478
FXUS63 KICT 071136
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms continue across portions of
  central and south-central KS this morning; a stray severe
  storm is possible with large hail the main concern

- Below normal temperatures today and Wednesday; warming trend
  ensues Thursday through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

As of 4 AM Tuesday morning, broad midlevel WAA combined with upper
divergence with the right entrance region of 50 kt 500mb jet
continues to produce widely scattered storms across central and
south-central KS. Meager, yet sufficient, midlevel lapse rates up to
7 C/km have resulted a couple of stronger updrafts, including an
elevated supercell across northeast Kingman County (golfball size
hail produced). This lapse rate plume will remain in place through
the morning hours, therefore additional strong/severe storms remain
possible, especially across south-central KS. Hail up to golf ball
size is the main concern. As the midlevel WAA weakens by midday, the
bulk of shower and storm activity will diminish. Sunny skies will
return to portions of central and south-central KS later this
afternoon. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will top out in the
60s to near 70.

Surface ridging will settle into the area by Wednesday with
seasonable temperatures and light winds. Midlevel ridging will build
across the central/southern Plains for the second half of the week
and upcoming weekend, which will likely result in a warming
trend with temperatures nearing 80 degrees once again. Another
cold front and shot of colder air is appearing possible early
next week, stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

-SHRA/TSRA continues to progress east and southeast across
 south-central KS. Dry conditions have returned at RSL and SLN
 and will do so by 14Z at GBD, HUT, and ICT. -SHRA/TSRA will
 arrive at CNU by 13Z before departing near 15Z. Otherwise, IFR
 to MVFR CIGS will gradually lift across south-central and
 southeast KS through the morning and into the afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF