821
FXUS63 KICT 090013
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
713 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions to continue through the weekend.

- Low storm chances late Saturday night, then better storm
  chances Sunday through early Monday. Lower storm chances
  linger Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

- Moderation in temperatures Sunday through Tuesday, then a warm
  up to end next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

As of early this afternoon, strong upper ridging continues across
the southwestern CONUS. However, this ridge is beginning to flatten
out due to a vigorous trough progressing across the central/northern
Rockies and into the northern plains. At the surface, a tight
pressure gradient across the area continues to promote breezy to
windy conditions. Gusts in some locations have approached or
exceeded 40 mph at times this afternoon. Continued pockets of subtle
mid-level WAA continue are causing some patchy cloud cover, but not
enough to impact temperatures in any meaningful way. Still, can`t
rule out a few isolated sprinkles later this afternoon, mainly across
south-central Kansas. Additionally, the synoptic front that is
forecast to bring some heat relief in a couple of days has finally
made its way into portions of northwest Kansas. With falling heights
from the approaching trough, along with surface convergence from the
frontal boundary, scattered showers and storms are expected to
develop this afternoon and evening across the High Plains. While its
possible some of this activity could sneak into central Kansas late
tonight, much of it should be hampered by very warm mid-level
temperatures overspread across much of the central & eastern
portions of the state.

Breezy conditions will remain through overnight hours tonight and
into Saturday morning which will keep the boundary layer somewhat
mixed, and will help to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. Some
locations along and east of the Turnpike may not see lows below 80
degrees Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, the cold front will
be draped across central Kansas which will leave the door open for
another hot day across south-central and southeast Kansas. A narrow
zone of 100+ degree temperatures is possible Saturday afternoon
aided by compressional warming ahead of the front. One caveat
to Saturday`s temperature forecast will be the potential for
some cloud cover across the area which could hamper max temps a
bit. Better forcing for ascent will be associated with the mid-
level baroclinic zone that will be located along the KS/NE
stateline Saturday evening, and numerous showers and storms will
likely fester across northeast Kansas through the nighttime
hours Saturday night. Additionally, a cluster of storms is
expected to develop across the High Plains and move eastward
Saturday night. Some of this activity could make it into
portions of central Kansas by early Sunday morning, but strong
or severe storms are not expected.

The cold front will continue pushing southward and will be across
portions of south-central and east-central Kansas Sunday afternoon.
With cooler mid-level temperatures, falling heights aloft, and ample
surface convergence along the front, widespread showers and storms
appear increasingly likely across the area late Sunday afternoon
through early Monday morning. Ample instability and sufficient
shear, especially along the frontal boundary, will be enough to
support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds. PWATs around 1.5 to 2 inches will support the likelihood of
heavy rainfall as well which could lead to areas of localized
flooding. Chances for widespread showers and storms will gradually
shift south and east by Monday morning; however additional chances
for isolated showers and storms will continue Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.

Modest upper ridging will build back across the southeast CONUS by
the latter half of next week. The central plains will feel a bit of
its influence with gradually warming temperatures and quiet
conditions returning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

In the near term, there is a thunderstorm near KHYS tracking
east which is expected to impact KRSL in about an hour; this
activity has diminished in the last 30 minutes, so it was
decided to go with VCTS instead of a prevailing and tempo group
to account for potential stronger winds given the environment
for any collapsing storm. There is a possibility that KGBD could
see an isolated storm, but the confidence is less in the impact
therefore a PROB30 was used instead.

As the low level jet increases tonight, this will bring in
another round of low level wind shear around 2k feet for KSLN,
KHUT, KICT and KCNU with the speeds of 40-45kts until around
sunrise if not earlier. Surface winds should decrease this
evening into tonight. As a cold front sags southward, the
directional component will switch to the north to northeast late
tonight into early Saturday for the northern sites while the
southern sites stay out of the south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

With Wichita hitting 100 degrees this afternoon, this is the
latest first 100-degree day since 1928, when the century mark
was hit for the first time that year on August 11.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ069>072-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...VJP
CLIMATE...JC