201
FXUS63 KICT 111128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous storms likely across southeast Kansas this afternoon
  and evening.

- Milder temperatures and drier conditions likely for Friday.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

     TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Early this morning, a large, deep layer trough is residing over the
northern plains with several embedded shortwave troughs within a
west-east oriented jet over the northern/central plains. The axis of
on of these shortwave troughs is located over the northern and
central Rockies this morning, and will eject into the
central/northern plains later this afternoon and evening. At the
surface, a surface cyclone is quickly developing across western
Kansas, and it will quickly move northeastward throughout the
day. A cold front will sweep across Kansas as this surface low
moves into the Missouri River Valley, and it will serve as the
focus for numerous thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Before storms develop, gusty southerly to southwesterly
winds ahead of the frontal boundary are expected this morning
and early this afternoon. Gusts across southeast Kansas may be
between 35 to 45 mph at times. Additionally, northwest winds
behind the front will also be gusty as with 35 to 45 mph wind
gusts possible across central Kansas as well. Later this
afternoon, short-range guidance continues to show that this cold
front will generally be located along a Kansas City to Winfield
line by 21-22Z this afternoon. As the front crashes into a very
moist and unstable airmass, rapid thunderstorm development is
expected by at least 22Z. 4000-4500 J/kg of MLCAPE and effective
shear around 30 to 35 knots will support organized storms
capable of large hail and damaging winds. The main caveat will
be that thunderstorm activity should rapidly grow upscale, and
this will significantly limit the hail threat about 1-2 hours
after initial thunderstorm development. Lastly, PWATs around 2
inches will support very high rainfall rates with any storm that
develops. With how saturated the ground is in southeast Kansas
already, these high rainfall rates will likely lead to localized
flooding or flash flooding. Fortunately, thunderstorm activity
should be quite progressive, and chances for storms should exit
southeast Labette County by 03-04Z.

     FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

The aforementioned front will shunt the deep, rich moisture and hot
temperatures south of the forecast area for Friday. Afternoon
temperatures will be near average in the mid to upper 80s, and
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s will make conditions feel
relatively pleasant compared to the past few days. That being
said, robust flow aloft moving over the Rockies will support
pressure falls across the High Plains which will bring the
return of southerly low-level flow and deeper moisture. Short
range guidance continues to show not much of anything overnight
Friday night into Saturday morning; however, some global models
continue to show a fairly decent setup for an overnight MCS
across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Again, the latter
outcome has a low chance of occurring, but it`s a signal worth
monitoring over the next day or two. A more definite return to
active weather will be on Saturday as a shortwave trough
traverses over the High Plains and central plains during the
afternoon and evening hours with a cold front slowly sagging
across the region as well. With richer moisture back in place
across the state along with the previously mentioned sources
for widespread ascent, scattered thunderstorm development is
expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Sufficient instability
and shear will be in place to support severe weather across a
large portion of the region on Saturday, so be sure to stay
tuned to the forecast over the next couple of days.

     SUNDAY AND BEYOND..

Much cooler air will arrive behind the cold front, and afternoon
temperatures on Sunday only rise into the 70s across the area.
Temperatures will slowly recover through the beginning of the week,
and more summer-like temperatures will likely return as soon as
Wednesday. Confidence in the precipitation forecast for Sunday and
beyond is low at this time, but trends have been drier for next
week. While rain and storm chances haven`t been completely removed
from the forecast yet, the overall synoptic pattern from model
guidance suggests a bit of break for the area for the beginning
and middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds have already begun this
morning as a strong cold front approaches the region. The front
should arrive within the next 2-6 hours across central and
south-central Kansas, and winds will shift from southwesterly
to northwesterly after the frontal passage. Wind speeds will be
around 20 knots with gusts around 30-40 knots possible.

Meanwhile, the front will help to trigger scattered
thunderstorms across southeast Kansas after 18Z this afternoon.
Some of these storms could produce large hail, wind gusts over
50 knots, and very heavy rainfall. Storm chances should end
after 03Z.

Tonight through Friday morning, VFR conditions will prevail, and
winds will be light and variable across the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC