734
FXUS63 KICT 310730
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are ongoing this morning producing brief
  heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Chances should come to an end
  across southeast Kansas by mid to late morning.

- Heat indices at or above 105 this afternoon across far
  southeast Kansas.

- Cooler and quieter this weekend. Temperatures rebounding next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

Early this morning, a broken line of showers and storms was
traversing southeastward along an advancing cold front across
portions of southeast Nebraska into northern/northeast Kansas. This
cluster of storms will generally ride along the axis of greatest
elevated instability, which is laid out over northeast Kansas, and
should remain north and east of a Salina-Chanute line. Meanwhile,
additional showers and storms have developed further southwest of
the main cluster in a region of mid-level WAA. Despite extensive
convective inhibition from warm mid-level temperatures, there`s more
than enough ascent to overcome this and support continued
thunderstorm development and maintenance. In general, the intensity
of storms across the forecast area this morning will somewhat
limited given the aforementioned CIN; however, some of the stronger
convection could produce 35 to 50 mph winds gusts, brief heavy
rainfall, and a few lightning strikes. With the leading cold
front/outflow boundary exiting southeast Kansas by 12-15Z this
morning, rain chances should come to an end along with it.

Through much of the day the main synoptic front will sag
southeastward across the forecast area. While cooler air will lag
behind the initial wind shift allowing for temperatures to rise in
the 90s area-wide, drier air will be filtering in throughout the day
keeping maximum heat indices in check for most locations. That being
said, portions of far southeast Kansas will remain ahead of the
front for much of the day. Compressional warming and moisture
pooling ahead of the frontal boundary in these areas will contribute
to afternoon temperatures near 100 with dewpoints in the 70s,
which is more than enough to send heat indices above 105. The
cooler air will finally arrive by tonight sending lows into the
60s.

Thanks to an anomalously strong surface ridge sinking
southeastward across the northern plains and Midwest, a tight
pressure gradient across the area will support breezy northerly
winds throughout much of the day on Saturday. This will continue
the advection of mild air into the region, especially along and
east of the Flint Hills where many locations may only see
afternoon highs in the low 80s. This milder airmass will linger
into Saturday night, and lows will dip into the low to mid 60s.

...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Mid range ensemble and deterministic model guidance continues to
show a gradual rebound in temperatures, beginning on Sunday, thanks
in part to gradual height rises aloft from a weak upper ridge
building across the central plains. While Sunday will feature near,
or just below average temperatures, seasonably hot conditions will
return as soon as Monday and last through much of next week.
However, the airmass will be much drier next week than it has been
this past week. This will generally limit heat indices to the
90s and low 100s despite air temperatures being about the same.
In terms of rain chances next week, there`s a number of details
that need to be worked out. That being said, some of the model
guidance is hinting at a weak cold front stalling out across
Nebraska and Kansas which would support the potential for
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours
each day towards the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight
into Friday morning, especially across northern and eastern KS.
Short term models continue to suggest RSL, SLN, and CNU stand
the greatest potential for a brief period of -TSRA. The timing
of TSRA has been adjusted later at SLN and a TEMPO TSRA has
been added at RSL and CNU. Confidence remains low for the
remaining terminals for convection. Northwesterly winds will
increase during the mid-morning hours Friday to near 15 kts with
gusts near 25 kt before decreasing near 02Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BRF