827
FXUS63 KICT 240825
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms producing high rainfall rates will continue
  today, especially across central KS.

- Shower and storm chances return for Thursday afternoon and
  evening with high rainfall rates and flooding possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper impulse tracking
out of Central CA and slowly moving into the Desert Southwest.
Meanwhile, widespread upper ridging still encompasses all of the
Southeast CONUS. At the surface, stationary front extends from
southeast Nebraska through west-central KS.

Scattered showers and storms continue over west-central KS
early this morning as impressive 850mb moisture transport
has remained nearly stationary for the last several hours.
Stronger showers and storms have produced very high rainfall
rates due to PW values over 2", which is around 175% of normal.
This activity is expected to gradually lift north through the
morning hours, and by around 15z, most of the activity should be
along and north of I-70. Front is expected to wash out as it
lifts north today and the higher PW axis is also forecast to
lift slightly back to the northwest. Airmass will remain very
unstable and uncapped this afternoon, but with the front less
defined, feel that activity will more iso-sct in nature and will
mainly affect central and especially north-central KS. By
tonight, higher 850-700mb moisture transport will shift north,
taking the better storm chances north of the forecast area.

By Wed morning, upper impulse will be tracking over the Four
Corners region and across the Central Rockies Wed night. Latest
model runs have slowed the eastward progression of this feature
compared to previous runs. It is now not expected to move out
across Nebraska/KS until Thu into Thu evening. Confidence is
increasing in another episode of showers and storms producing
high rainfall rates and flooding on Thu. Just like Mon, there
will be an abundance of instability but very little shear to
speak of. In addition, a weak boundary will try and slip into
the area and may provide some low level focus. We will once
again be looking at PW values around 2" which will bring high
rainfall rates. Right now it`s looking like locations along and
east of the KS Turnpike would have the better chances Thu
afternoon/Thu evening.

For Fri into Sat, stronger westerlies aloft will be well north
of the forecast area with an upper high situated over the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Will keep some small pops in for Fri and to
a lesser extent Sat as there is some model agreement in
monsoonal moisture/energy lifting into west/central KS from
NM/TX Panhandle. With lack of surface focus, will be hard to hit
storm chances too hard at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will move slowly
northeast across central/south central Kansas through the
overnight hours. Very heavy rainfall will drop visibilities down
to less than a mile at times. Otherwise mid level clouds will
linger during the day on Tuesday with south winds around 10 to
15kts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ