910
FXUS63 KICT 101904
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
204 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms could produce strong winds around
  60-70 mph and large hail up to quarter-size late this
  afternoon through the overnight hours.

- Training thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall could lead to
  areas of localized flooding or flash flooding this evening
  into the overnight hours, especially across southern and
  eastern Kansas.

- Drier conditions and a warming trend expected to begin by
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING..

A couple of loosely organized MCS`s early this morning have left a
residual outflow boundary along the KS/OK stateline as of early this
afternoon. The sharpness of the OFB is being reinforced by
differential heating caused by the remaining clouds over Kansas.
Temperatures in northern Oklahoma are already easily surpassing 90
degrees while temperatures in southern Kansas remain in the low
to mid 80s. However, it should be noted that the outflow
boundary appears to be retreating northward as evidenced by
surface winds flipping back around to the southeast across
northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. Some shallow convection
has been developing along this boundary through most of the late
morning and early afternoon hours which has kept isolated
showers around across much of south-central Kansas. The surface
pattern is very messy, but it appears as though the synoptic
front was located across northeast/central Kansas early this
afternoon and pushing southward (based this off of radar and the
KTWX VAD). The frontal boundary looks to merge with the
existing outflow boundary as destabilization is maximized south
of the outflow boundary. Thus, it appears increasingly likely
that widespread convection will develop along and south of the
Kansas Turnpike later this afternoon. Shear will be on the
meager side, but with 3000-4000+ J/kg of SBCAPE should be enough
for strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon. Main
concerns would be up to 60 mph downburst winds and up to quarter
sized hail. Also, PWATs above 1.5 inches along with storm
motion parallel to the boundary will support heavy rainfall and
localized flooding. The antecedent conditions are a little
unclear, but it still likely won`t take much for flooding to
occur in flood prone and low- lying areas.

Meanwhile, eyes will also be watching the High Plains later
this afternoon and evening as a stout shortwave trough
translates eastward over the Rockies. This will help to trigger
scattered showers and storms that will likely coalesce into an
MCS that will travel across southwest and southern Kansas later
tonight. Chances for damaging winds from this complex of storms
will be better across southwest Kansas, but 60-70 mph winds
cannot be ruled out as far east at Wichita overnight into early
Monday morning. Additionally, this complex of storms will merge
with areas of ongoing convection and will serve to prolong heavy
rainfall likely already occurring across southern Kansas late
tonight. While there isn`t a strong signal for especially heavy
rainfall in any given location, widespread rainfall totals of
2-4 inches by Monday morning appear increasingly likely,
especially along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.

A brief break from showers and storms is likely to occur mid-morning
through early afternoon on Monday. However, additional development
across Oklahoma is likely to drift northward into southern and
southeast Kansas late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. The
intensity and coverage of this activity is expected to be lower, but
additional meaningful could prolong any flooding impacts from
tonight`s activity.

...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Additional rounds of isolated showers and storms will be possible
both Tuesday and Wednesday across southeast Kansas as the residual
frontal boundary stalls and washes out across Oklahoma and southern
Missouri. Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually start to recover by
midweek as a weak upper ridge builds in over the central plains.
This will also help to ultimately end rain chances across the
forecast area through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Another challenging TAF period is expected with multiple rounds
of convection expected. This morning`s -SHRA/TSRA has moved
east of the terminals and predominately dry conditions should
persist through mid to late afternoon. The next round of TSRA is
expected to develop across southeast KS after 4 PM and have
introduced a TEMPO TSRA group at CNU from 23/03Z. Also
introduced PROB30 groups at ICT and HUT late this afternoon into
the early evening for the potential of isolated storm
development. Otherwise, the best chances arrive after 06Z as a
complex of storms moves across the region from west to east. The
bulk of convection should clear the terminals by 14Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 5 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday
morning for KSZ049>053-067>072-082-083-091>095-098.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BRF