595
FXUS63 KICT 091015
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
515 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms continue early this morning with flash flooding and
  river flooding being the primary concerns.

- Hot and humid conditions will support heat indices around 105
  across much of the area this afternoon.

- Low chance of severe storms across central Kansas with
  damaging winds around 60-70 mph possible.

- An active pattern continues Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

     TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Early this morning, the powerful line of storms that impacted
portions of central Kansas and the Flint Hills is exiting
southeast Kansas. Meanwhile, additional elevated storms have
developed across central Kansas, and environment remains
supportive of strong to severe storms. Much of this activity
should remain along I-70.

All of this activity this morning will eventually dissipate
and/or move north and east away from the forecast area. Clearing
skies this afternoon along with the influence of the mid/upper
ridge across the southern CONUS will allow for hot conditions to
overspread much of the area. Afternoon highs will easily rise
into the 90s and low 100s with heat indices between 100 and 106.
Out across western Kansas, a subtle shortwave will arrive
during peak diurnal heating. Just enough lift will overspread
western Kansas to support very high- based showers and storms.
Inverted-V model soundings suggest the primary concern will be
downburst winds. While the vast majority will stay west of the
area, some of it could sneak into Barton and Russell Counties
towards sunset. SPC`s 06Z Day 1 Outlook outlines this potential
fairly well, and an enhanced risk for damaging wind gusts has
been introduced and includes Great Bend and adjacent locations.
With the loss of diurnal heating after sunset, much of this
activity is likely to dissipate rather quickly. While extremely
difficult to predict, we usually see heat bursts from this kind
of set up, and gusty winds from this are also possible tonight.

     WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

Hot temperatures continue on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the
90s to potentially around 100 across south-central Kansas. Humid
conditions will assist in driving afternoon heat indices to around
105 across portions of south-central Kansas on Wednesday as well. A
weak frontal boundary will sag into the region late Wednesday
afternoon as a potent deep layer trough traverses across
central/northern plains. The better synoptic lift will be located
over the Upper Midwest and into the Missouri River Valley. However,
there is an outside chance that convergence along the frontal
boundary and ample diurnal heating could be enough to trigger a
storm or two across portions of central or south-central Kansas
Wednesday afternoon and evening with more numerous storms expected
along and northeast of a Salina-Chanute line. Should a storm
develop, the environment would support severe weather given ample
instability and shear for this time of year; however storm
development will be fighting some marginal subsidence from subtle
height rises aloft.

With a series of deep layer troughs set to parade over the central
and northern plains from the end of the work week and into the
weekend, both a moderation in temperatures and an active few days
are currently forecast. There are still a number of details to work
out over the coming days, but the possibility of strong to severe
storms does exist Thursday through Monday. Continue to monitor the
forecast over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Low clouds have started to settle into the area with most
terminal sites dropping to MVFR ceilings. Ceilings should start
to lift out early this morning with VFR conditions expected to
prevail through this TAF period. Southerly winds will increase
by late morning into the early afternoon with gusts up to 35 kts
especially in central to south-central KS. There is a low chance
for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the
evening mainly in central KS. Given the uncertainty, mention of
showers and storms was left out of this issuance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ033-049-052-053.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ033-048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...GC