450
FXUS63 KICT 051135
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon
  and evening along/north of Highway 50, with a few strong to
  severe storms possible.

- Off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast
  through the next several days, with low confidence on timing
  and location. A handful of strong to severe storms are
  possible.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages the
  next several days, with highs generally in the upper 80s to
  mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

PRECIPITATION:

TODAY...Expect hit-or-miss showers across central and eastern Kansas
today, ahead of a mid-level trough progressing east, amidst
unseasonably high precipitable waters. Thinking chances by this
afternoon will be highest mainly over eastern/southeast KS. Brief
heavy downpours will be the primary hazard with this activity.

Our attention then turns to the potential for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, mainly
along/north of Highway 50, as a weak cold front stalls across
central KS. This activity has the potential to be strong to severe,
given steeper mid-level lapse rates and greater instability, amidst
marginal deep layer shear. The hail threat should be marginal,
although hefty DCAPE values should support a strong to severe
downburst threat. The severe threat should end by late evening,
although non-severe activity could fester past midnight aided by a
weak low-level jet, and mid-level troughing approaching from the
north.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Per deterministic and ensemble consensus,
the upper ridge is expected to flatten some, remaining primarily
south-southwest of the region the next several days. This will keep
Kansas within a favorable storm track consisting of subtle mid-upper
perturbations approaching from the west-northwest. This in concert
with a couple weak stalled frontal zones across the area should
support continued periodic shower/storm chances Sunday through next
week. While widespread organized severe weather appears unlikely,
modest flow aloft should support the deep layer shear needed for at
least a handful of strong to severe storms. The hail threat will
likely be marginal, with strong to severe wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall the main threats, especially during the late
afternoon and evening hours each day.

TEMPERATURES:

With the upper ridge flattening some and remaining primarily south-
southwest of the area, along with periodic shower/storm chances,
mostly seasonable temperatures are expected for at least the next 7
days across the region. Overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s-
low 70s, and daytime highs ranging from the upper 80s to the mid 90s
are probable, with a low chance for intense above average summer
heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A mid-level trough will be the focus for hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms through the day across central and eastern Kansas.
Severe weather is not expected. For this morning, patchy MVFR
to IFR clouds will impact location mainly along and west of the
Flint Hills. For late this afternoon and evening, a few
thunderstorms are expected generally along/north of Highway 50.
The strongest activity will be capable of dime size hail, heavy
rain, and 65 mph winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK