782
FXUS63 KICT 141113
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
613 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog and rain showers early this morning across
  central Kansas

- Warmer temperatures and dry weather returns for Wednesday and
Thursday

- Next round of showers/storms will be possible for late
  Thursday night through Saturday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Rather soupy conditions early this morning with some areas of
dense fog and passing rain showers were affecting parts of
central/south central Kansas. The areas of dense fog could be
brief early this morning across central Kansas as any passing
rain shower should improve visibilities. At the surface a
stalled out frontal boundary in Oklahoma will begin to lift
slowly northward as a warm front today. Additional rain showers
have developed over southwestern Kansas early this morning north
of the warm front, and some of this activity will affect
central Kansas mainly during the morning hours. The
precipitation will taper off for central Kansas as the warm
front boundary pushes further northward into Nebraska. Meanwhile
current satellite water vapor imagery shows a well pronounced
upper level low pressure system over southern California. This
system will lift slowly northeast across the Rockies and eject
out into the northern plains by Thursday night. Dry weather and
warmer temperatures will prevail across central/eastern Kansas
for Wed-Thu as upper level ridge amplifies and moves slowly
east.

Next round for showers/storms still looks favorable to develop over
western sections of Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday. Some of this
activity could spread into central Kansas late Thursday night and
shift eastward across Kansas for Friday as a cold front moves slowly
east. At this time instability levels projected by model guidance
for this period remains low which would limit strong/severe storm
potential. Depending on model timing for the cold front exiting
Kansas there could be some lingering showers/storms over southeast
Kansas on Saturday. Models seem to be in good agreement with much
drier air and strong subsidence overspreading the region behind
departing upper trough for Saturday afternoon through the remainder
of the weekend. This will result in dry weather conditions and
daytime highs near or slightly above normal for mid October.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Poor aviation conditions will affect much of central Kansas this
morning with dense fog and low cigs in the IFR/LIFR category.
Scattered rain showers will move northeast across central Kansas
this morning and should shift north of the area by early
afternoon. Meanwhile low clouds/visibilities will gradually
improve from south to north as warm front lifts northward across
the region. This will cause the winds to switch from the east to
southeast, then southerly direction.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-047-
048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ