527
FXUS63 KICT 241715
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1215 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms ongoing across south-central and southeastern
Kansas this morning.

- Wet pattern for southeast Kansas will persist through the weekend.

- Drier weather expected by mid next week, but overall active
  pattern will continue through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

As of 3am, a broad area of sub-severe, elevated thunderstorms are
located across central Kansas and extending into eastern and
southeastern Kansas. This activity is located along and just north
of the instability gradient. More surface based convection is
located in south-central Kansas and surging southeastward as a
bowing line segment. This activity will continue to shift
southeastward during the early morning hours bringing high winds and
large hail to southern portions of the forecast area. Convection
looks to finally exit the area between 12-15Z.

This morning`s activity is a reflection of the broader pattern we`re
currently in and that will remain in place through the weekend. The
mid-level ridge axis is situated over the Rockies placing much of
the Central Plains in northwest flow. Portions of eastern Kansas are
located under the right entrance region of the upper-level jet
leading to broad scale lift across the area. This setup will
continue to lead to on and off rain and thunderstorms over the next
few days. After storms clear out of the area this morning and the
WAA axis shifts south and east, the environment will then recover
during the day. While the better environment for severe storm
activity will remain to our south across the Southern Plains during
the day, a mid-level disturbance will pass over the area tonight
into Sunday morning. This disturbance, along with the LLJ, will lead
to additional storm chances across southern and especially
southeastern Kansas during the nighttime hours. Going forward into
Sunday and Monday, the ridge will slowly shift eastward, shifting
the higher rain chances along with it. The ongoing threat through
this weekend and into the day on Monday will be excessive rainfall
across southeastern Kansas. Locations south and east of the Turnpike
could see rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches. Far southeast
Kansas remains in a Flood Watch that includes Allen, Wilson, Neosho,
Chautauqua, Montgomery, and Labette counties through 7 PM Monday.

A brief reprieve from rain and storm activity may occur mid week,
but an overall active pattern will continue through the end of the
week with on and off rain and storm chances persisting. Rainfall
totals will be more sporadic as storm mode and coverage will be more
variable.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Morning convection has pushed south and east of the terminals
with VFR conditions ongoing at ICT. VFR conditions may return at
HUT by mid-afternoon but the remaining sites are likely to
remain within a band of MVFR CIGS. Short term trends will need
to be monitored through late afternoon with the potential for
convection across south-central KS. The best chances for
convection this afternoon is across northern OK, therefore have
withheld and mention at ICT or HUT for now. -TSRA becomes likely
overnight, especially south of I-70. Convection will end from
west to east during the post-dawn morning hours of Sunday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ072-095-096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF