582
FXUS63 KICT 052343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
543 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog likely tonight into Thursday morning.

- Below normal temps starting Sunday and continuing through most of
  next week.

- Thirty to fifty percent chance of snow early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Upper level pattern will remain progressive through next week with a
series of impulses moving across the CONUS. Stratus has
remained over central and eastern Kansas today and as
temperatures begin to cool this evening widespread fog
development is likely. Surface temperatures may drop below
freezing across central Kansas late tonight so a few slick spots
may be possible from freezing fog. A surface cold front will
slowly move south through the region late tonight into early
tomorrow morning which will bring drier air into the region so
current thinking is that fog should dissipate from northwest to
southeast through the early morning hours. Even though a cold
front will go through the region with sunny skies temperatures
will be warmer than today as temperatures rebound into the mid
40s across central Kansas into the mid 50s across southeast
Kansas. Pattern won`t change until Saturday as a shortwave moves
across the Central Plains bringing another cold front into the
forecast area. The timing of this front will have impacts on
temperatures for Saturday and Saturday night and have currently
trended toward the cooler side of guidance expecting a faster
frontal timing than NBM guidance depicts.

This front will bring a return of below normal temperatures to the
region and additional reinforcing shots of cold air are expected
through next week keeping us below average. There will also be more
broad troughing developing across the Western CONUS which will
switch our upper air pattern to more southwesterly and allow some
additional moisture to stream towards the Central Plains. With
several perturbations moving through there will be a few chances at
seeing some accumulating snowfall next week so stay tuned for
updates to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

LIFR to VLIFR conditions are expected to return to all sites
throughout the evening as low CIGS and fog redevelop. A cold
front will move across the sites late tonight into Thursday
morning, ushering in northerly winds and drier air. This will
scatter all fog and CIGS from northwest to southeast. Expect VFR
conditions to return at RSL/SLN/GBD in the 11-12Z timeframe and
in the 13-14Z timeframe at HUT/ICT. CNU will be slightly delayed
until 14Z. Northerly wind gusts between 20-25 kt are expected
during the morning hours before gusts subside during the early
afternoon hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday
for KSZ033-048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...BRF