658
FXUS63 KICT 212313
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
613 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning across
  north- central KS with additional nocturnal thunderstorm
  chances Wednesday night through Friday night

- Heat indices above 100 may return this weekend into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Ridging dominates the western two-thirds of the CONUS as a
strengthening trough digs into the Great Lakes region. A 990mb low
pressure is centered north of the Lakes with a cold frontal boundary
extending across the Ohio Valley and into Oklahoma. The frontal
boundary passed over the forecast area this morning, turning winds
out of the northeast. Gusts this afternoon have reached between 15-
25 mph behind the front. The drier air has been slower to filter in,
dewpoints across central Kansas have fallen into the 50s with
portions of south-central Kansas now in the 60s. Far southern and
southeast Kansas dewpoints remain in the 70s, which when combined
with temperatures near 100 degrees is leading heat indices over 110
degrees. Temperatures generally north of Hwy 50 will only reach into
the middle 90s this afternoon, with upper 90s and lower 100s further
south. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for southern and
southeast Kansas from 12-8pm and a Heat Advisory is in place for
portions of south-central and southeast Kansas.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the forecast area will remain on the
northeast edge of the ridge with the ridge axis extending from the
Southern Plains northwestward into the Northern Rockies.
Temperatures for mid week will top out near normal with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Drier air behind the front will also make
things feel more comfortable as dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s are anticipated. A shortwave trough will begin to dig into the
High Plains on Wednesday, traversing the Central Plains on Thursday
into Thursday night. This feature, along with a strengthening LLJ
each night, will support rain and storm chances Wed. and Thu. nights
from northern into eastern Kansas. Then a few shower and storm
chances may linger in eastern Kansas on Friday afternoon and
evening before scooting to the east. Severe weather is not
anticipated with any of this activity.

The ridge will begin to build back over the region on Friday, with
mid-level heights increasing through Saturday. The ridge axis looks
to be situated just to our west for Sunday into early next week.
Temperatures for Friday through the end of the forecast period look
to gradually increase each day, with 100s possible again by the end
of next weekend and into Monday. With the ridge nearly overhead for
the end of the forecast time frame, negligible rain chances and
mostly clear skies are expected to return.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.

Winds will remain fairly steady out of the northeast to east at
around 5 to 15 knots through the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>072-082-
083.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JC