595
FXUS63 KICT 242034
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
334 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and overnight

- Excessive rainfall expected tonight and Sunday night

- On and off showers and storms remain possible through the late
  work week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Currently at 11:30am, there is a trough over the Northern
Rockies with the base of the trough over southern California.
Over the Great Plains, there is ridging with multiple embedded
shortwave ripples, keeping westerly flow aloft in our forecast
area. At the surface, there is a low in the Texas Panhandle with
a remnant convective boundary going through south-central
Kansas and a warm front extending from the sfc low to south-
central Oklahoma. There is an unstable air mass extending east
of the surface dryline and south of the remnant boundary.

This afternoon, a more humid air mass will progress farther north,
increasing instability in southern Kansas. Due to weak lift, it
still remains uncertain if thunderstorms will be able to develop. If
a storm does develop, strong to severe storms are possible with
ample deep layer shear, veering surface winds and decent mid-lvl
lapse rates. Large hail is the main threat but with surface-based
convection, and low-level veering of the winds, a few tornadoes
cannot be ruled out.

Tonight into Sunday morning, another upper/mid-lvl ripple will pass
over the area. This coupled with an increasing LLJ, will supply
synoptic lift over the forecast area. The environment will still be
favorable for strong to severe storms with 1500 J/kg MUCAPE and deep-
layer shear. With a low-lvl WAA axis expected to remain in place in
south-central Kansas, and the nose of the LLJ in southeast Kansas,
training storms are likely to develop. Additionally, with PWATS
greater than 1.5", which is well-above average for late May.
Therefore, the main threats for the overnight period are excessive
rainfall and large hail.

Going into Sunday, the upper ridge will continue to move eastward,
and the upper-level trough in southern California is expected to
traverse into the Central Great Basin/Desert Southwest, returning
southwesterly flow aloft to our area. With the surface low expected
to remain in the Texas Panhandle, a boundary remains in southern
Kansas along with an axis of low-level convergence. It remains
uncertain whether the environment will be able to recover for storms
to develop Sunday afternoon. However, as the axis of convergence and
instability increases Sunday night, showers and storms are expected
to become more widespread.

On Monday, the upper trough is expected to lift towards the New
Mexico-Colorado border with the surface low in central Oklahoma.
This keeps the axis of low-level convergence in Kansas, and supplies
lift for more showers and storms Monday afternoon to Monday night.
Severe storms could be possible in southern Kansas where MUCAPE is
up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This combined with favorable wind shear poses
large hail as the main impact. PWAT values are expected to be
between 1-1.5" with the largest totals generally in southeast
Kansas. With above average PWATS, excessive rainfall and flooding
are possible.

Continuing into Tuesday, the upper trough lifts and slows becoming
an upper-low over the Northern Plains, making flow aloft
northwesterly/westerly. This pattern is likely to remain in place
until Friday when ridging starts to build into the Great Plains,
leading to on and off rain chances through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Morning convection has pushed south and east of the terminals
with VFR conditions ongoing at ICT. VFR conditions may return at
HUT by mid-afternoon but the remaining sites are likely to
remain within a band of MVFR CIGS. Short term trends will need
to be monitored through late afternoon with the potential for
convection across south-central KS. The best chances for
convection this afternoon is across northern OK, therefore have
withheld and mention at ICT or HUT for now. -TSRA becomes likely
overnight, especially south of I-70. Convection will end from
west to east during the post-dawn morning hours of Sunday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ072-095-096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC/WI
AVIATION...BRF