104
FXUS63 KICT 041733
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1233 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild through Saturday; rain chances return Sunday night
  into early next week

- Below normal temperatures arrive early next week; warming
  trend late next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

As of 230 AM Saturday morning, an expansive midlevel ridge remains
across the eastern half of the CONUS with a deep, trough across the
western states. This pattern continues to produce cyclonic midlevel
flow across the High Plains with a deepening surface trough from the
northern Plains through the central High Plains. An initial
shortwave trough, currently across southern NV, will advance across
the central Rockies later today. This will further strengthen the
surface pressure gradient and the low-level wind profile. Latest
short term guidance has shifted the strongest low-level wind
profile slightly further west this afternoon with the strongest
profiles across northwest KS. That being said, a 45-50 mph LLJ
remains across portions of central KS and as boundary layer
mixing deepens by mid-morning, wind gusts in excess of 40 mph
are possible through midday. As the LLJ weakens/shifts westward
as the day progresses, wind gusts should decrease to 25-35 mph
throughout the afternoon. Again, the strongest gusts will remain
across the central KS. The LLJ will once again strengthen
across central/western KS tonight with speeds between 50-60
mph. Minimal boundary layer decoupling is expected, especially
across central KS, and may allow for surface wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph overnight.

By Sunday, the surface trough axis will extend from southwest KS
into north central KS. A few thunderstorms are appearing likely
Sunday afternoon and evening along the front across portions of
central KS as surface convergence and midlevel divergence increases
across the frontal zone. ECMWF and GFS forecast soundings reveal
modest lapse rate profiles (7-8 C/km) with veering and acceleration
of the vertical wind profile (30-40 kt of effective shear). As such,
a strong or severe storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon and
evening.

The frontal zone will slowly move across the forecast area Monday
into Tuesday, setting the stage for additional shower and
thunderstorm chances (30-50%). Temperatures behind the front will be
much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. Surface ridging will
settle into the area by mid-week with seasonable temperatures and
light winds. Midlevel ridging will build across the central/southern
Plains for the second half of the week, which will likely result in
a warming trends with temperatures nearing 80 degrees once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. The main
concern to aviation is strong southerly winds. The strongest
gusts will be up to 35 kts in central KS with gusts around 30
kts in south-central KS. These gusts will persist overnight
except at CNU where winds will drop to around 10 kts after
sunset. There is a potential for LLWS after 03z, but given the
persistence of strong surface winds, did not include in this
issuance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...GC