212
FXUS63 KICT 241732
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Severe weather potential continues for the weekend with some
   uncertainty how things unfold

- Dry weather for Monday and Tuesday followed by more chances
  for showers/storms returning Wednesday-Thursday, severe
  weather probabilities look lower at this time for this period

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Dry weather conditions will be in place today across Kansas as the
cold front from last night into this morning has shoved the
better quality moisture further south into Oklahoma.

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level short
wave over the eastern Pacific just off the shoreline of
California. This wave will travel eastward across the Rockies
today-tonight then eject out into western Kansas Saturday
morning, then quickly sprint eastward across the state during
the afternoon. Decent signal of mid-level warm advection looks
to spark off elevated showers/storms over northwest Kansas and
parts of central Kansas Saturday morning. This activity looks to
expand southward during the afternoon as mid-level warm
advection persists. This elevated activity along with cloud
cover will hamper daytime low-level destabilization across
Kansas for Saturday afternoon. Confidence is higher for the
better low level moisture/instability to remain south of Kansas
where models show a warm front lifting northward over Oklahoma
but never quite makes it into Kansas. Model hodographs do
indicate very healthy elongated shear in the 1-6km layer along
with steep mid-level lapse rates supportive of large hail
Saturday afternoon-night.

Heading into Sunday there is lots of uncertainty on how the severe
weather ingredients and environment could play out over
central/southern Kansas. NAM/GFS model soundings show deep low-level
saturation profiles along and north of the surface warm front
supportive of drizzle/cooler temperatures extending into the
afternoon as the richer moisture advects northward. This would
mitigate low level destabilization significantly(higher values
of MLCIN) especially if the drizzle was to develop and persist
well into the afternoon hours over the area. What seems more
certain at this time is for surface base convection to develop
over western/southwest Kansas where clearing and destabilization
near the triple point and dry line will be more prominent. As
this activity moves eastward towards central Kansas it could
experience this less favorable environment shrouded in low
clouds/drizzle, but there could be a window over south
central/southeast Kansas late afternoon/evening where the low
clouds scatter out and allow daytime heating/destabilization to
commence as surface warm front lifts northward. Lots to watch
this period over the next couple of days and where that warm
front ends up.

Monday-Thursday

Models show upper level wave shifting east of Kansas during the late
morning/early afternoon on Monday with drier air spreading southeast
across the area. As a result, chances of showers/storms look to
affect locations east of Kansas. Longer range models show upper flow
becoming more of a zonal west to east orientation with a couple
short waves traveling across the region. The better quality low-
level moisture looks to remain south of Kansas with some possible
elevated showers/storms affecting the region for Wednesday and
Thursday next week. At this time severe weather chances look low
during this period due to lower quality moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions and northeasterly winds will persist early this
afternoon. Winds will turn easterly through the afternoon hours
before becoming southeasterly for all sites by Saturday morning.
MVFR cigs are expected to overspread the area after 12Z. A few
scattered showers are possible after 12Z for central Kansas
sites, but still some uncertainty with coverage with minimal
impacts, so did not include at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...AMD