998
FXUS63 KICT 061748
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/thunderstorms exiting southeast Kansas this morning.
  Additional heavy rainfall over far southern Kansas may
  aggravate ongoing flooding concerns. Also, storms may pose a
  marginal hail and wind threat near the KS/OK border.

- Another round of showers/storms tonight through early
  Saturday, especially over southern Kansas.

- A few strong to severe storms possible late Sunday through
  Sunday night, mainly south-central and southeast Kansas.

- Dry weather pattern Monday through Wednesday, with slight
  chances for storms entering back into the forecast by
  Wednesday night or Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

EARLY THIS MORNING:

Current thunderstorm complex over southern KS and northern OK will
continue progressing east-southeast early this morning, exiting far
southeast KS a few hours past sunrise. Greatest chances for severe
storms will remain from near the KS/OK border on south, where best
combination of instability and effective deep layer shear reside on
the nose of a stout low-level jet. Furthermore, training cells will
support heavy rainfall from near the KS/OK border on south, where
rainfall amounts of 1-2+ inches are possible, which could aggravate
ongoing flooding concerns. Further north along and either side of
roughly Highway 54/400, rainfall amounts will be lighter but still
meaningful, possibly upwards of 0.50" to 0.75". These somewhat
lighter rainfall rates and amounts should prevent widespread
additional flooding concerns, although some minor low-land flooding
is possible.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY:

Another thunderstorm complex is expected tonight through early
Saturday, as a potent upper trough approaches from the west-
northwest. Similar to right now, the highest confidence for numerous
thunderstorms is over southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Given the wet
antecedent conditions, will extend the current flood watch over
southern KS through tonight, and possibly add Kingman county to the
watch. Additionally, a favorable combination of buoyancy and
effective deep layer shear will support strong to severe storms over
far southern KS, but especially southwest Kansas through Oklahoma.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY

One final chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms arrives
late Sunday through early Monday areawide, as a strong cold front
drives south across the region. Modest deep layer shear coupled with
strong instability may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms,
especially over south-central and southeast Kansas. Stay tuned as we
refine forecast details in the coming days.

MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:

Model consensus supports a dry weather pattern Monday through
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds south into Mid-America.
Thereafter, returning moisture may support low thunderstorm chances
returning by Wednesday night. Flow aloft looks quite weak, so at
first glance the threat for severe storms appears low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Stubborn MVFR stratus will scatter across central KS by 20Z with
VFR conditions expected areawide into the evening hours. A few
showers/storms are possible across south-central and eastern KS
this afternoon. Due to the isolated nature expected, have opted
for PROB30 groups at ICT/HUT/CNU. More-widespread thunderstorm
development is expected across the high Plains this afternoon
with a complex of thunderstorms moving across portions of
central/south-central/southeast KS late tonight. Introduced
TEMPO groups for the most likely timeframe for convection
overnight. After morning convection ends, lingering MVFR CIGS
are probable at most sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ082-091>093-
098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRF