893
FXUS63 KICT 262009
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
309 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance for isolated severe storm over central Kansas Sunday
evening

- Severe storms are possible for late Monday afternoon and Monday
night

- More rounds of showers and storms expected for Tuesday-
  Wednesday night along with a risk for heavy rainfall and
  possible flooding, especially across southeast Kansas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Tonight - Sunday:

Latest satellite water vapor imagery shows a robust upper level low
pressure system off the coastline of California. Also of note is a
very rich Gulf moisture airmass(surface dewpoints mid to upper 60s)
residing just south of Oklahoma border along a stalled out frontal
boundary. This boundary will begin to lift northward as a warm front
for tonight through Sunday. Numerous rain showers with a few
embedded storms currently over the area will continue and shift
slowly eastward for tonight into Sunday morning. Meanwhile ample low
level isentropic lift of the advancing rich moisture/warm front
should generate areas of drizzle for locations west of the rain
showers for tonight through the morning hours on Sunday. The low
clouds could be rather stubborn to dissolve across the area for much
of the day on Sunday. The upper low is expected to move east very
slowly across the Rockies for Sunday into Wednesday night with a
series of embedded shortwaves ejecting out into the central plains
during this period. The first shortwave looks to eject out over
eastern Colorado/western Kansas late Sunday afternoon/evening. This
should ignite a few supercells over western Nebraska southward into
western Kansas along the dry line in the afternoon/evening given the
high instability/favorable wind shear profiles. Any of this activity
looks to stay just west of central Kansas for Sunday/Sunday night
where the dry-line is expected to reside, however if a supercell was
to develop further south in western Kansas storm motion could bring
it closer to central Kansas.

Monday-Monday Night:

The next shortwave that ejects from the Rockies on Monday will be
stronger than Sunday`s wave and it is expected to race northeast
from Colorado into Minnesota. The airmass east of the dry-line will
remain very unstable on Monday afternoon/evening due the very rich
Gulf moisture continuing to stream northward. The combination of a
very unstable airmass and favorable wind shear parameters supports
supercell development with all higher end hazards possible. The key
things to watch for possible supercell initiation will be
magnitude of low level convergence along the dry line and if
cooling in the mid-levels associated with the shortwave
spreading over central Kansas is enough. If storms don`t
develop along the dry-line the more likely scenario is when the
southward advancing cold front catches up and collides with the
retreating dry-line Monday night. This collision should allow
storms to zipper down the boundary and become more numerous with
the storm mode changing to a linear mode.

Tuesday-Friday:

The main upper trough axis looks to finally migrate slowly northeast
from the southwestern states on Tuesday and reach eastern Kansas by
late Wednesday night. This slow northeast migration of the upper
trough will cause the surface frontal boundary to slow down/stall
over the area along with a retrograding upper level jet entrance
region. This combined with above normal precipitable water values
and enhanced moisture transport into the stalled out boundary
supports a prolonged period of heavy rainfall. All the signals are
there for a heavy rainfall/flooding event to occur in the region,
however there is lots of uncertainly with the models on where these
signals will become aligned. At this time, the better chances for
any flooding impacts from the heavy rainfall are favoring southeast
Kansas and locations further southeast. We will continue to monitor
model trends for any shifts of the expected heavy rainfall axis. A
drying out period looks to follow in the wake of the Wednesday night
system as upper level pattern transitions to a northwest flow regime
with drier low level air overspreading Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm will continue to
gradually shift east through the afternoon. As moisture
increases from the south tonight, conditions should drop to IFR
and ever LIFR with drizzle. The timing was shifted later for
this occurrence based on the latest guidance, but this may need
to be adjusted with upcoming issuances. Drizzle and reduced
visibility should improve around 15Z as the south southeast
winds increase, but the lower clouds may be slower to get back
to MVFR then VFR.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...VJP