992
FXUS63 KICT 081138
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures starting today with dangerous heat
  likely for Sunday through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures arriving by Thursday, along with increased
  storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Currently have strong upper ridging centered over the Four
Corners region with upper troughing from Ontario down through
the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, there is a stationary front
near or just south of the KS/NE border with high pressure from
the Mississippi Valley through the Southeast CONUS.

Upper ridging will continue to expand into the Southern Plains
today as the surface high also slides east. This will allow the
front to lift north and start to wash out. There will be a
slight chance for a few storms to develop late this afternoon
over northwest KS along an area of surface convergence which
will be in a highly mixed airmass. If storms do develop, they
would mainly affect a few counties in central KS after 00z Sun.

Confidence is high in above normal temps area wide today with a
few locations west of I-135 reaching 100. How much we mix today
will determine how extreme heat indices get today. Currently
have a lean to the drier more mixed solution for locations along
and especially west of I-135, which would result in heat index
values near or a couple degrees higher than temps. Hotter
temperatures are still likely for Sunday and will continue
through Wednesday. Through this period highs will generally be
in the 98-104 degree range, with the higher temps over southern
and central KS. Models continue the trend of mixing dewpoints
over western portions of our forecast area into the 50s each
afternoon, which will keep heat indices from getting too
extreme. However, even with a drier airmass in place, heat
indices will still be in the 102-107 range for 3-4 days, so a
heat headline may still be needed.

For Wed into Thu the upper pattern will undergo a change, with
one piece of energy tracking southeast out of British Columbia
with another impulse sliding southeast out of MB. This will
allow a cold front to move into the area for Wed night into Thu
and will bring cooler readings and increased storm chances. The
GFS pushes the front through faster compared to the ECMWF, so
confidence in the exact timing of the front is not that high at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Aviation concerns will remain on the low side through the next
24 hours.

Surface high pressure will slowly shift east today and will
allow southeast winds to turn more southerly and increase as the
day continues. By late this afternoon we are expecting some
gusts in the 20-25kt range, with the higher gusts along and west
of I-135. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will continue
through this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL