894
FXUS63 KICT 022345
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances return for late tonight into
  Wednesday morning, especially for areas west of I-135.
  Additional storm chances then expected for Thursday
  afternoon/evening for much of the area.

- Severe storm threat will be on the lower side with storms this
  week, with the main threats heavy rain and brief downburst
  winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Currently have an upper low situated over the Northern Rockies with
upper ridging from the Southern Plains into the Mid/Upper
Mississippi Valley.  Large complex of storms slowly migrated out of
western KS early this morning and left a couple MCV`s behind as they
dissipated. One is moving into northeast OK with another one moving
into the Flint Hills. At the surface, stationary front extends from
the Arklatex region to generally along or just south of the Red
River.

Storms are expected this afternoon across eastern KS into
southern MO ahead of the weak MCV. The Flint Hills into
southeast KS maybe affected by a couple of these storms.
Storms are also expected to develop this afternoon across
eastern CO/northeast NM and track slowly northeast this evening.
This will be in an area of upslope flow along with a weak upper
perturbation lifting out of NM. Some of this activity will try
and move into the western flank of our forecast area after 06z
as it dissipates, with some of this lingering into the morning
hours for areas along and west of I-135, much like this morning.

There is good model agreement that storms will redevelop by
late Wed afternoon across mainly western KS as a slightly more
robust upper impulse lifts out of NM and into the TX/OK
Panhandles. With dewpoints approaching 70, there will be plenty
of instability, but very limited shear, along with unseasonably
high PW values. This activity will be diurnally driven and
should see a decreasing trend after sunset as they start to move
into our western counties.

For Thursday, upper impulse will stretch from eastern Nebraska into
the TX Panhandle and will keep at least some afternoon and early
evening storms in the forecast for much of the area. Airmass will
remain unchanged, with high instability, low shear and very high PW
values. As this wave slides east, so will storm chances for Fri,
with areas east of I-135 having the higher chances. There is good
model agreement in a fast moving compact upper impulse tracking out
of the Northern Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Vally Fri night.
This will try and push a weak cold front into the area and will keep
precip chances around for late Fri night into Sat morning. For the
start of the weekend, a southern stream upper wave is forecast to
lift out of northeast Mex and into the Southern Plains by Sat
afternoon and lift across KS on Sun. This will keep at least modest
rainfall chances in through much of the weekend.

As far as temps go, we are looking for daily highs to be near or
slightly above normal through the majority of the forecast with
maxes in the mid and upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A few isolated showers are possible across portions of south-
central and southeast Kansas this evening. An isolated
lightning strike cannot be ruled out, but impacts will be
minimal through 03Z as these showers gradually dissipate.

Then, the focus will turn toward portions of central Kansas
Wednesday morning across central Kansas as a weakening complex
of showers and storms moves in from the west. Gusty winds and
brief heavy rainfall are possible with anything that can make it
into the region; however, coverage of this activity is still
highly in question. Meanwhile, a brief period of MVFR cigs is
possible across all of the area Wednesday morning, mainly
between 10-15Z.

Surface winds remain mainly easterly at around 10-15 knots this
evening, then winds should gradually shift to southerly through
the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning. Southerly winds
during the day on Wednesday should remain around 10-15 knots.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC