004
FXUS63 KICT 020853
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
253 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog possible (40-50 percent chance) this morning

- Patchy fog possible Saturday morning across central KS

- Warm and dry pattern through the middle of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

As of 230 AM Friday morning, quasi-zonal midlevel flow was present
across the central Plains with a weak, compact shortwave trough
progressing through central OK. Unfortunately, the bulk of
precipitation will remain across OK with only increased midlevel
cloudiness across KS. An expansive area of surface high
pressure extends from the northern Plains through the southern
MO valley. On the southwestern periphery of this area of high
pressure, small dewpoint depressions and weak upslope flow was
contributing to fog formation across portions of northeast KS.
This axis of fog formation is expected to spread southwest
across portions of central, south-central, and southeast KS
later this morning. To this point, widespread dense fog hasn`t
been noted, likely due to the expansive midlevel cloud cover. As
a result, confidence remains too low for the issuance of a
Dense Fog Advisory but trends will need to be monitored through
sunrise.

Transitioning into the daytime hours today, fog and low stratus will
gradually erode through the morning/early afternoon. The exact
timing of this erosion will prove critical for afternoon
temperatures. Given the persistent northeasterly flow,
anticipate the fog/stratus will linger into the afternoon. This
scenario is greatly supported by the HREF with much cooler
temperatures when compared to the global models. As such,
forecast temperatures have decreased a few degrees with highs
mainly in the 40s to near 50 expected. Should the latest
HRRR/RAP runs verify, highs in the upper 30s are possible across
portions of central KS. Again, trends will need to be
monitored.

By tonight, another weak and compact shortwave trough will slide
across the central Plains. Little if any precipitation is expected
with its passage. Otherwise, the southwestern periphery of the
surface high pressure will setup across portions of central KS
tonight into early Saturday morning with additional fog formation
possible.

For Saturday and beyond, midlevel heights will gradually increase as
a midlevel ridge amplifies and spreads across the Plains. This will
promote warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s over the weekend
and 60s early next week. Mid to long range guidance continues to
suggest the next potential for precipitation arrives towards the
latter half of next week as a southwestern trough ejects into the
central/southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions continue to be expected throughout the area
later tonight into Friday morning as moisture builds in from the
northeast. BUFKIT soundings continue to further indicate light
column winds and saturation to the surface at SLN and RSL through
mid/late morning, which suggests the potential for fog. Decided to
maintain the 1SM mention at these sites for this cycle, though per
prior discussions, higher clouds may prevent optimal radiation
cooling to promote widespread vsby reductions.

Look for low cigs to gradually clear out throughout the late
morning/early afternoon at all sites, with VFR and light
winds anticipated to prevail through the rest of the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK