Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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122 FXUS63 KICT 221703 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1103 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures for today through the weekend. - Cold front to move through Sunday evening into Monday morning providing much colder temps for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Currently have a deep upper low situated over the Mid-Atlantic States with weak upper ridging from the Rockies into the Plains. At the surface, high pressure extends from the eastern Dakotas into eastern Oklahoma with lee troughing in place. Pattern will remain unchanged for today with weak upper ridging remaining over the Plains along with some Lee troughing. Late tonight, some shortwave energy will come onshore over the Pacific Northwest and will help break down the ridging over the Plains on Sat, allowing for increased lee troughing and stronger southerly winds. Upper energy will continue to slowly track east across the Rockies Sat night and into the Northern/Central Plains on Sun. This will allow a cold front to start it`s journey south, eventually moving through the forecast area Sun evening through early Mon morning. Before the front moves through, we are looking at highs a few degrees above normal for today and by Sun will be around 10 degrees above normal with most locations in the 60s. As the shortwave trough swings into the Upper/Mid Mississippi Valley on Mon evening, colder air will continue to spill south across the Plains, with highs in the 40s for Mon-Wed. There is some agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in an upper impulse tracking out of the Great Basin and across the area Wed into Wed night. At the same time, another piece of energy is expected to dive southeast out of South Central Canada and into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. This setup will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air for Thanksgiving. In addition, precip chances will increase for Wed and Wed evening with some potential for a mix of wintry precip. However, at this time, confidence is still low on how much if any of the area will see precip. So hopefully the details become more clear with later forecasts. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1103 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions expected thru the forecast valid period. Light southerly flow will develop later this afternoon through tonight, increasing a bit toward midday on Saturday. Generally just patchy cirrus through tonight into Saturday morning. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...KED