Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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711 FXUS63 KICT 081743 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rainfall through much of today and tonight. An additional 1-2 inches of rain possible. Flooding possible in low- lying areas, but overall impacts are expected to be minimal. - Beginning on Saturday, dry conditions with near normal temperatures for this time of year are expected to dominate the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... As of early this morning, a powerful, deep layer trough is lumbering eastward across the southern Rockies. Ahead of this system, a large area of deep moisture and synoptic lift is leading to widespread rain across much of western Oklahoma and southern and central Kansas this morning. Widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected to continue for much of the day across much of the forecast area as the deep-layer trough progresses very slowly eastward. Rainfall is expected to come in waves and will not necessarily be constant throughout the day, especially for locations along and east of the Flint Hills. The heaviest band of rainfall is likely to arrive later tonight, and embedded thunderstorms are expected to accompany it as it progresses from southwest to northeast. This activity will be ahead of a punch of dry air which will serve to end rain chances from southwest to northeast overnight tonight into early Saturday morning. All in all, an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected from now through Saturday morning with heavier totals occurring across south-central Kansas. While some locations could see flooding in low-lying areas, widespread flooding, or any kind of flash flooding, appears unlikely as rainfall rates should remain below a quarter-inch per hour through most of the event. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK... As rainfall exits the area during the morning hours on Saturday, dry and cool air will begin to dominate much of the region. Afternoon temperatures during the weekend will generally reside in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and overnight temperatures will generally be in mid 30s to mid 40s. The next deep layer trough enters the western CONUS on Monday and eventually pushes into the central plains either late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. Ahead of this system, temperatures are expected to remain seasonably mild. Due to the progressive nature of this system, deep moisture will fail to move northward on time. Therefore, even with ideal synoptic lift in place ahead of a pacific front, little to no rainfall is expected as this system quickly passes through the area on Wednesday. Still, low rain chances are kept in the forecast for areas east of the Flint Hills on Wednesday. Temperatures through much of next week are expected to remain near normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Deteriorating conditions with prevailing IFR/MVFR conditions developing with lowest cigs expected west of a KSLN-KICT line this evening thru early tonight. Numerous to at times widespread rain with embedded thunder expected as the vigorous low pressure lifts northeast across the central Plains. Increasing easterly component flow will gradually veer more from a southerly component by early Saturday morning. Marked improvement is expected to VFR behind the occluded front on Saturday morning. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...KED