155
FXUS63 KICT 262326
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today with isolated rain and storm chances across SE KS.

- Dangerous heat returns Sunday and continues through Tuesday.

- Storm chances increase for Wed-Fri along with cooler
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A strong ridge currently sits over the Southeastern US and the
feature that brought us our rain and storms the past couple of days
has shifted into the Upper Midwest. A trailing weak boundary extends
from this surface low into southeastern Kansas. So far this morning,
this boundary has been the focus of a couple of isolated showers in
the far southeast portions of the forecast area. For the rest of the
afternoon, this region will remain relatively uncapped with plenty
of instability. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible, though widespread coverage and severe weather are not
expected. This activity should diminish and move out of the area by
the early evening hours. Temperatures will begin to rebound today
with highs in the lower to middle 90s expected areawide. Heat index
values will reach into the lower 100s.

For Sunday into early next week, the midlevel ridge will shift back
westward and will be centered directly over the Central Plains. This
means temperatures will tick even warmer with afternoon highs Sun-
Tue expected to reach into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
areawide. Dewpoints on Sunday will remain in the lower to middle 70s
leading to heat index values between 105 to 108 degrees. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for the entire area for Sunday afternoon.
As we move into Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will remain above
normal, but the atmosphere will begin to dry out some. Dewpoints
around 70 degrees are expected for Monday, with dewpoints in the 60s
for Tuesday. This will lead to heat index values slightly lower than
Sunday.

Towards the end of the forecast period, global models are in fairly
good agreement that another shortwave trough will dig into the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for the second half of the week.
This will send another weak boundary across Kansas for the end of
the week that will interact with moisture surging up from Mexico and
the Desert SW. Enhanced rain and storm chances are expected
beginning on Wednesday afternoon and continuing through the end of
the week. Along with the rain potential, below normal temperatures
are expected for the end of the forecast period as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Southerly
winds will pick up around 16z with gusts between 20-25 kts
mainly at RSL, GBD, and SLN.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...GC