826
FXUS63 KICT 041130
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
630 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty hit-or-miss shower/thunderstorm chances from this
  afternoon through the next 7 days. Locally heavy rainfall and
  isolated strong wind gusts are the primary threats.

- Mostly seasonable temperatures expected the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

PRECIPITATION:

TODAY-TONIGHT...Increasing deep moisture advection from the south in
concert with an approaching mid-upper trough should support spotty
hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms by this afternoon mainly
along/west of the Flint Hills. Poor mid-level lapse rates and weak
deep layer shear should preclude severe weather chances, with the
strongest activity capable of locally heavy rainfall and isolated
strong wind gusts. Thinking this initial activity will be mostly
diurnal in nature, with a majority of this activity dissipating by 8-
9pm. However, after about 10pm, storm coverage/chances should
increase some from the northwest especially over central KS,
immediately ahead of the approaching mid-upper trough. Once again,
severe weather is not expected with this activity.

SATURDAY...Chances for spotty hit-or-miss showers/storms should be
highest mainly along/east of the KS Turnpike in vicinity of the
progressing mid-level trough. However, a few storms can`t be ruled
out further northwest across portions of central and north-central
KS by late Saturday, as a weak frontal zone approaches from the
north. This further northwest late Saturday activity has the
potential to be strong to marginally severe, given steeper mid-level
lapse rates and greater instability.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Per deterministic and ensemble consensus,
the upper ridge is expected to flatten some, remaining primarily
south-southwest of the region the next several days. This will keep
Kansas within a favorable storm track consisting of subtle mid-upper
perturbations approaching from the west-northwest. This in concert
with a couple weak stalled frontal zones across the area should
support continued periodic shower/storm chances Sunday through next
week. While widespread organized severe weather appears unlikely,
modest flow aloft could support the deep layer shear needed for at
least an off-and-on low-end severe threat. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible as well.

TEMPERATURES:

With the upper ridge flattening some and remaining primarily south-
southwest of the area, along with periodic shower/storm chances,
mostly seasonable to even slightly below average temperatures are
expected for at least the next 7 days across the region. Overnight
lows ranging from the upper 60s-low 70s, and daytime highs ranging
from the mid-80s into the low 90s appears probable, with a low
chance for intense above average summer heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Low-level moisture advection from the south will support
increasing chances for SCT-BKN MVFR or low VFR ceilings this
morning, especially along/west of the Flint Hills. Additionally,
increasing deep moisture advection in concert with a mid to
upper level trough approaching from the west will support
increasing chances for spotty hit-or-miss showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially west
of the Flint Hills. Instability is better further west, so
included TSRA in PROB30 groups at RSL, GBD, and SLN, with SHRA
further east for ICT and HUT where instability will be less.
Thinking somewhat better chances for showers/thunderstorms
arrives from the northwest later this evening and overnight,
especially for RSL, GBD, and SLN.

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK