627
FXUS63 KICT 091839
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
139 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms this evening

- Better shower and storm chances arrive tonight, especially
  across south-central KS; a few may produce hail up quarter
  size and wind gusts near 60 mph

- Mostly dry conditions to round out the weekend into next
  week; much warmer temperatures for next week

- Very high fire danger possible Thursday afternoon for areas
  west of Interstate 135

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

As of 115 PM Saturday afternoon, broad west-northwest midlevel
flow was present across the central Plains with a deep trough
across Ontario/Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extends
from near Chicago through northwest KS with a dryline extending
from northwest KS through west TX. Regional radar analysis
continues to reveal widely scattered returns from south-central
NE through south-central KS. These radar returns are being
generated by modest WAA rooted near 700 mb. Despite the radar
returns, a very dry sub-cloud layer has resulted in virga across
central/south-central KS thus far. As the afternoon progresses,
the aforementioned dryline may become a focal point for
isolated thunderstorm development. The area of possible
development is expected to remain generally west of a Russell to
Pratt line. Any storm that does develop will be very high
based, with cloud bases at 10-12 kft. The inverted V
characteristics of the boundary layer would support a downburst
potential with the strongest of storms. Any dryline convection
potential will quickly dissipate with sunset.

Transitioning into late this evening and overnight, a shortwave
trough currently across northwest WY will advance into the central
high Plains. WAA will increase ahead of its passage across portions
western and central KS. This should result in a gradual increase of
midlevel moisture near 700 mb. The approach of the shortwave
trough is forecast to steepen midlevel (700-500 mb) lapse rates
(as steep as 8- 8.5 C/km), especially from west-central KS into
south-central KS. The combination of increasing midlevel
moisture and lapse rates is forecast to yield elevated
instability ranging from 50-100 J/kg from across eastern KS and
up to 1500 J/kg across portions of central to south-central KS
(mainly along and west of a line from Great Bend to Anthony).
Effective shear values of 40-50 kt would support a large hail
around quarter size. DCAPE values are forecast to remain around
1000 J/kg and would support damaging winds around 60 mph. As the
shortwave trough departs the area late Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon, rain chances will diminish.

Midlevel heights will be on the increase early next week as a
southwest US ridge amplifies. This will result in a warming trend
with highs in the 80s and 90s by Tuesday. A midlevel shortwave
trough will translate across the northern Plains Tuesday, shunting a
weak cold front through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stray
shower or storm cannot be entirely ruled out across eastern KS but
widespread precipitation is not expected. Temperatures will remain
in the 80s for Wednesday but quickly return to the 90s for Thursday
through Saturday. Mid to long range guidance continues to suggest a
pattern change towards the end of next week with a western CONUS
trough approaching the central/northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Winds continue southwesterly 8 to 10kt to start the period but will
shift to more southerly through the afternoon. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be the main concern through the evening hours
with chances increasing from west to east across central KS between
22Z and 00Z. Expect brief reductions in vsby and cigs with those
showers and storms along with gusty and erratic winds and possibly
small hail with any stronger storms. Very spotty overall coverage in
showers and storms makes narrowing timing difficult, so have kept
longer PROB30 groups in the TAFs.

Behind the front between 01Z and 06Z, winds will become
northeasterly and remain 8 to 10kts. Shower and very isolated
thunderstorm activity will persist through the morning. Models
indicate a second round of more stratiform type precipitation after
06Z to move through the region, but for central KS terminals (KRSL,
KSLN, and KGBD) embedded thunderstorms will be possible with this
second round. Thus, have included a second PROB30 group to cover
that concern. Overall, chances are 20 to 40% of precipitation at any
given time through the evening and overnight period through around
12Z Sunday. It will gradually begin to clear from north to south
after 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Fire weather concerns are forecast to return Thursday afternoon for
areas generally west of Interstate 135. Gusty south to southwest
winds up to 35 mph will overlap with humidity values in the 15-25%
range. Areas west of Interstate 135 have remained quite dry for the
last several months. In fact, Kansas State Mesonet data reveals many
sites west of Interstate 135/Highway 81 have gone hundreds of days
without 1" or more rainfall reported in a single day. The
longest streak across NWS Wichita`s forecast area is 296
consecutive days at Harper. Hoisington and McPherson aren`t far
behind at 246 and 234 days respectively.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...CFH
FIRE WEATHER...BRF