241
FXUS63 KICT 300533
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory is in effect through Wednesday evening in
  southern to southeast KS.

- Cooler air will start moving in on Wednesday, making
  temperatures Thursday-Saturday well below normal.

- Spotty rain chances possible Tonight mainly in central KS
  with periodic rain chances areawide each day through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Currently, there is a cold front extending from central NE through
central Iowa into southern WI/northern IL. A surface low is situated
over eastern CO/western KS with surface troughing stretching down
into TX and NM. In our area, southerly flow persists with dewpoints
in the upper 60s in central KS to mid 70s in southeast KS. Heat
indices are between 100-105 with slightly higher values over
southeast KS. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through this
evening. Moving into tonight, the cold front will move further south
near the NE/KS border with an upper-level ripple shifting over
eastern CO to western KS. A MCS is expected to track across NE,
keeping the bulk of these storms north of the area, but there is a
20-30% chance that storms will clip our northern counties. The main
impacts of these storms would be strong gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

On Wednesday, the cold front will push further south making it
extend from northeast KS through central KS into eastern CO by
Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures will be cooler than today in
central KS with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures in
south-central to southeast KS will likely stay warmer from
compressional heating of the front making high temps in the mid to
upper 90s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for southern to southeast
KS for Wednesday afternoon into the early evening. This cold front
is expected to move slower than expected, almost stalling in central
KS through 00z. There is about a 20-30% chance of storms developing
along the front mainly in our northern counties in the afternoon.
Another weak embedded ripple will shift across parts of northern
TX/western OK into southwest KS Wednesday night increasing precip
chances areawide. There is about a 30-50% chance for storms areawide
with the best chances in central KS. The main impacts of these
storms would be strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall as PWATS are
generally between 1.75-2 inches, though there is a bit of model
discrepancy with values and placement.

Thursday and beyond... By Thursday morning, the cold front should
move further south into Oklahoma and Texas. High temperatures will
be well below normal with highs in the upper 70s to 80s on Thursday.
Small precip chances (around 30%) are possible to continue into
Thursday afternoon, though uncertainty is high. This cooler pattern
will continue into Friday and Saturday as the cold front continues
to push further into Texas, making high temperatures 15-20 degrees
cooler than they are now. Embedded weak ripples will continue to
ride the upper-level ridging making low precip chances (15-20%)
possible Friday night. There is some model agreement between the GFS
and ECMWF bringing a more pronounced shortwave Saturday to Sunday,
increasing precip chances to 30% Saturday and Sunday night; however
given the uncertainty in the pattern, confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the end of the
period.

Southeast winds will gradually become northerly/northeasterly
throughout the period as a cold front sags southward. Latest short-
term CAMs highlight the potential for showers and storms developing
along this boundary in the afternoon and lasting through the end of
the period. Confidence is highest in impacts to south central and
southeast KS, so decided to introduce a PROB30 for -TSRA with
this issuance at ICT, HUT, and CNU. Could potentially see
coverage extend into central KS, so stay tuned to later cycles
as additional data becomes available.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JWK