764
FXUS63 KICT 032343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms this evening with the higher chances over
  west/central Kansas. Slightly better shower/storm coverage for
  Thursday across most of the area. Main threats will be gusty
  winds and brief heavy rain.

- The most widespread shower and storm chances will be for
  Saturday night through Sunday and will affect most of central
  and eastern Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Water vapor imagery along with 88D mosaic shows an upper circulation
over the western OK Panhandle. Meanwhile, a broad area of upper
ridging stretches from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the
Ohio Valley.

We should see an uptick in convection across western KS late this
afternoon as the upper impulse continues lifting northeast. Across
our forecast area, airmass remains uncapped with plenty of
instability. Lack of focus will make it difficult to pin point areas
with better chances and like last evening, feel that most of the
activity will be focused along outflow from decaying showers/storms.
For this evening through the overnight hours, feel that the better
shower/storm chances will be tied to the upper impulse as it lifts
across western and north central KS. We may see an increase in
shower and storm coverage on Thu as we remain in an area of
increased 850-700mb moisture transport with PW values around 175% of
normal. However, still feel the most widespread area of convection
on Thu will be over northeast KS, which will be closer to better
upper support.

While we may see some scattered shower/storm activity across eastern
KS Fri morning, there should be an overall decrease in activity for
Fri afternoon and evening with the higher precip chances across the
Southern Plains as a series of weak upper perturbations slide across
the area. There remains good agreement with medium range models
tracking a southern stream upper impulse out of Mex and into the
Southern Plains by Sat afternoon. This feature is then expected to
move into west/central KS by Sun morning. The ECMWF is slightly
further west with this impulse compared to the GFS, but regardless
of which one verifies, the Sat night-Sun evening time frame looks
pretty wet, and with PW values remaining unseasonably high, some
areas of heavy rain will be possible. Showers and storms are then
expected to decrease in coverage for the start of the work week as
the upper impulse continues to lift off to the northeast.

Still looking for seasonal temps through the majority of this
forecast with a slight warm-up staring at the beginning of next
week

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Widely scattered diurnally driven showers will continue to
slowly dissipate early this afternoon. Another more organized
area of showers and thunderstorms was moving east/northeast
into parts of south central Kansas early this evening. This
activity is expected to dissipate as it approaches the Hwy 14
corridor but some more isolated shower activity could fester
into the overnight hours. Breezy southeast winds will gradually
subside before picking up again tomorrow morning. We may see
showers and storms develop within a moist airmass by late
morning into the mid afternoon hours on Wed with breezy
southeast winds. Some MVFR cigs may develop under the shower and
storm activity with some transient MVFR cigs during the morning
hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM