399
FXUS63 KICT 222014
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
214 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry and relative mild weekend for late November.

- Turning much cooler next week with temperatures below climo.

- Slight/modest rain/mixed precip chances just before Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The gradual moderation/warming trend will continue as we start
the pre-Thanksgiving weekend as the return southerly low level
flow increases under ridging aloft. The strong flow aloft
associated with the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast
will send a lead weak shortwave across the northern Rockies into
the northern Plains by Saturday night with a trailing/stronger
shortwave amplifying an upper trof over the north central conus
by Sunday night/Monday. This will result in the southward move
of a moderately strong cold front with modified Canadian air
advecting across Kansas and the central Plains. The much
cooler/below climo airmass will stay in place thru the mid-week
periods under more zonal, westerly flow aloft. The medium range
model consensus continues to fill and eject the remaining
portion of the upper low/trof off the Pacific Northwest coast
across mid-America Wednesday into Thursday. The transient lift
along the modestly moist baroclinic zone still looks to support
scattered precip chances across central and eastern Kansas on
Wednesday into early Thursday, though amounts look light. That
said, thermal profiles could become marginally supportive of
mixed phase/wintry precip, especially closer to the I-70
corridor. Little, if any, impact to travel is expected, though
it is still several days away. As we move into Friday, an upper
trof looks to amplify over the Great Lakes and eastern conus
keeping temperatures below climo across central and eastern
Kansas.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions expected thru the forecast valid period.
Light southerly flow will develop later this afternoon through
tonight, increasing a bit toward midday on Saturday. Generally
just patchy cirrus through tonight into Saturday morning.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...KED