466
FXUS63 KICT 070656
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
156 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers with isolated or widely scattered storms
  today with periodic showers lingering tonight into early
  Thursday.

- Warmer above normal temperatures are expected to return over the
  weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

A mid/upper trough over the Southern High Plains early this morning
is progged to move eastward over southern Kansas today before
emerging over the Middle Mississippi Valley area late tonight.
Numerous showers and isolated or widely scattered storms are
expected to impact the area today, most numerous through the early
afternoon hours. With elevated CAPE around 500-600 J/KG and mid-lvl
lapse rates of 7-7.5 over southern KS we could see some small hail
at times through the morning hours but nothing severe is anticipated.
Some shower activity could linger on the backside of the system
tonight and early on Thursday, especially across southeast KS before
the gradually diminishing from west to east. With some breaks in the
clouds and minimal inhibition on Thursday afternoon, we could see
some shower and storm activity develop during peak heating. A brief
pulse-type storm could bring gusty winds and small hail but
organized severe storms are not anticipated. Minimal insolation and
widespread showers will dampen the diurnal curve today and some
locations may struggle to reach 60. Cool conditions will persist on
Thursday with some subtle modification. Afternoon highs are
expected to rise in the upper 60s/around 70.


Friday-Tuesday...The mid/upper trough over the area today is progged
to sink southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley area over the
weekend before lifting north again early next week. This could
result in some shower activity impacting southeast KS late Sun into
Mon but better chances for precipitation may remain east of the
area. As we come under increasing influence from the mid/upper ridge
building into the central CONUS we expect rising heights/increasing
thickness supporting rising temperatures across the area. Above
normal temperatures are expected to return over the weekend with
values rising into the mid/upper 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Cloud heights will continue to lower for the overnight hours
dropping into the IFR category and are expected to linger for
much of the day on Wednesday. Meanwhile numerous showers with
some occasional drizzle will affect much of the region over the
next 24hrs. A few thunderstorms could develop during the
afternoon hours on Wednesday across southern Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ