289
FXUS63 KICT 181121
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
521 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued above normal temperatures through much of the next 7
  days

- Patchy fog possible this morning and again Wednesday morning

- Shower and thunderstorm chances arrive late Wednesday night
  into (30-60%) Thursday morning; widespread showers (80-90%)
  Thursday into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

As of 3 AM Tuesday morning, a compact midlevel shortwave trough was
advancing across eastern NE. An axis of low-level WAA extends from
northern IA into IL with a secondary axis across southwest MO. Dry
conditions are expected for the remainder of today with the WAA axis
remaining east of the forecast area. At the surface, an attendant
surface trough axis extends from eastern NE through south-central
KS. A wind shift from the northwest is evident behind the trough
axis with temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s. This trough axis
will slide through the remainder of the area through the morning
hours. Ahead of the trough axis, light winds and small dew point
depressions were contributing to patchy fog development across the
Flint Hills.

Transitioning into today and tonight, the aforementioned
surface trough will exit the area to the southeast with surface
ridging sliding into the area. Light winds and small dew point
depressions may result in patchy fog formation once again late
tonight into Wednesday morning. The surface ridge will quickly
side east through the day Wednesday as lee troughing develops
across the high Plains with the approach of a southwest US
midlevel trough. The initial impacts from this midlevel trough
will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as
strong WAA overspreads portions of south-central and southeast
KS. In addition, a steep midlevel lapse rate plume will
overspread the Plains with the approach of the midlevel trough.
Latest mid-range deterministic and CAM guidance are suggesting
strong WAA will extend through 850 mb, especially along and
southeast of the KS Turnpike. This results in the erosion of
most, if not all, inhibition for elevated instability. MUCAPE
up to 1500 J/kg would become realized should this scenario
emerge. In addition, hodographs within this elevated environment
reveal both veering and acceleration of the wind profile,
producing upwards of 30-40 kt of effective shear. All of that to
say, large hail would become a possibility in this scenario.
Moisture depth trends will need to be monitored over the coming
days to reevaluate the strong/severe storm potential.

Strong midlevel height falls will overspread the central Plains
Thursday into Thursday night, resulting in widespread rainfall,
especially across south-central and southeast KS. Additional
deformation precipitation is likely Friday into Friday evening as
the midlevel level trough slowly progresses into the MS valley.
Midlevel ridging will slide into the central/southern Plains
throughout the weekend with mostly sunny skies and seasonable
temperatures in the 50s to near 60 expected. Another strong midlevel
trough will begin its approach the central Plains by late weekend
into early next week. Shower chances will once again increase with
its approach. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Patchy fog will continue across southeast KS through 14Z and may
briefly impact CNU with MVFR VSBY. A cold front is making its
way through the area, shifting winds from the northwest at 10-15
kt. Winds will go light and variable by 01Z. Additional patchy
fog is possible, especially across central KS but confidence is
too low for inclusion at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF