212
FXUS63 KICT 261124
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
624 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions expected through Tuesday. Heat indices between
  105 and 115 possible each afternoon and early evening.

- Periodic storm chances return early Tuesday morning and
  continue through the end of next week. Best chances will be
  during the overnight hours each night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

     TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air
analysis continues to show a large and strong mid/upper ridge across
the southern/central Rockies and into the southern/central plains.
The bottom line: this persistent pattern continues to be very
supportive of hot conditions across the central plains. This
afternoon will be much like yesterday with 500 mb heights and 850 mb
temperatures above the 95th percentile supporting afternoon surface
temperatures in the 100s across nearly the entire forecast area.
While dewpoints will be lower than yesterday, they will likely
remain in the mid 60s to low 70s. These conditions will support heat
indices up to 110 across the forecast area, and it`s possible heat
indices could out perform what is currently forecast (much like
yesterday). That being said, boundary layer mixing could be more
intense than forecast for locations west of I-135 which would lead
to dewpoints in the lower 60s. However, should this drier solution
pan out, air temperatures will likely be a tad hotter than currently
forecast, which would still lead to heat indices approaching 110
across these locations. Regardless of the finer details, it will be
hot (yes, even for summer), and those sensitive to heat will need to
take the proper precautions if spending time outside this afternoon
and early evening. Heat stress will continue even into the nighttime
hours with lows struggling to fall below 80 degrees overnight.

The pattern is not expected to change much for Monday with the
aforementioned strong upper anti-cyclone and very warm mid-level
temperatures supporting hot surface air temperatures during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Mid-range guidance continues to
suggest that deep mixing, mostly due to breezy south-southwest
winds, during the afternoon hours will likely lead to drier
conditions on Monday; however, this will also lead to hotter
afternoon highs. That being said, even if afternoon highs are around
105, dewpoints in the low 60s won`t drive heat indices much higher
than that, so a heat advisory has been maintained (no upgrade to a
warning) despite the forecast calling for hotter afternoon
temperatures than yesterday and today.

The forecast beyond Monday evening/night begins to become a little
more uncertain as the aforementioned upper ridge begins to break
down and shift westward, and a weak cold front slowly sags southward
into Kansas overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. A complex of
storms is likely to develop across the northern High Plains and
progress eastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska during
the overnight hours. Currently, rain chances are limited to north of
I-70 early Tuesday morning given that very warm mid-level
temperatures will likely be detrimental to the maintenance of
convection south of I-70. With that being said, it is 2026, and the
trend this year has been for convection to overperform model
guidance. Therefore, trends will need to be monitored over the next
36-48 hours.

     TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Assuming that convection Monday night into Tuesday morning behaves
as currently forecast, another hot day is likely on Tuesday,
especially across southern and southeast Kansas. Lighter surface
winds out of the east/southeast Tuesday afternoon is likely to
prevent deep mixing of the boundary layer, thus dewpoints will
likely a tad higher. Despite afternoon highs forecast to be slightly
"cooler," heat indices should still exceed 105 across southern and
southeast Kansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. With the primary
ridge axis shifting westwards towards the Four Corners region, the
mid-level baroclinic zone is forecast to be draped over Kansas late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Model guidance suggest
widely scattered showers and storms are possible along this feature
early Wednesday morning with some activity possibly lingering across
far eastern Kansas well into Wednesday afternoon. Assuming coverage
and timing of potential convection ends up as currently forecast,
the area will continue to feel the influence of the ridge out west
with highs rising into the mid to upper 90s Wednesday afternoon.
Beyond this point, details become a little less clear. However, in
general, mid-range model guidance suggests a pattern supportive of
periodic storm chances through the remainder of the week with a
parade of shortwave troughs embedded in weak northwest flow sweeping
over the region. Severe weather is not anticipated with this
activity at this time, but stay tuned for updates over the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.

Light southerly winds will increase to around 10 to 15 knots
this afternoon. Locations along and west of I-135 could see
occasional gusts around 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC