764
FXUS63 KICT 081206
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
606 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall through much of today and tonight. An
additional 1-2 inches of rain possible. Flooding possible in low-
lying areas, but overall impacts are expected to be minimal.

- Beginning on Saturday, dry conditions with near normal
temperatures for this time of year are expected to dominate the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... As of early this morning, a
powerful, deep layer trough is lumbering eastward across the
southern Rockies. Ahead of this system, a large area of deep
moisture and synoptic lift is leading to widespread rain across
much of western Oklahoma and southern and central Kansas this
morning. Widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected to
continue for much of the day across much of the forecast area as
the deep-layer trough progresses very slowly eastward. Rainfall
is expected to come in waves and will not necessarily be
constant throughout the day, especially for locations along and
east of the Flint Hills. The heaviest band of rainfall is
likely to arrive later tonight, and embedded thunderstorms are
expected to accompany it as it progresses from southwest to
northeast. This activity will be ahead of a punch of dry air
which will serve to end rain chances from southwest to northeast
overnight tonight into early Saturday morning. All in all, an
additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected from now
through Saturday morning with heavier totals occurring across
south-central Kansas. While some locations could see flooding in
low-lying areas, widespread flooding, or any kind of flash
flooding, appears unlikely as rainfall rates should remain
below a quarter-inch per hour through most of the event.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK... As rainfall exits
the area during the morning hours on Saturday, dry and cool air will
begin to dominate much of the region. Afternoon temperatures during
the weekend will generally reside in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and
overnight temperatures will generally be in mid 30s to mid 40s. The
next deep layer trough enters the western CONUS on Monday and
eventually pushes into the central plains either late Tuesday night
or early Wednesday morning. Ahead of this system, temperatures are
expected to remain seasonably mild. Due to the progressive nature of
this system, deep moisture will fail to move northward on time.
Therefore, even with ideal synoptic lift in place ahead of a pacific
front, little to no rainfall is expected as this system quickly
passes through the area on Wednesday. Still, low rain chances are
kept in the forecast for areas east of the Flint Hills on Wednesday.
Temperatures through much of next week are expected to remain near
normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Showers persist across all but eastern Kansas. This activity is
expected to continue for much of the day. While there could be
breaks in precipitation, confidence is not as high as it was
previously for a morning break given the current radar returns.
Conditions will degrade starting in the afternoon through the
evening hours as a low pressure system pushes to the northeast
dropping to MVFR and IFR. This is the same time when heavier
rainfall is anticipated with a shift to the east as well. Isolated
embedded thunderstorms could occur during the latter part of
the afternoon into the evening; however, there is not enough
confidence in the coverage to indicate any thunder mention at
this time. Drier air will move in near the end of the period as
the system slides further northeast to improve ceilings and
push the precipitation out.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...VJP