498
FXUS63 KICT 232333
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
533 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through Sunday.

- A cold front will move through Monday evening and will provide
  below normal temperatures through next week.

- Low probabilities (15-20 percent) for light precipitation will
  arrive late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Low amplitude mid/upper level ridging extended from the Southern
Rockies north and eastward across the Great Plains today bringing
dry and mild weather conditions to the area. This pattern has
resulted in above normal temperatures and dry conditions which are
expected to prevail through Sunday with highs in the 60s.
Considerable cirrus may overspread the area at times but is expected
to have a limited impact on temperatures. A tightening pressure
gradient will allow breezy southeast winds to develop this
afternoon. Low level mass convergence and subtle moisture advection
should also allow dewpoint temperatures to trend upward late today
into the evening hours. As the prefrontal trough axis builds into
central KS toward Sunday morning, we could see some patchy fog
develop as winds drop off but this should be short-lived and perhaps
more expansive into southern and eastern Nebraska. Another mild day
is expected on Sunday with highs climbing well into the 60s. Normal
highs for late November are in the low to mid 50s.

Mon-Tue...A shortwave trough sweeping across the Northern Plains on
Sunday will drive a cold front southward across the Central Plains
Sunday night. Fairly robust H85 cold air advection is progged across
the region on Monday likely keeping temperatures below climate
normals for late November. Afternoon high temperatures may struggle
to climb out of the lower 40s for many areas (lowest values in
central KS). A progressive zonal flow regime will allow southerly
flow to quickly return to the region on Tue allowing temperatures to
moderate while remaining below normal for late November.

Wed...A shortwave trough is progged to move into the Rockies late
Wednesday. Ahead of this feature, a transient area of mid-lvl
frontogenesis will overspread the region late Wed afternoon into
Wednesday evening in the wake of a cold front within a brief period
of large-scale forcing for ascent. This is expected to result in a
slight chance of rain developing and as temperatures approach 3 C
toward the end of the light precipitation on Wednesday evening we
could see a brief transition to snow or a few flakes with little or
no impacts anticipated. Minimal impacts are expected due to the
following: 1) transient nature of the event 2) expected light
precipitation and 3) marginal temperature regime.

Thu-Sat...a dry post-frontal regime will become more deeply
entrenched across the area on Thanksgiving Day with highs only
reaching the lower 40s for many areas. Some locations in central KS
may struggle to reach 40. A larger-scale mid/upper trough will
remain in place over the central and eastern CONUS keeping below
normal temperatures in place through the end of the week and into
the beginning of next weekend. Dry conditions are expected to
prevail late in the week into the beginning of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

A strong low level jet will result in low level wind shear
overnight across central and southeast Kansas. As surface low
pressure and the associated trof approaches the higher terrain
of central Kansas (ie. KRSL/KGBD) toward dawn, winds will
become lighter with some patchy low clouds and fog possible
and have shown a SCT stratus deck with period of MVFR/IFR
vsbys. Otherwise VFR expected the rest of the area with a wind
shift from southwest to northwest behind the trof and cold
frontal passage.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KED