Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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440
FXUS63 KICT 200339
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1039 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms this afternoon and evening, with additional
  chances this weekend into early next week.

- Seasonably warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday

- A cooldown will arrive this weekend and persist into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

This morning, a few meandering showers and thunderstorms impacted
portions of central and eastern Kansas as they developed along
remnant outflow boundaries and an MCV located in north-central
Kansas. This activity remained relatively benign but left
additional boundaries across central Kansas. On the synoptic
scale, a broad upper ridge is centered over the Desert Southwest
which is responsible for the past couple days of heat.

For this afternoon and evening, a short wave over the Upper Midwest
will push a weak frontal boundary into the state. This front,
along with the MCV and remnant boundaries, will move south
across the area this afternoon and evening and be the focal
point for thunderstorm development. A few storms have already
developed and moved south into Marion, Chase, and Butler
counties. Activity will continue to drift southward this
afternoon and early evening. While shear will remain relatively
weak, moderate instability and high PWATs will support a few
wet microbursts through the afternoon and early evening hours.
This activity will be relatively diurnally driven and is
expected to dissipate through the late evening hours. Due to the
slow moving nature of this activity, locally heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding concerns will be the lingering focus
into the evening hours.

For the rest of the work week, an upper trough across the northern
tier of the country/southern Canada will help to shift the ridge
slightly further south and west. This will keep the seasonably warm
temperatures across the state while leading to drier conditions.
Afternoon highs through the end of the week will reach into the
upper 80s to lower 90s areawide. PWATs of around 1.25 inch  are
expected leading to dewpoints in the upper 60s by Thursday and
Friday.

Then this weekend into next week, the upper trough across southern
Canada will dig into the Great Lakes region. This trough will force
a potent frontal boundary across the Plains on Friday and will
traverse our area on Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms are
expected along with the frontal passage with exact timing still
uncertain. Behind the front, much cooler weather is anticipated.
Temperatures on Sat/Sun will remain in the 80s. Another pulse of
cooler air will move into the area Sunday night into Monday leading
to temperatures for early next week remaining in the 70s. On and off
isolated precip chances will continue through early next week, but
current frontal position keeps the higher probabilities further
south and west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For central, south-central, and southeast Kansas...Cannot
completely rule out a stray shower/thunderstorm or two
overnight, as an upper trough drops southeast over Mid-America.
However, suspect most locations will remain dry. Later tonight
into Wednesday morning, short-term guidance supports the
potential for SCT-BKN low VFR or high MVFR clouds possibly
impacting the CNU TAF site. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail the next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...ADK