198
FXUS63 KICT 071915
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
215 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Mild and dry weather anticipated to last through this week.

- Very high grassland fire danger expected Tuesday and Thursday,
  then again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates weak northwesterly flow
aloft over the Central Plains while a strong upper jet continues to
track to the northeast over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a
weak cold front is progressing southward through the state, with
modest cold-air advection observed in central and northeast Kansas.
Northerly winds associated with this boundary will gradually veer
back around to the south overnight as the associated surface high
slides to the southeast toward the Ohio River Valley.

A tightening surface pressure gradient will develop out ahead of
another cold front approaching the region on Tuesday. This will lead
to gusty southerly winds throughout the forecast region during the
afternoon, thereby promoting high temperatures near 80 in central
Kansas and highs near 70 in south central and southeast Kansas.
Following the cold front`s passage Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, temperatures will rebound into the middle to upper 70s
areawide. Yet another cold front will pass through the state on
Thursday as a clipper system moves over the Great Lakes Region. As
with previous systems, this is not expected to bring precipitation
at this time, but will knock afternoon highs back into the low 70s.
Both frontal passages are expected to bring breezy northerly winds
to the area.

The mid/upper ridge is progged to build and shift eastward to close
out the week, thus promoting the return of highs in the upper 70s to
near 80 by Saturday and areawide highs in the mid 80s by Sunday.
Breezy southerly winds alongside dry conditions are anticipated to
accompany these abnormally-warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for most the next 24 hours. The only
caveat is RSL, where visibilities and/or ceilings will be
reduced in smoke periodically this afternoon due to a
prescribed burn north-northeast of the airport. Otherwise,
modest to breezy northwest to northeast winds will prevail this
afternoon, switching to southeasterly tonight, and becoming
breezy/gusty by mid-late morning Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Very high grassland fire danger is expected in portions central
Kansas Tuesday afternoon due to breezy southerly winds and
temperatures well above normal.

Very high grassland fire danger will return to central Kansas on
Thursday following the passage of a cold front. Gusty northwesterly
winds alongside low RH values and above normal temperatures will
persist through a majority of the afternoon.

Exceptionally warm and windy conditions will lead to very high
grassland fire danger this weekend. This danger is expected to be
highest in central Kansas on Saturday and expand into most of the
forecast area by Sunday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...JWK