725
FXUS63 KICT 040532
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding with flash flooding likely to continue this evening
and into the overnight hours, especially for areas along and southeast
of the KS Turnpike.

- Strong and severe storms also possible this evening east of KS
Turnpike.

- Storms return to the forecast Wednesday night and especially
Thursday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Currently have shortwave energy lifting across north central/northeast
KS with some additional energy diving southeast across the Northern
Rockies. Last but not least, there is an upper impulse approaching
northern Baja. At the surface, cold front extends generally along the
KS Turnpike and is continuing to push east.

There has been very persistent 925-850mb moisture transport into the
front this afternoon and has resulted in showers and storms to keep
regenerating along and even just behind the front.  With PW values
around 175% of normal, storms have been producing extremely high rainfall
rates on the order of 2 or more per hour. In addition, we have had a
few storms produce nickel to quarter size hail with gusty winds. Would
expect these threats to remain with the stronger storms this evening.
Along with flash flooding, it will also be likely a few rivers will
eventually get into flood.

Broad upper troughing will encompass the central and western CONUS by
late Wed morning with upper impulse approaching the Desert Southwest.
Weak surface high pressure will briefly settle over the Plains Wed and
will finally allow for dry conditions.  However, this will be short-lived
as the southwest CONUS impulse moves into Western KS. Some showers and
storms will be possible with this feature Wed night into Thu morning.
However, with the better instability south of the forecast area, not
expecting any strong or severe storms with this activity.

Upper troughing will extend from the Northern Rockies into the Great
Basin on Thu, with surface low pressure strengthening over Eastern NM.
This will allow rich moisture to stream north across the Southern Plains
Thu.  It appears the best chance for daytime convection on Thu will be
generally southwest of the forecast area, over the TX/OK Panhandles.
However, storms are expected to quickly expand/develop Thu evening over
southern KS as low level jet ramps-up.  Right now it looks like southern
KS would have the better storm chances with severe storms possible.

Upper pattern will flatten out for Fri and become more northwest for
the weekend. It looks like the better chances for storms Sat night
into Sun morning would be over western KS, with some of this possibly
affecting areas west of I-135.   By Sun evening, deep upper low will be
over the Western Great Lakes region with northwest flow aloft over the
northern/central Plains. This setup should allow for mostly dry conditions
and temps near or a few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

IFR to MVFR cigs continue across portions of south-central and southeast
Kansas early this morning, but these low clouds should slowly push off to
the south and east through the morning hours. Additionally some lingering
showers are possible over the next couple of hours across southeast Kansas.
By 15Z, most locations should experience VFR conditions. By late tonight,
the development of additional low clouds is possible across portions of the
area, but timing looks to be after the TAF period.

Breezy northerly winds are occurring now, and should last over the next
couple of hours across portions of south-central Kansas and the Flint
Hills. However, winds should decrease later this morning. Winds are
expected to remain fairly light and out of the north and east
through the remainder of the TAF period.&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...TOP