profiles would support a severe storm potential. Strong
midlevel height falls will overspread the central Plains
Thursday into Thursday night, resulting in widespread rainfall,
especially across south-central and southeast KS. Additional
deformation precipitation is possible Friday into Friday night
as the midlevel level trough slowly progresses into the MS
valley. Temperatures will return to near-normal late next week
with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and
variable winds will become east to southeasterly at 10-15 kt by
mid-morning. MVFR CIGS are possible late tonight into Monday
morning at all sites but confidence remains too low for
introduction at this time. For this issuance, the most likely
time of arrival for MVFR CIGS was introduced as a FEW group.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF