051
FXUS63 KICT 112318
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
618 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures for Tuesday and again Thursday,
  with many locations seeing highs in the 90s.

- Chance for a few storms early Tue evening across the Flint
  Hills into southeast KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Currently have an upper trough stretching from Quebec down through
the Great Lakes region and into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, water
vapor imagery shows a compact upper impulse tracking across the
Arklatex region. Over the western CONUS, upper ridging is in place
from the Desert Southwest into the Central Rockies with some
shortwave energy emerging out of the Northern Rockies.

The energy over the Northern Rockies will continue tracking quickly
east and will move over the Northern Plains tonight and into the
Upper Mississippi Valley by Tue morning. This will allow a cold
front to push south and by 21z Tue will be located generally
northwest of the Kansas Turnpike. Storms are expected to initially
develop along the front over MO into eastern KS and will attempt to
continue developing west into the Flint Hills and southeast KS after
00z. Due to capping issues, not expecting a large number of storms,
with only a few expected. Hail will remain the main threat with
storms given good directional shear.

Upper ridging will slide over the Plains for Wed as the upper trough
departs across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. For Wed night into
Thu, another shortwave is expected to lift out of the Pacific
Northwest and across the Northern Rockies with some weaker pieces of
energy moving out of the Central Rockie and into KS. This setup will
strengthen lee troughing and allow for the Plains to quickly get
back into return flow. While it cannot be ruled out, confidence is
still too low to run with daytime storm chances on Thu, mainly due
to increasing mid level temps and related capping issues. Better
storm chances look to be Thu night over mainly eastern KS into MO.

As far as temps go, we are looking for highs on Tue to be around 10-
15 degrees above normal, with some locations across south central
and central KS getting into the low 90s. After a brief cool down
Wed, we will get back into the heat for Thu, with widespread 90s
likely.

For Fri, some differences in the medium range models start to show
up, with the GFS more agressive in pushing a cold front through
while the ECMWF keeps the front north of the forecast area. On Sat,
there is good agreement that rich low level moisture will be in
place, but warm mid level temps will remain and there isn`t much of
a defined surface boundary around. So confidence in storm development
is again low. Even if a storm would develop across OK or southern KS
on Sat, the better mid/upper winds are well north of the area.
Confidence with temps is much higher this weekend, with above
normal readings likely for both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period.

South winds will continue overnight with sustained speeds in the 12-
16 kt range across central and south central KS. LLWS rooted at 1.4
kft is expected to impact central KS sites after 06Z and dissipate
after 12Z. Otherwise, still looking for a cold front to shift winds
to the north by early afternoon in central KS and mid/late afternoon
across south central KS. Could see a few showers and storms pop up
toward the end of the period along this boundary (especially in
southeast KS), but confidence in timing and location of impacts
remains too low for a mention at CNU at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Very high grassland fire danger is expected Thu afternoon and
again on Sunday afternoon.

Hot temperatures are expected on Thu, with highs in the 90s for
areas along and west of I-135. This will produce afternoon RH
values in the 25-30% range with south winds gusting to 35-40
mph. This combo will elevate the fire danger to very high, for
areas along and west of I-135. The same setup is also
anticipated for Sun afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...BRF