973
FXUS63 KICT 081125
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
625 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and flooding ongoing across far southeast Kansas
  this morning.

- Potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and
  evening across much of the area.

- Much warmer conditions and low storm chances anticipated for
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Thursday through Sunday appears to be quite active for the
  region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

     THIS MORNING...

The sharp, shortwave trough that brought active weather to the
region this weekend is slowly departing the region this morning, and
mid/upper ridging is beginning to build up over the southern CONUS.
However, the side effect of this building ridge is a fairly stout
region of mid-level WAA overspreading southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma and nosing into southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. As
a result, robust thunderstorm development has taken place across far
southeast Kansas and surrounding areas. With PWATs over 1.7 inches
and the expectation for training thunderstorms, very heavy rainfall
and localized flooding are likely across this area. Additionally,
MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg and effective shear around 30 knots could
support strong to marginally severe storms capable of quarter size
hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. SPC mesoanalysis suggests this
activity may have the opportunity to become surface-based due to
very limited capping. Should this pan out, increasing 0-3km shear
may support an outside chance of a tornado or two this morning. The
big caveat to any severe potential will be a very messy storm mode
which will likely keep a lid on storm intensity for the most part.
These storms will linger through much of the morning hours across
southeast Kansas. It`s not out of the realm of possibility that some
locations could see several inches of rain before storms eventually
move off to the east.

     THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Later today, a weak surface low is forecast to be located over the
OK/TX Panhandles into southwest Kansas with a warm front draped from
northwest to southeast across Kansas. This warm front could possibly
be slightly reinforced with outflow from the complex of storms
across southeast Kansas this morning. Regardless, robust
thunderstorm development is anticipated across northwest Kansas
early this afternoon thanks to the arrival of a subtle shortwave
trough along with potent upslope flow advecting deep and rich
moisture into the central/northern High Plains. Assuming storms
develop, the environment would be ripe for severe storms with robust
instability around 4000 J/kg and effective shear around 30-40 knots.
The orientation of the baroclinic zone and shear vectors is a little
awkward, but in general, it does support storm interactions and
mergers with an eventual development of an MCS which will promote
primarily a damaging wind threat. With that being said, some semi-
discrete storms are possible across central Kansas which would open
the door to large hail and maybe a tornado or two. The
aforementioned warm front laid out across the state will delineate
the instability gradient, and wherever this ends up being this
afternoon and evening be where the MCS tracks across the state.
Currently, short range guidance has the MCS tracking across central
Kansas into the Flint Hills and eventually southeast Kansas by late
tonight. There`s some fairly high uncertainty about whether or not
the MCS will track into south-central Kansas (thus impacting the
Wichita metro). Trends in the eventual track of the MCS will need to
be monitored throughout the day.

In addition to the potential of severe storms this afternoon through
tonight, much warmer temperatures are expected for this afternoon,
especially across south-central Kansas. Afternoon temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s along with dewpoints around 70 will support
heat indices around 105 this afternoon.

     TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

Much hotter temperatures are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
across the central plains as the previously mentioned mid/upper
ridge builds across the southern plains. Despite continued forecast
warmer mid-level temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, trends in the
short term guidance have hinted that these mid-level temperatures
may not be as warm as previously indicated. Given robust surface
heating each afternoon along with the continued presence of fairly
good low level moisture, the opportunity for storms appears to be
present both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. For Tuesday, it
appears as through a subtle shortwave trough will move into the High
Plains right around peak diurnal heating which will be just enough
to trigger widely scattered showers and storms across western
Kansas. This activity looks like it will barely make it into
portions of central Kansas Tuesday evening. If it does hold
together, there is the potential for gusty winds as this activity
dissipates. A weak frontal boundary will sag into the region on
Wednesday as a more potential trough traverses the northern plains.
The better synoptic lift will be located over the Upper Midwest and
into the Missouri River Valley. However, there is an outside chance
that convergence along the frontal boundary could be enough to
trigger a storm or two across portions of central or south-central
Kansas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Should a storm develop, the
environment would support severe weather given ample instability and
shear for this time of year.

With a series of deep layer troughs set to parade over the central
and northern plains from the end of the work week and into the
weekend, both a moderation in temperatures and an active few days
are currently forecast. There are still a number of details to work
out over the coming days, but the possibility of strong to severe
storms does exist Thursday through Sunday. Continue to monitor the
forecast over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Another potentially active day is possible across the area
today into tonight.

Around 12Z this morning, numerous showers and storms continued
to fester across far southeast Kansas, and KCNU could see
another hour or two of at least vicinity thunder. This activity
will gradually shift south and east, and it should be out of
the area by 15-16Z this morning. Meanwhile, widespread IFR to
MVFR ceilings were overspreading the rest of the area this
morning. Ceilings should gradually improve over the next few
hours, and VFR conditions should resume area-wide by 18Z.

Confidence in the forecast for this afternoon through tonight
remains fairly low. Short term guidance continues to show the
potential of a robust line of storms developing across northwest
Kansas and pushing across central Kansas and the Flint Hills
this evening into tonight. Should this occur, there is the
potential of 50 to 60-knot gusts across portions of central
Kansas this evening. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast
throughout the day.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ067-068-082-083-091>093.
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ095-096-
098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC