883
FXUS63 KICT 100340
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1040 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures expected through at least Wednesday with most
  locations expected to see highs in the 100-105 degree range.

- A few storms possible later this afternoon/evening mainly
  along/north of I-70. Severe weather is not expected at this
  time.

- Shower and storm chances increase just a bit Wednesday night
  through Friday, with the best chances expected north of I-70.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict mid/upper
ridging over the Desert Southwest with an upper trough over the
Great Lakes. At the surface, a stalled surface boundary spans across
southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. Temperatures throughout the
area so far today have overachieved somewhat, with observed values
in the 105-110 degree range as of early this afternoon. As parcels
reach their convective temperatures later this afternoon and
evening, isolated showers and storms are possible mainly along/north
of I-70. This activity is not expected to be severe given modest
flow aloft, though small hail and brief gusty winds may be possible
with the strongest storms. Furthermore, a few short-term models also
highlight the potential for a few elevated showers near the vicinity
of the stalled surface boundary drifting from northwest Kansas
into our central counties heading into Monday morning. With
confidence being a bit low at this time owing to drier low level
conditions, decided to introduce silent PoPs to account for
this potential.

The prevailing pattern will continue to promote hot temperatures
through at least Wednesday. Layer thicknesses suggest areawide highs
in the 100-105 degree range, so not currently expecting temperatures
to be quite as hot as today. For Monday, fairly mixed-out dewpoints
could be just enough to keep heat indices below advisory criteria
for most locations. As such, conditions appear marginal enough to
not issue a heat advisory with this cycle, though this may change as
additional guidance becomes available. Similar conditions are
forecast for Tuesday with highs ranging from 100 to 105 degrees.
Regarding rain chances, little change in the positioning of the
aforementioned stationary front is anticipated as well, which may
allow for continued isolated shower/storm chances mainly north of I-
70 during the late afternoon and early evening hours Monday and
Tuesday.

Southwesterly flow aloft is progged across the Plains beginning
Wednesday as a couple of waves arrive in the western CONUS. Embedded
ripples in flow tracking through the Rockies and into the Central
Plains may allow for scattered showers and storms across central
Kansas Wednesday evening, though most guidance to this point places
the main activity further north into northern Kansas and southern
Nebraska. As such, another hot day with highs in the low to middle
100s appears likely at this time.

Looking toward the end of the week, there remains some question as
to how far south additional rain chances make it. For Thursday and
possibly even Friday, model trends to this point have shifted the
location of the stationary boundary further north with each run,
which decreases confidence in showers and storms providing much-
needed relief to the forecast area. This would support continued hot
temperatures especially across far southern Kansas heading into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Isolated showers will drop slowly southward across central
Kansas overnight. Winds could briefly switch around to the north
over parts of central then switch back around to the south.
South winds will increase during the afternoon hours on Monday.
VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ