553
FXUS63 KICT 251944
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
244 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
  through tonight, especially along/northwest of the KS Turnpike.

- After a period of mostly dry weather, increasing thunderstorm
  chances are possible once again Sunday Night.

- Near to slightly above average temperatures the next several
  days, becoming solidly above average this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Currently, the mid/upper level ridge is centered over the Southern
High Plains and Desert Southwest leaving the forecast area on the
northeast periphery of the ridge. A shortwave trough is located over
the southern Canadian Prairies, digging into the Upper Midwest. At
the surface, an associated low pressure is just north of the
Northern Plains with a frontal boundary draped southward into
Nebraska. Some remnant showers are centered over central Kansas with
a cloud shield extending over much of the forecast area. For the
rest of today, a few locations will see light rainfall, especially
across central and far south-central Kansas. Temperatures are being
kept in check for now across the area due to the clouds, but temps
will rebound by late afternoon, reaching into the lower 90s for most.

Tonight, as the shortwave digs into the Upper Midwest and the
approaching front begins to push into southern Nebraska, storms are
expected to fire along the boundary late this evening.
Simultaneously, diurnal High Plains thunderstorms will push into
western Kansas. This thunderstorm cluster will gradually push
southeast across Kansas bringing storm chances to central Kansas.
Current guidance suggests the marginal severe threat will be
confined west of I-35, with the best chances for severe gusts along
and west of a line from Salina/Hutch/Pratt. Some showers are
expected to linger into the morning across the area, but there`s
still some uncertainty on the eastward extent.

Temperatures through Friday will remain steady in the upper 80s and
lower 90s as the shortwave helps to keep the ridge center well
southwest of the Central Plains. Rain chances look minimal through
the end of the week behind the frontal boundary. High pressure will
build in and overall drier conditions are expected.

By this weekend, as the trough over the Great Lakes shifts eastward,
the ridge will be allowed to build in over the Southern and Central
Plains. Heights will rise over the region and temperatures will
respond accordingly. Highs for Saturday and Sunday will reach into
the upper 90s to lower 100s across the forecast area. A shortwave
looks to traverse the Northern Plains on Sunday, bringing a boundary
and associated rain chances to northern and central Kansas for
Sunday night. The shortwave passage will then shunt the ridge ever
so slightly south for the tail end of the forecast period.
Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are still expected to reach above
normal, with highs in the middle 90s for central Kansas and upper
90s and lower 100s for south-central and southeast Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Main aviation concern will be storm chances through much of this
forecast.

Cluster of storms developed over northwest KS early this morning
with what is left of them making their way into south central
KS. Storms have started to weaken over the last hour with low
confidence if they will make it to KICT this afternoon. For now
will leave mention out for KICT but will include a PROB30 for
thunder at KHUT-KGBD-KRSL over the next few hours. Still looking
for storms to develop late this afternoon or evening over the
High Plains in an upslope regime, and track east and southeast
overnight. Confidence in the exact track and timing of this
activity remains very low, especially with how models have
struggled with this mornings convection. So for now will just
run with some PROB30s for areas along and west of I-135 in the
03-09z time frame.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...RBL