396
FXUS63 KICT 070913
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
413 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms continue across portions of
  central and south-central KS this morning; a stray severe
  storm is possible with large hail the main concern

- Below normal temperatures today and Wednesday; warming trend
  ensues Thursday through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

As of 4 AM Tuesday morning, broad midlevel WAA combined with upper
divergence with the right entrance region of 50 kt 500mb jet
continues to produce widely scattered storms across central and
south-central KS. Meager, yet sufficient, midlevel lapse rates up to
7 C/km have resulted a couple of stronger updrafts, including an
elevated supercell across northeast Kingman County (golfball size
hail produced). This lapse rate plume will remain in place through
the morning hours, therefore additional strong/severe storms remain
possible, especially across south-central KS. Hail up to golf ball
size is the main concern. As the midlevel WAA weakens by midday, the
bulk of shower and storm activity will diminish. Sunny skies will
return to portions of central and south-central KS later this
afternoon. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will top out in the
60s to near 70.

Surface ridging will settle into the area by Wednesday with
seasonable temperatures and light winds. Midlevel ridging will build
across the central/southern Plains for the second half of the week
and upcoming weekend, which will likely result in a warming
trend with temperatures nearing 80 degrees once again. Another
cold front and shot of colder air is appearing possible early
next week, stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Low clouds in IFR/LIFR category will continue to linger over
central and south central Kansas into the morning hours on
Tuesday. Scattered rain showers with a few storms will develop
and move slowly to the east across the region. Low clouds will
begin to erode over central Kansas but should linger over south
central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...CDJ